
With a full slate on the horizon tonight, I’ve added multiple underdog bets for tonight using the AI Model. Let’s try to hit a couple and earn some profit tonight!
The Picks
- Marcelo Mayer Under 0.5 Hits (+104)
- Willy Adames Under 0.5 Hits (+140)
- Mauricio Dubon Under 0.5 Hits (+152)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners
Tuesday, June 17, 2025 – 9:40 PM EDT at T-Mobile Park
The AI Model predicts Marcelo Mayer will smack just .534 hits tonight. His hits prop is at .5, with the under at +104 MLB odds. Ultimately, his under has an expected value of 9.6%. That’s really good!
Is There Too Much Pressure on Marcelo Mayer?
The Red Sox are turning to their youth after trading away Rafael Devers to the Giants. Mayer has hit a .308 ISO and wOBA of .373 against his last 44 righties. However, he’s also struck out more than 27% of the time over the previous month against righties.
Mayer has been a little lucky, too. He’s added 50% of ground balls and only 14.3% of line drives. His ISO and wOBA numbers are probably higher than they should be. After all, Mayer has hit a .280 BABIP over the last month.
He’ll take on Bryan Woo of the Mariners. While Woo has given up a high ISO and wOBA for lefties over the last 30 days, he’s still limited line drives to 21.6%. Because of that, he’s been able to keep lefties to a .217 BABIP and has limited damage.
There’s a lot of pressure on the young guys to step up. I wouldn’t count on it at a consistent basis. Take Mayer to go Under .5 hits.
MLB Pick: Marcelo Mayer Under 0.5 Hits (+104) at Caesars Sportsbook
Cleveland Guardians vs. San Francisco Giants
Tuesday, June 17, 2025 – 9:45 PM EDT at Oracle Park
The AI Model believes Willy Adames will add only .529 hits in tonight’s game for the Giants. However, his hits prop is stuck at .5, with the under juiced to +140. There’s a lot of value in fading Adames tonight.
How Will Adames Hit With Devers Behind Him?
The San Francisco Giants made a monster trade to land Rafael Devers. He’ll likely bat behind Willy Adames against the right-hander Slade Cecconi tonight.
Devers has had a lot of success against righties as a left-handed slugger. However, Adames hasn’t. Even with Devers behind him, it’s unlikely Adames will get some quality pitches to hit.
Adames has hit a .097 ISO and wOBA of .254 against his last 73 righties. He’s also struck out more than 30% of the time against righties in the previous month.
Ultimately, he’s hit more than 51% of ground balls and has only smacked 12.2% of line drives against righties over the last 30 days. As a result, he’s added a .250 BABIP and rarely hits hard contact against righties now.
That said, Cecconi has still added 27.3% of strikeouts against righties this season. There’s no reason why he can’t add strikeouts against Adames tonight.
I’m fading Adames and taking his under in the hits category.
MLB Pick: Willy Adames Under 0.5 Hits (+140) at Caesars Sportsbook
Houston Astros vs. Athletics
Tuesday, June 17, 2025 – 10:05 PM EDT at Sutter Health Park
The AI Model thinks Mauricio Dubon will record only .565 hits in tonight’s game. With his player prop at .5 hits, the under is the play, especially since his under is at +152 odds. This is another insane plus-money player prop to consider tonight.
Dubon Doesn’t Look Locked In Against Lefties
Mauricio Dubon will likely bat eighth for the Astros tonight against JP Sears against the Athletics. He’s a righty who only has nine plate appearances against lefties over the last month. However, those nine plate appearances haven’t been ideal.
He’s hit 62.5% of ground balls and has earned a 0% barrel percentage with a .250 BABIP.
While JP Sears hasn’t been electric, he’s at least limited walks to 4.2%. Sears has been a little unlucky with balls in play, giving up a .348 BABIP. Look for that number to decrease, especially when Sears gets to face hitters like Dubon, who consistently hit the ball into the ground.
Take Dubon to go Under .5 Hits.
MLB Pick: Mauricio Dubon Under 0.5 Hits (+152) at Caesars Sportsbook
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