Moneyline, or run line? Not every bettor thinks about the difference when they’re putting together their baseball bets – but they should. While the potential profit margin should be the same for both bets, some teams seem unusually gifted when it comes to winning by a single run.
Atlanta is one of those teams. As we go to press, they’re 12-8 in games decided by one run, and 3-1 in extra innings, making them a tasty fade candidate for our MLB computer picks against the run line. And the algorithms at OddsTrader are here to back us up with their latest MLB projections.
Picks Summary
- Rockies +1.5 (+100) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Tigers-Twins Under 8 (-105) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Rays-Athletics Over 8.5 (-115) at WynnBET
Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves
Thursday, June 15, 2023 – 07:20 PM EDT at Truist Park
Remember The Vig
This is one of those many games where the computers recommend the favorites on the moneyline and the underdogs on the run line. They’ve got Atlanta winning 5.2 runs to 4.2; as always, this projection doesn’t take the vigorish into account, but we will, and the Rockies do indeed look like the right call on the MLB odds board.
It’s not that Colorado (34-35 ATS, minus-4.35 betting units) is particularly good on the run line – they’ve actually made a small moneyline profit at plus 0.82 units. This is more about Atlanta, one of the worst run line teams in the majors at 30-37 ATS (minus-8.47 units).
Out With The Old…
Old-school betting principles suggest that baseball teams are fairly fortunate if they finish above .500 in 1-run games.
A really good bullpen can skew those results; Atlanta’s bullpen ranks seventh overall on the FanGraphs WAR charts, but closer Raisel Iglesias (3.65 xFIP) hasn’t been as stellar this year as he was for the Los Angeles Angels before getting dealt last August.
Whatever it is that’s bringing Atlanta down, we’re in good shape to take advantage with AJ Smith-Shawver making his second MLB start for the home side. Smith-Shawver may be Atlanta’s top-ranked prospect, but he’s also a very raw talent at age 20 and has yet to develop full command of his 94-mph fastball.
The Pick
Meanwhile, Kyle Freeland (4.76 xFIP) is down 3.10 moneyline units on a team record of 5-9, but two of those losses were by a single run, and two more came in games that Colorado lost 2-0.
Even if the Rockies have the worst hitting in the majors according to FanGraphs WAR, Freeland’s luck has to come around eventually – maybe even this Thursday in Hotlanta.
MLB Pick: Rockies +1.5 (+100) at Caesars Sportsbook
Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins
Thursday, June 15, 2023 – 07:10 PM EDT at Target Field
We’re hopping on board the Under train for this matchup, which features the No. 20-ranked batting order in Twins (Under 37-28-3) taking on the No. 28-ranked Tigers (Over 33-30-2) in a battle of light-hitting American League Central rivals.
Adding to our betting value: Sonny Gray (3.59 xFIP) and his 8-5 Under record through 13 starts for Minnesota, including 5-2 at Target Field. Gray will pitch opposite a neutral commodity in Matthew Boyd (4.79 xFIP), who’s split his totals down the middle at 6-6 thus far.
There’d be more value if either team had a good bullpen. Minnesota also ranks No. 20 in that department, with Detroit at No. 23 according to FanGraphs WAR. But at least they’ll have that 10-mph breeze blowing in from right field to help our cause.
Make it a small bet on Under 8, though, given that the OT computers have the Twins winning 4.9 runs to three.
MLB Pick: Under 8 (-105) at Caesars Sportsbook
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Oakland Athletics
Thursday, June 15, 2023 – 03:37 PM EDT at Oakland Coliseum
Live To Fight Another Day
Another game with the Oakland Athletics, another chance to bet the Over. But is it already too late? The A’s have the Over at 35-31-3 this year, but only 1-4 in their last five as Oakland has decided all of a sudden to stop tanking and rattle off seven straight wins.
We’re not buying it. There are 162 games in the MLB regular season, and there will be times when even a team as bad as the A’s can put together a modest win streak. Granted, Paul Blackburn (4.31 xFIP) has helped stabilize Oakland’s rotation since coming off the injured list in late May, splitting his totals at 1-1-1.
The Pick
Taj Bradley (3.11 xFIP) has also pitched very well for Tampa Bay in his rookie campaign. But the Over is 5-3 in his eight starts, and it should be a warm afternoon by the Bay with temperatures in the low 70s and light breezes heading towards centerfield.
The OT computers have the Rays winning 5.9 runs to four, so bet accordingly – the computers have spoken.
MLB Pick: Over 8.5 (-115) at WynnBET
