If Penn State coach James Franklin could say what he truly thought, he wouldn’t have given much thought to spending this Saturday in Indianapolis before the Michigan at Ohio State game. As luck would it, Penn State has a chance to create chaos for the inaugural college football playoffs by knocking off #1 Oregon.
Oregon coach Dan Lanning also wouldn’t admit he’s probably glad not facing the Buckeyes in a rematch for the conference championship. Not every team in that spot extracts revenge, nonetheless, if you can avoid it, all the better. This a matchup not many thought about until last weekend, let’s look at both clubs.
NCAAF Pick: Penn State +3.5 (-115) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Oregon Ducks
Saturday, December 7, 2024 – 8:00 PM ET at Lucas Oil Stadium
Penn State Tries to Overcome Themselves
Nittany Lions coach James Franklin is 1-13 SU against Top 5 opponents with his Penn State offense averaging just over 17 points a game. What happens in big games is a familiar story. The Nittany Lions look a little hesitant, play more tentatively than normal, and make more mistakes than usual.
Does Franklin give off the wrong vibe to his players the week of such games? No current or past player has ever said so. If it’s not that, then what?
If you go beyond the psychological aspect of Penn State, one element stands out if you’ve watched all or most of these contests. Talent-wise, the Nittany Lions are somewhat less talented and don’t have as many difference-makers. That comment can be questioned, understandably. But if you went back and watched their game with Ohio State, the Buckeyes had more talented players at enough different positions.
We are not suggesting Franklin change his coaching style, but having more “attitude” in play-calling would help. Let QB Drew Allar run the offense more aggressively and take the game to Oregon, not unlike what Washington did twice in beating the Ducks last season, might get them on the back of their web feet.
Bringing the right attitude can make Penn State forget about the past and give them the belief that this is their time.
Oregon Has To Play Their Way to knock Off Penn State
An ESPN writer called the 12-0 and #1 Oregon team “uninteresting”. Whether that was to incite comments for his article or to increase the number of eyeballs to his piece, only he and his editor know.
The Ducks are ranked in the Top 20 of FBS college football in scoring offense and defense, the Top 15 for total offense and defense, third down offense and defense, sacks and sacks allowed, and is in the Top 10 in the country for pass efficiency on each side of the line of scrimmage.
In a year where it doesn’t feel like there is truly a domineering squad, Oregon is “boringly” good in all facets of football and to be honest, tends to pick their spots when it comes to giving all-out effort.
If coach Lanning wants to use this as inspiration for his troops, he should, and starting Saturday night, they can prove to the nation they are the best team in the country and should be feared in the manner of recent Georgia, Alabama and Clemson teams the last decade.
After a sluggish start, QB Dillon Gabriel proved why he wanted to come to Eugene and ended up being the ideal fit for a team wanting to win a national championship. Lanning is as intense and edgy as ever in leading the program, but he’s a bit more measured and that comes across in the Ducks approach.
Oregon has the full package to remain the #1 in the country, now they need to show in Indiana.
Who Is the Right Side for the Nittany Lions vs. Ducks?
Here is some food for thought. These two faced seven common opponents.
- Oregon went 7-0 SU, 4-3 ATS, +19.7 PPG and +150 YPG.
- Penn St was 6-1 SU, 4-3ATS, +21.9 PPG and +143 YPP.
Not much to choose from.
Seeing we’re looking at the Big Ten Championship from a different perspective, let’s move forward. Everyone’s aware of Franklin’s history, however, we did find it interesting he ran up the score on Maryland last week.
Any loss to Oregon will not drop the Nittany Lions out of the playoffs. Then why not act out of character and be intensely aggressive? What do you have to lose?
Oregon on the other hand is locked in at #1. However, a loss could well drop them to a first-round bye. That means the Ducks have far more to lose than Penn State. Additionally, as mentioned, Lanning’s team played tight twice against the Huskies last year and in his first season beat North Carolina by a single point as 13-point favorites in the Ducks bowl game. Take the Nittany Lions with the points and an upset is possible.
NCAAF Pick: Penn State +3.5 (-108) at Bet365
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