The Paris Olympics resume on Sunday with action, from early morning onwards, across a variety of sports.
I am interested in both men’s basketball games: Puerto Rico vs. South Sudan and Team USA vs. Serbia. I am also interested in the tennis match between Casper Ruud and Taro Daniel.
Basketball Picks
- Puerto Rico +1.5 (-125)
- USA-Serbia Over 180.5 (-120)
Tennis Pick
- Taro Daniel +5.5 (-125)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Basketball
Puerto Rico vs. South Sudan
Sunday, July 28, 2024 – 05:00 AM ET at Pierre Mauroy Stadium
Great Value on Puerto Rico
Earlier, South Sudan could be found at top-rated sportsbooks as a clear underdog for its match against Puerto Rico. But now South Sudan is favored.
The reason is obvious: South Sudan nearly upset Team USA.
My issue with this reason is that this near upset says more about Team USA than about South Sudan. South Sudan was dogged by over 40 points against Team USA, but it’s not like South Sudan is all of a sudden a good team. Team USA played really poorly.
Because Team USA played so poorly against South Sudan, we are able to get Puerto Rico as the underdog in this game.
South Sudan’s Comparative Lack of Talent
There is a reason why South Sudan was such a large underdog.
This team has zero NBA players. Backers of this team will point to a few players with NBA experience, but I think this is a bad argument. There’s a reason why they aren’t in the NBA anymore. This team lacks talent.
With Puerto Rico, on the other hand, we get guard Jose Alvarado, who saw a lot of minutes in last year’s playoffs with the New Orleans Pelicans. Alvarado is, despite his lack of size, not afraid of taking the ball to the basket.
He is also an effective distributor who will get his teammates involved. A great team player and a unique source of energy, he’ll be the best player on the court.
The Pick
With Alvarado, Puerto Rico is the more talented team, and yet it’s an underdog because of Team USA’s poor play.
Basketball Pick: Puerto Rico +1.5 (-125) at Bet365
Basketball
USA vs. Serbia
Sunday, July 28, 2024 – 11:15 AM ET at Pierre Mauroy Stadium
What’s Wrong With Team USA?
Team USA is clearly the most talented basketball team in the Olympics, but it is struggling to beat inferior teams. The Americans nearly lost to South Sudan, and then, apparently failing to learn their lesson, they had to come back in order to avoid being upset by Germany.
This group is not putting together a good effort, as is apparent when you see how they play on defense with, for example, their laziness in transition.
Their laziness is also apparent on offense where they turn the ball over too much.
Another Perspective
Team USA does have nice wins against Serbia and Canada, two of the most highly regarded challengers. But it’s precisely the fact that Team USA already beat Serbia in recent play that will make the Americans overconfident on Sunday.
This is a classic spot where the favored team, having recently blown out its opponent, faces that opponent again and fails to perform nearly as well.
Because of Team USA’s habitual laziness, I think that Serbia is a great play.
My Favorite Pick
However, I want to focus on the total for this match, the thrust of my justification for the “over” being Team USA’s recent scorelines. The Americans gave up 100 points to South Sudan and then 88 to Germany.
Their lack of chemistry, their laziness, and their turnovers are allowing inferior teams to score a lot of points, which is a problem when the opponent now includes top player Nikola Jokic and sharpshooter Bogdan Bogdanovic.
Team USA’s collection of individual talent will still lead to plenty of points when they’re on offense – the Americans can win so many one-on-one battles and pass to so many good teammates if the defense devotes too much attention to a single player.
Given these considerations, I see the “over” as the best way to attack this game at sharp sportsbooks.
Basketball Pick: USA-Serbia Over 180.5 (-120) at Bet365
Tennis
Casper Ruud vs. Taro Daniel
Sunday, July 28, 2024 – 05:00 AM ET at Stade Roland-Garros
Head-to-Head
Casper Ruud is favored heavily in this matchup because he is the higher-ranked player. There is no doubt who is better on paper.
However, the reality has played out differently, as, in their one head-to-head meeting, Daniel upset Ruud. This victory took place last March at the Mexico Open.
Daniel, a Dangerous Underdog
Daniel repeatedly proves to be a dangerous underdog, as he’s not only beaten Ruud but, recently in May, he also nearly upset Andrey Rublev. Among other surprising performances, he also upset Matteo Berrettini in 2023.
This is somebody who can clearly beat top players. He is especially likable on Sunday because, as stats such as return point, win percentage, and break point conversion rate show, he prefers clay.
With Daniel, we are getting at attractive odds somebody who can clearly beat Ruud.
Tennis Pick: Taro Daniel +5.5 (-125) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler
