The Oklahoma City Thunder will take on the Denver Nuggets in a pivotal Game 7 matchup in the Western Conference’s second round of the Playoffs.
The winner of today’s game will take on the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference Finals. However, the loser will pack up their bags and wait for next year.
Ultimately, the Thunder were the best overall team in the Western Conference during the regular season. However, they’re facing a Nuggets team that previously won a championship. The Nuggets have more experience, but the Thunder probably have more talent and depth.
Additionally, the Nuggets could be without Aaron Gordon today. Gordon hurt his hamstring in Game 6 and is currently questionable for Game 7. He has been a star for the Nuggets during the playoffs and has made many winning plays. If he’s unable to go, the Nuggets will lack depth down the stretch.
Yet, our AI Model doesn’t seem to care. The model thinks the Thunder will win 110-103 in today’s showdown. That’s a seven-point win. However, you can find the Nuggets at +8.5 against the spread at Caesars. Additionally, the consensus total is stuck at 214, but the AI Model believes there will be 113 points scored. The Under is the ideal play in this game, too.
If you’re looking for a player prop, the AI Model thinks Aaron Wiggins will score 6.951 points today. However, the OKC guard has a consensus line of 4.5. That’s a steal.
We’ll talk about these three plays below.
The Picks
- Nuggets +8.5 (-115)
- Under 214 (-110)
- Aaron Wiggins Over 4.5 Points (-135)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Sunday, May 18, 2025 – 3:30 PM EDT at PaycomCenter
The Nuggets Are For Real!
The Oklahoma City Thunder earned one massive blowout win in Game 2. However, the rest of the games in this series have been reasonably close.
It’s already 3-3 in the series, and the Nuggets just added 119 points at home against the Thunder in a 12-point win. In addition, if you remove Game 2, the Nuggets lose their other two games by five and seven.
The Thunder have been the best defense in the NBA Playoffs. However, Oklahoma City has still allowed 30.5% of offensive rebounds and a 23.8 free-throw rate.
These are two areas where the Nuggets have excelled against the Thunder. Denver has grabbed nearly 32% of offensive rebounds in the playoffs and has added a 20.8 free-throw rate. Don’t be surprised if this continues against the Thunder.
While Oklahoma City will force difficult shots, the Nuggets should be able to add more second chances. The biggest thing for the Nuggets is keeping turnovers down. That’s been an issue in the playoffs and throughout the season.
Look for the Nuggets to play slower and limit possessions.
NBA Pick: Nuggets +8.5 (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
The Thunder Aren’t Shooting It Well Either!
The Nuggets haven’t shot the ball very well, and the Thunder haven’t either. Oklahoma City has earned a 52.4% effective field goal percentage while adding only 27.6% offensive rebounds.
They’re shooting poorly and not gaining as many offensive rebounds as the Nuggets.
Because of their low turnover percentage, the Thunder have scored 116 points per 100 possessions in the playoffs. The Thunder should win the turnover battle, but in a slower-paced game, don’t expect Oklahoma City to return the favor and add a high rate of turnovers in this game, either.
Plus, Denver ranks 5th in the NBA Playoffs in offensive rebounds allowed. The Nuggets are also better at limiting free throws.
That’s why Under looks like a very good play in Game 7.
NBA Pick: Under 214 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Can Aaron Wiggins Earn Enough Volume?
Aaron Wiggins has scored just three points in his last two games. Still, in this playoff series, he’s earned at least 11 minutes in every game for the Thunder.
He’s also contributed at least five points in seven of his last ten games and has added at least five points in 75% of his previous 20 games.
What stood out the most in Game 6 was his usage percentage. It rose to 24.5% despite playing only 12.5 minutes in that game. In addition, he’s attempted at least three three-pointers in each of his last five games. He’s also hit at least 50% from deep in three of those five games.
With 10+ minutes and some volume from the three-point range, I like Wiggins to add at least five points.
Consider putting these three bets together for a same-game parlay for a much larger payout. The AI Model has been on fire. Let’s hope it stays that way!
NBA Pick: Aaron Wiggins Over 4.5 Points (-135) at Caesars Sportsbook
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