Champ Week is here. This is the week when college football determines their conference champions, so we’ve got some very important games coming up – but only a handful.
The abbreviated schedule isn’t ideal for our college football player props Week 15. This week may be a bit more challenging, but each title game will be watched by millions of interested bettors, so our recommended NCAAF prop bets should gain healthy value from all the casual football fans flooding the marketplace.
NCAAF Prop Bets Week 15 At-a-Glance
As fate would have it, our three featured players are all running backs, which is fine – these are some of the most prominent “skill” players this sport has to offer. But tailbacks are still third fiddle in the public eye behind quarterbacks and wideouts. That explains their betting value to some extent.
That also puts this week’s NCAAF player props on the sharper side, even if we’re pounding the Over, so use a sharp-friendly sportsbook if you’re going to lay serious money on these wagers.
Duke’s Nate Sheppard To Score Last Touchdown (+650)
Duke Blue Devils vs. Virginia Cavaliers – Saturday, December 6, 8:00 PM ET
It seems preposterous, but Duke (7-5 SU, 5-6-1 ATS) can become the kingmaker for this year’s College Football Playoff by beating No. 18 Virginia (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) this Saturday. If the Blue Devils win their ACC title bout, they’ll almost certainly fall outside the five highest-ranked conference champions – and an at-large bid is highly unlikely. Will Tulane end up in the CFP instead? It could happen.
Amidst all that drama, the NCAAF projections at OddsTrader are lighting up with Expected Value on these Nate Sheppard props. You could also go with Sheppard to score the first touchdown (+750, 16.7% EV), or any touchdown (–130, 8.8% EV) if you want a lower-variance option. Any way you slice it, Sheppard (10 combined TDs in 12 games) has rounded into form this freshman year, and he’s about to face the No. 25-ranked defense on the latest F+ Ratings at BCF Toys.
Indiana’s Roman Hemby Over 55.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Indiana Hoosiers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes – Saturday, December 6, 8:00 PM ET
This may be a battle of undefeated Big Ten teams, but No. 2 Indiana (12-0 SU, 7-5 ATS) is getting 4.5 points this Saturday versus No. 1 Ohio State (12-0 SU, 10-1-1 ATS), and we’re getting solid underdog value on these Roman Hemby props.
Hemby (72.2 rushing yards per game) has thrived as a Hoosier after four years at Maryland; Saturday’s matchup props have Hemby generating 21.3% EV at this relatively modest total, which does take into account OSU’s top-ranked defense.
Georgia’s Nate Frazier Over 61.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Georgia Bulldogs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide – Saturday, December 6, 4:00 PM ET
There’s more than just the SEC title at stake here – although a loss wouldn’t be all that devastating for No. 10 Alabama (10-2 SU, 7-3-2 ATS) and their CFP dreams. There’s a good chance (ESPN says around 40%) they’ll get an at-large bid regardless, but the key here is that No. 4 Georgia (11-1 SU, 5-6-1 ATS) is the superior team on paper, and these Nate Frazier props are dripping with value for Saturday’s contest.
We’ll happily recommend that Rushing Yards prop at 19.5% projected EV versus the No. 10-ranked defense in the nation.
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