The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns this weekend on August 10, and Sin City in Las Vegas will play host to this fight night’s octagon festivities.
Barlow, Veretennikov, Grigoriou, and Kazama are involved in two main card bangers, and I’m seeing some serious betting value up for grabs.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into my favorite UFC Vegas 95 main card analysis and predictions.
Picks Summary
- Barlow by KO/TKO (+120)
- Grigoriou by KO/TKO (+105)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
UFC Vegas 95 Event Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, August 10, 2024 – 05:00 PM ET
- Location: UFC Apex
- Scheduled Fights: 10
- Main Event: Marcin Tybura vs. Serghei Spivac (UFC Heavyweight Title Bout)
Danny Barlow vs. Nikolay Veretennikov
UFC Vegas 95 Welterweight Main Card Bout
Danny Barlow
With eight fights, eight wins, and six stoppage victories, life as a professional mixed martial artist has been sweet for 29-year-old Danny Barlow. Since arriving on our screens at Dana White’s Contender Series, he’s flourished with back-to-back knockout wins that have put notice on a fearsome offensive striking game.
“LeftHand2God” might be the coolest nickname in MMA today, and Barlow certainly lives up to it. He’s a massive welterweight at 6-foot-2 and boasts a level of athleticism and conditioning that’s seen him finish fights during any round of his bouts. That left hand is undeniably a problem for anyone tasked with facing him inside the octagon.
- Barlow Pro MMA Record: 8-0
- Barlow KOs: 5
- Barlow Submissions: 1
Nikolay Veretennikov
Stepping up on short notice to make his UFC debut, Nikolay Veretennikov is also a competitor who prefers striking, and nine of his 12 pro wins have arrived by KO/TKO to date. The problem is that his only UFC-level competition was Michael Morales, and when he was overwhelmed with a game plan that didn’t allow him much offense, frustrations set in as he was unanimously outclassed across three rounds.
- Veretennikov Pro MMA Record: 12-4-0
- Veretennikov KOs: 9
- Veretennikov Submissions: 1
Barlow vs. Veretennikov: Fight Tape Analysis
What’s most dangerous about Danny Barlow isn’t that he’s a nasty southpaw with varied combinations and knockout power; it’s that he can achieve an offensive pace in the striking realm over 15 minutes.
Barlow is huge, well-conditioned, with an imposing physicality, and is facing an opponent in Veretennikov stepping up on short notice with the potential of having a questionable gas tank. Yes, the underdog is capable of being on the feet. Still, too many outside variables are going against him, and ultimately, Barlow is a huge task for a late-notice promotional debut.
UFC Vegas 95 Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with top-rated sportsbooks places Barlow as a significant betting favorite, but -350 doesn’t align with the experience and questions we still have surrounding his potential.
Fortunately, Veretennikov isn’t likely to test unknowns such as Barlow’s grappling or wrestling, so we can count on a striking battle playing out. That said, Barlow is a mean southpaw brute who should have his way and eventually find the KO/TKO against an opponent with little time to prepare for a 15-minute bout.
UFC Pick: Barlow by KO/TKO (+120) [1u returns 1.20u profit] at Bet365
Charalampos Grigoriou vs. Toshiomi Kazama
UFC Vegas 95 Bantamweight Main Card Bout
Charalampos Grigoriou
Charalampos Grigoriou is a Contender Series alum of 2023, and with his aggression and punching on full display, he etched a round KO/TKO to impress the masses. Losing his UFC debut clearly wasn’t the plan, but with a solid Longo and Weidman MMA gym behind him, it’s unlikely he’ll fall to the same mistakes when faced with a lower level of competition.
- Grigoriou Pro MMA Record: 8-4-0
- Grigoriou KOs: 6
- Grigoriou Submissions: 0
Toshiomi Kazama
Signing Toshiomi hasn’t been the brightest move for the UFC in recent years, as this 10-4-0 competitor has completely faltered at an elite level. He was successful on the Asian regional scene. Still, he’s been stopped in consecutive fights via first-round knockouts amongst the shark-invested waters of the UFC bantamweight division.
- Kazama Pro MMA Record: 10-4-0
- Kazama KOs: 3
- Kazama Submissions: 5
Grigoriou vs. Kazama: Fight Tape Analysis
Kazama is the perfect bounce-back opponent for Grigoriou. And listen, neither bantamweight is going to conquer the 135lb weight class, or any division for that matter, but here we have a one-dimensional grappler with horrid durability in Kazama going against an all-out brawler in Grigoriou with knockout power.
The old expression ‘the writings on the wall’ might be a perfect fit for this bout, especially when Kazama’s most notable attribute throughout his career has been a grappling offense. Yet, he’s only displayed it when competing against absolute trash cans.
UFC Vegas 95 Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds have listed Grigoriou as a heavy betting favorite, and although this moneyline pricing isn’t pretty, it might feel justified come fight night.
Grigoriou is no world-beater; he’s somewhat sloppy in his technique, and a pure, aggressive style won’t see him reach the top 15 rankings anytime soon. However, it is arguably the most ideological style for an opponent such as Kazama, who has historically felt power and instantly wilted.
Kazama might have the grappling upside, but he requires some solid wrestling to back it up, and a wrestling-versed gym like Longo & Weidman presents a wealth of takedown threats for Grigoriou to prepare with, and before the judges intervene, the Cypriot’s power will gift him another knockout for the record.
UFC Pick: Grigoriou by KO/TKO (+105) [1u returns 1.05u profit] at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
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