Baseball is full of surprises. The hottest team in the majors right now? The Oakland Athletics, winners of six straight as we write this. Meanwhile, the defending champion Houston Astros have dropped five of their last seven to fall 4.5 games behind the Texas Rangers in the American League West.
Recent trends do not impress the computers at OddsTrader. They don’t want the A’s in Wednesday’s MLB computer picks; they prefer Houston, and they’ve got their all-seeing electronic eye on two more games from this very busy slate.
Picks Summary
- Astros (-250) at SBK
- Padres (-135) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Phillies-Diamondbacks Under 10 (-119) at SBK
Washington Nationals vs. Houston Astros
Wednesday, June 14, 2023 – 08:10 PM EDT at Minute Maid Park
Bounce Back Spot
Houston (37-29, minus-0.61 betting units) might be a decent fade candidate against certain other teams, but these Nationals (26-38, plus-3.34 units) don’t fit the bill – not after losing six of their last seven games. The OT computers project the Astros to win Wednesday’s tilt 4.7 runs to three.
As difficult as things have been for Houston lately, they did have to contend with both the Toronto Blue Jays and Cleveland Guardians on the road. Three of their five aforementioned losses were by a single run; factor in their 0-4 record on the season in extra innings, and you can see where the Astros have been unlucky thus far.
It’s Just Math
Or you could look at Houston’s plus-55 run differential. That translates to an expected pythagorean record of 40-26, which means the Astros have lost the equivalent of three games just because the scores happen to reset every nine innings or so.
Washington (minus-45, 27-37) has also been slightly unlucky this year based on run differential, but this is still the worst team in the National League East. And they have one of the worst No. 1 starters in the majors: Josiah Gray (4.91 xFIP), who gets the nod Wednesday opposite true ace Framber Valdez (2.85 xFIP).
The Pick
Not that Gray doesn’t show promise. This is only his second full season in the bigs, and he’s Washington’s second-ranked prospect according to FanGraphs, having come over from the Los Angeles Dodgers in the deal that sent Max Scherzer and Trea Turner westward.
Gray has yet to develop his talents to the same level as Valdez, now in his sixth year with the Astros. This is a bigger mismatch than it might appear; we think the computers and the betting public are over-valuing Gray based in part on his 3.00 ERA, thus giving us value with Houston at -250 or longer.
MLB Pick: Astros (-250) at SBK
Cleveland Guardians vs. San Diego Padres
Wednesday, June 14, 2023 – 09:40 PM EDT at Petco Park
Safe Zone?
Is it safe yet to bet on the Padres (31-34, minus-10.07 units)? They’ve fallen to fourth in the NL West, but they also took two of three from the last-place Colorado Rockies – San Diego is now undefeated in their past four series.
Then again, the Guardians (31-34, minus-4.73 units) just won two of three against Houston, and they’re on a five-series undefeated streak. So let’s not go too crazy with the Padres despite the OT computers projecting them to beat Cleveland 4.3 runs to 2.9 this Wednesday.
Wacha, Wacha, Wacha You Want?
Chances are the Guardians will do better than that with Michael Wacha (4.43 xFIP) taking the mound for San Diego. We’re not fooled by his 3.18 ERA, which would be Wacha’s career low if he can maintain it for a full season – highly doubtful given his unusually low 6.7% home run-to-flyball ratio through 12 starts.
Aaron Civale (2.31 ERA, 4.38 xFIP) is even more suspect for Cleveland with his 4.2% HR/FB ratio, so we’ll stick with the computers and the Padres, but only for a small sum.
MLB Pick: Padres (-135) at Caesars Sportsbook
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Wednesday, June 14, 2023 – 09:40 PM EDT at Chase Field
For Sale!
This price might not be available much longer; other online sportsbooks at press time have Wednesday’s total at 8.5 runs, with the Under pegged at +100, but that would also be fine with the OT computers – they’ve got Arizona beating the Phillies 4.3 runs to 3.7.
The powers that be have already decided to close the roof at Chase Field, so that should help keep the scoring down at what’s otherwise a surprisingly neutral stadium for run production, according to its 100 park factor for runs (No. 12 overall) at Baseball Savant.
The Pick
Also keeping a lid on scoring: Merrill Kelly (3.68 xFIP), who has the Under at 9-4 for Arizona in 13 starts. Ranger Suarez (3.56 xFIP) has the Over at 3-2-1 for Philly, but that’s with a .344 BABIP against that’s bound to recede in due time.
Bet accordingly – the computers have spoken.
MLB Pick: Under 10 (-119) at SBK
