This Wednesday has a trio of MAC games for the Week 12 college football slate. We’re going to focus our attention on the battle between Toledo and Miami (OH) for our Wednesday night football bets.
Best Bets for Toledo vs. Miami (OH)
For tonight’s NCAAF picks, we have Toledo on the road against Miami (Ohio) in a battle of 5-4 teams. The Toledo Rockets are 3-2 in conference play and are coming off a 42-3 win over Northern Illinois, the 3rd time this season Toledo won a MAC game by at least 35 points.
As for the Miami RedHawks, they’re 4-1 in the MAC but are coming off their first loss, a 24-20 battle with Ohio where they gave up a late touchdown pass. That snapped a 5-game winning streak following a bad 0-3 start to the season.
Wednesday Night Odds (Miami OH +3.5)
Toledo opened as a 3-point road favorite, but that line has moved to 3.5 or even 4 at select sportsbooks. While both teams are 6-3 ATS and 5-4 SU (and Miami has home-field advantage), Miami (OH) has faced one of the softest schedules (ranked 126th out of 136 teams).
Miami has lost badly to some of the lesser Big Ten teams to start the season, like Rutgers (45-17) and Wisconsin (17-0). Toledo, meanwhile, has actually played an easier schedule overall (ranked 130th) but has also been more dominant on the scoreboard.
The total for this MAC matchup has remained steady at 44.5 points. Toledo has gone over 44.5 points in 6-of-9 games compared to just 3-of-9 games for Miami.
Wednesday Night Pick
For our Wednesday night prediction, we are backing Miami at home to cover the spread with a sweet revenge angle at play.
Miami quarterback DeQuan Finn was at Toledo from 2019 to 2023, and he had his best college season in 2023 with 2,657 passing yards and 22 touchdown passes. He had a brief stop at Baylor in 2024 before transferring to Miami (OH) this season, where he has 9 touchdowns to 6 interceptions.
Toledo has a stingy defense that has yet to allow more than 28 points in any game this season, but they’ve also faced a very soft schedule of opposing offenses. Finn has decent dual-threat ability, and Miami’s run game is solid while they get their share of turnovers on defense.
One could argue the under might be the best call here, but Miami (OH) is 3-1 at home this season, only losing a 41-38 game to UNLV. Throw in home-field advantage and Finn wanting to end his college career with a win over his first school, and we’ll trust the RedHawks at home to cover the spread.
You can always bet on other college football games in a solid Week 12 lineup in college football.
Toledo’s Tucker Gleason (Over 225.5 Passing Yards)
For a favorite player prop in this matchup, we’re actually not going to do the typical revenge angle for Miami quarterback DeQuan Finn and go the other way instead.
We’re looking at Toledo quarterback Tucker Gleason, who has thrown for at least 237 yards in 6-of-9 games this year, including 3-of-4 on the road. Toledo’s running game is certainly capable on its own, but Gleason usually carries a share of the offensive load through the air.
With a game script where we’re already picking Miami (OH) to cover at home, we expect Gleason to have to throw enough so that over 225.5 passing yards should be the value play on his prop.
What We Covered and Next Steps
For the top Wednesday college football bets, the game we’re most looking forward to is in the MAC between Toledo and Miami (OH). We like the Miami RedHawks to cover the 3.5-point spread and for Toledo quarterback to go over 225.5 passing yards again to carry his offense.
Timing is very important in sports betting, and these lines can change dramatically before kickoff.
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