Even fans of the NFL’s Washington franchise have to admit the last few decades have been tough to watch and tough to care about as the team was the only one in the league that never won 11 games in the salary cap era (since 1994).
But sometimes you hire the right coaches who have experience elsewhere in the league, then you draft a transcendental quarterback like Jayden Daniels, and suddenly you’re a game away from the Super Bowl in the blink of an eye.
Daniels had the greatest rookie quarterback season in NFL history, and now all eyes will be on him for what he does as an encore. The team also made sure to build around him by adding the likes of Deebo Samuel and Laremy Tunsil to the offense while making more modest improvements on a defense that wasn’t championship caliber last year.
But the Commanders already blew away expectations in 2024, and no one will be sleeping on them this year. In fact, only 6 teams have better odds to win Super Bowl LX than the Commanders (+1800 at Bet365).
Their biggest sin is sharing the same division with the defending champions from Philadelphia, but no one has repeated as NFC East champs since the Eagles way back in 2001-04. Maybe this is Washington’s year.
Let’s look at our favorite player props and team props for the 2025 Commanders, all available at top-rated sportsbooks. Finally, a season where Washington is a team to look forward to watching.
The Picks
- Jayden Daniels Over 22.5 Passing Touchdowns (-130)
- Jayden Daniels – 2025 NFL MVP Award (+850)
- Terry McLaurin Over 975.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
- 2025 Commanders Over 9.5 Wins (-110)
- Washington Commanders to Make the Playoffs – Yes (-140)
- 2025 NFC East Winner – Washington Commanders (+225)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
National Football Conference Odds
Jayden Daniels
- Over/Under 22.5 Passing Touchdowns
Don’t worry about a “sophomore slump” for Daniels. For some of the greatest rookie quarterbacks in NFL history, like Dan Marino (1983), Ben Roethlisberger (2004), and Russell Wilson (2012), that didn’t happen. In fact, they got better, and they all reached the Super Bowl in Year 2.
We aren’t going to talk about that yet for Daniels and the Commanders, but his paltry passing touchdown line of 22.5 seems low given he threw 25 as a rookie while basically missing 6 quarters. He also rushed for 6 touchdowns while the rest of the team had 19 rushing touchdowns, so there were plenty of touchdowns to go around last year in Washington because of how well Daniels engineered drives.
The red zone was a spot where he could stand to get better, and the addition of Deebo Samuel is someone who might take some passing touchdown opportunities away with touchdown runs for the diverse skill player.
However, this offense should still be an elite one, and we’re fully believing in Daniels to raise his game and go over 22.5 passing touchdowns again.
NFL Pick: Jayden Daniels Over 22.5 Passing Touchdowns (-130) at Bet365
Jayden Daniels – 2025 NFL MVP Award
The touchdown passes were just an appetizer for the main course. Yes, Jayden Daniels is one of the best picks to win MVP this year, as his +850 odds at Bet365 are the 5th best among the field of top quarterbacks.
After what’s happened the last 2 years, let’s just say voters should not get bothered by another Lamar Jackson vs. Josh Allen debate. Joe Burrow may not win enough games to deserve it since the Bengals didn’t do much to fix the defense, and Patrick Mahomes will always have a shot but still has to deal with voter fatigue too.
If “let someone new like Josh Allen win it” was the very real standard some voters used last year to justify not giving Lamar a 3rd MVP, then giving the shiny new toy in Daniels an MVP makes sense.
He justifiably should have finished high in voting last year after making this team relevant for the 1st time in over 30 years:
- Daniels led 16 straight scoring drives (kneeldowns excluded) at one point, the longest known streak in NFL history.
- He tied a rookie record with 5 4th-quarter comeback wins, including one in the playoffs in Tampa Bay.
- Daniels threw 4 go-ahead touchdown passes in the final 30 seconds of the 4th quarter and overtime, the most ever in a season.
- The Commanders were 20-of-23 on 4th down thanks in large part to Daniels.
- He helped the players around him to career seasons, including receiver Terry McLaurin.
- He was outstanding in the postseason (86.0 QBR led all players).
- He was the only quarterback to beat the Eagles after September last season, throwing 5 touchdown passes against that top-ranked defense.
- Daniels and Lamar Jackson (2024) are the only quarterbacks in NFL history to throw for at least 3,500 yards and rush for at least 800 yards in the same season.
You had a rookie quarterback who checked all the boxes for an MVP-caliber season from a veteran. He converted on the tough downs in the big moments and he was consistent, clutch, and protected the ball well. He should have improvements at WR2 (Samuel) and left tackle (Laremy Tunsil), and it’d be hard for Dan Quinn’s defense to get any worse in 2025.
Daniels didn’t always get some of his best moments in nationally-televised games last year, so that hurt his ability to garner respect. This year, he’ll get a chance to face Mahomes and the Chiefs on a Monday night in Week 8, and that’s 2 weeks after the Monday night rematch with Chicago, the team he beat on a Hail Mary last year. He could pick up steam in MVP odds going into November.
Also, the late-season schedule is usually important for MVP. For some reason, the NFL waited until Weeks 16 and 18 for the Eagles and Commanders to meet in the NFC Championship rematches. They’ll host Dallas on Christmas too in between, so that’s high-exposure games for Daniels that could even determine the No. 1 seed, and yes, determine the MVP award if he is able to overtake the NFC East from the Eagles in those games.
Granted, C.J. Stroud was in this position a year ago. He was coming off the greatest rookie quarterback season where he looked like a veteran who elevated his teammates. They gave him Stefon Diggs at wideout and Danielle Hunter as a pass rusher. He was going to face the Chiefs on a Saturday in late December and host the Ravens (Lamar Jackson) on Christmas. How’d that turn out? His receivers were injured and his MVP case was slammed shut by October as he didn’t recreate the magic of 2023.
But Daniels looks to be even better than Stroud, and the story of overtaking the Eagles for the division late in the year is a huge ace in the hole for him to pull this one out. He’s my favorite pick of any player for MVP this year.
NFL Pick: 2025 NFL MVP Award – Jayden Daniels (+850) at Bet365
Terry McLaurin
- Over/Under 97.5 Receiving Yards
Terry McLaurin went through a lot of bad quarterbacks in Washington in 2019-23. He still posted 4 straight 1,000-yard seasons as the No. 1 wide receiver. In a single season with Daniels as his quarterback, McLaurin had 1,096 yards for a career-high 13 touchdowns. He also caught a career-high 70.1% of his targets.
You might think we’d play the line on his touchdowns (over/under 6.5) as getting 7 should be a piece of cake after 13 last year. But that’s getting into the weeds with a career season for a player who never had more than 5 touchdowns in 2020-23. You never know if Samuel will eat into that number and if last year was just a fluke for all his multi-touchdown games.
However, the yards are not a fluke. He’s one of the most consistent yardage receivers for his career with at least 1,000 yards in the last 5 seasons, he even had 919 as a rookie, and he’s been very good at staying healthy and not missing games.
We like Daniels to improve as a passer this year, so making his best receiver a 1,000-yard receiver is definitely a big part of that. Take the over for your NFL picks on McLaurin, who showed he is “Scary Terry” when he has a real passer delivering him the ball.
NFL Pick: Terry McLaurin Over 975.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bet365
2025 Commanders Regular Season Wins – Over/Under 9.5 Wins
The 2025 Commanders currently have the following odds at Bet365 for their season win total:
- Over 9.5 wins (-110)
- Under 9.5 wins (-110)
That’s a coin flip for the Commanders to finish 10-7 after a 12-5 season. Maybe that’s the oddsmakers baking in some steps back for the team this year, and maybe it’s an acknowledgement that they won a lot of close games.
However, if you have the right quarterback, you can consistently win close games as we’ve seen with Joe Montana, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Patrick Mahomes over the years. Daniels looks like someone who can be in that class after what he did as a rookie. Also, the defense should be better.
But this low-ball line might just be the fact that the NFC East schedule is tough this year. The Cowboys’ defense gave Daniels some issues last year for sure, and you have those games with the Eagles in the final 3 weeks, so any major injuries for this team could mean that player misses both of those games.
But they also have to play the NFC North, which had teams with incredible records last year, and Chicago should be stronger with coach Ben Johnson. Then they play the AFC West, which sent 3 teams to the playoffs, including the always tough Chiefs.
So, it definitely is a tougher schedule than the Commanders had in 2024 where they caught some underwhelming teams early to get off to a good start. However, they can sweep the Giants and get at least 3 wins in the NFC East alone, if not much better.
They are better than the Raiders, Seahawks, Dolphins (international game), and you have to give them a good shot against the Bears, Falcons, Chargers, Broncos, and Vikings.
We already picked Daniels for MVP, so 10 wins is a bare minimum. We have more in mind, but yes, we’ll gladly take the over for this team as those close wins are indicative of a quarterback who understands situational football and can deliver in those moments. That was not some fluke Tim Tebow run last year.
Also, we’re picking the Commanders to make the playoffs, which has -140 odds at BetUS. But they have the potential for better than just a wild card this year.
NFL Pick: 2025 Commanders Over 9.5 Wins (-110) at Bet365
NFL Pick: Washington Commanders to Make the Playoffs (-140) at Bet365
2025 Commanders – NFC East Finish
These are the odds at Bet365 for the 2025 winner of the NFC East:
- Eagles (-150)
- Commanders (+225)
- Cowboys (+600)
- Giants (+3000)
Again, no one has repeated as division champion in the NFC East since the Eagles in 2001-04, one of the longest and craziest active streaks in the NFL. While the Eagles have a very good team and are more than capable of ending the streak this year, the value is on the Commanders at +225 odds to keep it going.
If you look at why that streak has existed in this division, it’s because you have a shared quarterback power in this division. In the AFC East, Tom Brady (2001-19) and Josh Allen (2020-24) have ruled the roost with their teams. We see it with Mahomes in the AFC West with the Chiefs. It used to be Peyton Manning in the AFC South and then the AFC West.
In the NFC East, there were years when Donovan McNabb or Carson Wentz (2017) was on top, then there were years when Tony Romo and Dak Prescott were the best, Eli Manning had his moments for the Giants, and Washington pulled out some odd years with Robert Griffin III (2012) and Kirk Cousins (2015). A lot of those times one team falling off was the result of a quarterback injury like McNabb in 2005 or Romo in 2015.
With the NFC East right now, maybe this is just Washington’s turn with Daniels having an MVP season and getting the 12+ wins, including at least a key split with Philly in Weeks 16-18, to bring the NFC East title back to Washington.
In Jayden Daniels we trust.
NFL Pick: 2025 NFC East Winner – Washington Commanders (+225) at Bet365
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