There are 16 games on today’s MLB slate, including many day games and night games. I’ve elected to find bets in the nighttime using the AI Model so more people reading can follow.
Let’s have a day at the top-rated sportsbooks! And don’t forget to check out our YouTube channel for more betting advice. Today, our expert covered the Mets vs. Red Sox and Angels vs. Athletics games!
Picks Summary
- Nick Castellanos Under .5 Runs (+125)
- Lawrence Butler Under .5 Runs (+110)
- Josh Naylor Under .5 Runs (-150)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies
Wednesday, May 21, 2025 – 08:40 PM EDT at Coors Field
The AI Model believes Nick Castellanos will earn only .411 runs tonight. Yet, his consensus line is .5, with the Under juiced to +125. That’s a huge play.
Castellanos Looks Awful Against Lefties
Nick Castellanos has added a .061 ISO and wOBA of .266 with no walks against left-handed pitching over the last 30 days. While he’s taking on an inexperienced lefty, he’s still facing a lefty with good numbers against righties so far.
Carson Palmquist will take the hill, and he’s limited his first 15 righties to a .275 wOBA. He’s also walked only 6.7% of those righties and allowed 35.7% of hard contact.
It won’t be easy for Castellanos to find his way around the bases, let alone get on base.
The Pick
I’ll stick with the AI Model and grab Castellanos to add below .5 runs in tonight’s game. Behind him in the lineup are J.T. Realmuto and Alec Bohm, who are also two righties who have struggled against lefties. Even if Castellanos gets on base, there’s not much potential to get him in with those guys batting behind him.
MLB Pick: Nick Castellanos Under .5 Runs (+125) at Bet365
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics
Wednesday, May 21, 2025 – 10:05 PM EDT at Sutter Health Park
The AI Model thinks Lawrence Butler of the Athletics will add .371 runs. Yet, his line of .5 has the under at +110 odds. That’s another massive play using the AI Model.
Lawrence Butler Continues To Struggle!
The Athletics were hoping for big things from Lawrence Butler this year. However, the lefty has really struggled against right-handed pitching this season. He has hit a .287 wOBA and has struck out 28.8% of the time against righties in the last month. He’s also walked only 4.1% of the time and has a .261 BABIP.
Tonight, he’ll battle Jack Kochanowicz of the Angels, who has gained 50.9% of ground balls against lefties over the last 30 days. He’s also limited lefties to 15.1% of line drives. He’s not an elite right-handed pitcher, but with how Butler has swung the bat, Kochanowicz should be able to pitch by Butler tonight. He’s in a lineup with just four hitters hitting a wOBA above .319.
The Pick
I’ll take Butler to add below .5 runs.
MLB Pick: Lawrence Butler Under .5 Runs (+110) at Bet365
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Wednesday, May 21, 2025 – 10:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
Our AI Model predicts Josh Naylor will add .224 runs tonight. Yet, his line of .5 has the under at -150. There’s plenty of value in taking his Under.
Will Josh Naylor Even Get On Base?
The Arizona Diamondbacks have some incredible hitters in their lineup against righties. However, Josh Naylor has only hit a .123 ISO against his last 66 righties.
Meanwhile, he’ll face Dustin May, who has limited his first 110 lefties to a .111 ISO and wOBA of .278. May has held those same lefties to 56.8% of ground balls and allowed only 16.2% of fly balls. He’s even gained 23% of whiffs against lefties this season.
Naylor hasn’t struck out much against lefties, but he’s also not hitting for much power. He’s hit 48% of ground balls against righties and only 20% of fly balls over the last 30 days.
That won’t give him a good shot at getting on base. Plus, Pavin Smith, Gabriel Moreno and Alek Thomas have all hit a below-average ISO against righties and will likely hit behind Naylor in the lineup. That’s not ideal if you’re looking for Naylor to score.
The Pick
I’ll take Josh Naylor to earn below .5 runs tonight.
MLB Pick: Josh Naylor Under .5 Runs (-150) at Bet365
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
