March Madness began yesterday with one insane game and one dud. Hopefully, tonight’s games are both appealing. That said, I went to the AI Model and looked for the best bets for each First Four game on the schedule tonight.
Here are the best NCAAB bets from the top-rated sportsbooks to consider before you place your wager. Let’s get after it.
Picks Summary
- Mount St. Mary’s-American University Over 129 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Xavier-Texas Under 151.5 (-110) at Bet365
Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers vs. American University Eagles
Wednesday, March 19, 2025 – 06:40 PM EDT at UD Arena
The AI Model likes American University and Mount St. Mary’s to score 130 points combined. Meanwhile, the total for this game is stuck at 129. Consider the Over.
Can Mount St. Mary’s Score Inside?
The Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers have turned the ball over 21.7% of the time this season. That can’t happen against American.
The Mountaineers must control the ball and move slower on offense. They will adjust and do just that.
Meanwhile, the Mount has hit nearly 35% from downtown and 50.1% from inside the arc. They’ll be fine from three but should be even better from inside the arc.
After all, American has allowed teams to hit 53.1% from two-point range this season.
The Mountaineers will want to take advantage of that. While they take many threes, they’ll want to play slower and be more disciplined, including getting easier shots down low.
At least American Doesn’t Turn The Ball Over!
The American University Eagles have gained only 23.8% of offensive rebounds with a super low FTA/FGA. They won’t take advantage of either area.
They’re also one of the slowest offenses in the nation. However, that has allowed American University to keep turnovers down to 16.8%. That should stay the same since the Mount has added only 15.9% of turnovers per game.
In addition, American University has still shot 35.1% from deep and 51.1% from inside the arc. They’ve shot the ball better than Mount St. Mary’s throughout the season. The Eagles have also knocked down 75.9% of foul shots. While they don’t get there often, if this game is close late in the game, the fouls will still pile up.
The total is already low as it is. So if both teams stay disciplined, keep turnovers down, and shoot well from the field, this game should still get over the total.
The Pick
I’ll ride with the AI Model and take the Over 129 in tonight’s first First Four matchup between two 16-seeds.
This should be a great one!
NCAAB Pick: Mount St. Mary’s-American University Over 129 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Dare to Be Perfect?
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Xavier Musketeers vs. Texas Longhorns
Wednesday, March 19, 2025 – 09:10 PM EDT at UD Arena
The AI Model believes Xavier will add a 77-74 win over Texas in tonight’s second First Four game. That means we’ll get 151 points, but the total at Bet365 is at 151.5. The Under is the play in this game.
No Second Chances For Xavier!
The Xavier Musketeers have shot a 53.9% effective field goal percentage and have added a high rate of foul shots.
That said, Xavier has struggled to add a high rate of offensive rebounds. Overall, this season, Xavier has earned 25.2% of offensive rebounds per game.
That will hurt, especially since Texas allowed only a 48.4% effective field goal percentage this season. Texas will limit Xavier from the field and likely won’t let Xavier to earn many second chances.
That won’t help Xavier offensively.
Xavier Is Even Better On The Defensive Glass
It’s also not like Texas will dominate the offensive glass, either. Xavier has limited teams to 25.2% of offensive rebounds per game this season.
In addition, the Musketeers have given up just a 28.1 FTA/FGA ratio, which ranks 58th in the nation.
Don’t expect Texas to get to the foul line much or add second chances off offensive rebounds.
Meanwhile, the Musketeers have still limited teams to a 50.6% effective field goal percentage. This isn’t a big number defensively, but it’s good enough with Xavier holding teams off the glass and away from the foul line.
The Pick
Consider the Under 151.5 in this exciting 11-seed matchup.
NCAAB Pick: Xavier-Texas Under 151.5 (-110) at Bet365Â (check our Bet365 Review)
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
