One of the UFC’s biggest superstars, Ronda Rousey (12-2), is gearing up for her first fight since 2016. In a headlining Most Valuable Promotions MMA bout this Saturday at 9 p.m. ET on Netflix, she’ll be taking on actress and former fighter Gina Carano (7-1), who hasn’t fought in 17 years.
Unsurprisingly, expectations are all over the place. Rousey undoubtedly had the higher peak, but does that matter given all the time these fighters have spent away from the ring? Should we wipe the slate clean, or are we in for a short, decisive bout?
Below, we’ll highlight the odds, take a look at some of the best available props, and offer up a fight prediction. No matter who wins, we can maximize our potential profits by sticking to the industry’s best offshore sportsbooks.
Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano Odds
Bovada provides Rousey vs. Carano odds. All lines are current at time of writing.
Moneyline
- Ronda Rousey (-650)
- Gina Carano (+450)
Rounds
- Over 1.5 (+150)
- Under 1.5 (-200)
Rousey is a significant favorite to win the fight at -650. Other offshore sportsbooks, including BetOnline and Everygame, have this bet priced around -600. In accordance with the under being favored at 1.5 rounds, the consensus is that Rousey will wrap this one up fairly quickly.
Best Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano Prop Bets
Prop bets are somewhat limited for this fight, given the long layoff for each contender. Still, there’s value to be found depending on which way you lean.
Fight to Complete One Full Round
Yes (-105) / No (-125)
This is the prop that oddsmakers are most split on. The fight not lasting an entire round is favored slightly at -125, but reaching a second round (or more) is close at -105. This is where context matters.
Rousey, who went 12-2 throughout her UFC career, earned all but one of her 12 victories in the first round. She was notorious for finishing things fast, often winning by submission and picking up the occasional knockout. The vast majority of her first-round victories also came within the first minute, and sometimes, within the first 30 seconds.
Does Rousey still have that in her? Age and time away from the sport are two major factors that take a toll, but Carano also isn’t your typical opponent.
Fight to Complete Two Full Rounds
Yes (+250) / No (-350)
Let’s say Carano extends things beyond the first round. Oddsmakers will let that slide. Completing two full rounds, though, is a bigger ask. -350 says it doesn’t happen, and +250 pays a decent amount if the fight progresses beyond the second.
Let’s revisit Rousey’s record. Of her 14 fights, only one went for two full rounds. Again, it’s worth wondering how much weight those figures carry 10 years removed, but the point stands that, even in losses, Rousey’s fights are quick and to the point.
Carano’s record also suggests a relatively quick fight, though to a lesser extent. She went 7-1 throughout her career, and five of those did not see the completion of two full rounds.
Fight to Complete Three Full Rounds
Yes (+400) / No (-650)
We’re reaching longshot territory. The return on “No” is now minuscule at -650, while “Yes” comes in at +400.
None of Rousey’s 14 fights ever went three full rounds. Carano’s didn’t, either. That doesn’t necessarily mean this bout won’t – neither combatant is in her prime – but history isn’t on your side if you believe Rousey and Carano will still be going at it after three complete rounds.
Fight to Complete Four Full Rounds
Yes (+600) / No (-1100)
The argument to be made for this prop (as well as the next one) is that the lack of recent fighting experience will create some level of parity between the two fighters and thus lead to something of a stalemate, where neither can create a significant enough advantage to earn a knockout or submission.
We’ve seen this in similar situations where both fighters are returning following lengthy retirements. One difference, though: Those fights tend to be exhibitions. This is fully sanctioned, with real consequences that count against career records.
Fight to Go the Distance
Yes (+750) / No (-1600)
This is an unprecedented outcome, as suggested by the latest odds. If you don’t see the fight going the distance, your best bet is to try to pinpoint which round it’ll end at. There’s no benefit to making this wager at -1600.
Is there value in saying the fight will go the distance? That’s debatable. The long layoff means things are less predictable, and that we shouldn’t put as much stock into past results. By taking that to the extreme, you could maybe say it’ll go the distance.
Regardless of where you stand on this prop, we would only advise placing a small wager on “Yes” at +750. This prop being a long shot is warranted, and there’s little reason to burn your money on a bet like this.
Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano Fight Prediction
Given her status as one of the greatest fighters in UFC history, I’m inclined to give the nod to Rousey. A Carano victory would be a massive upset (and would also be pretty exciting), but oddsmakers are unanimous in their belief that it’s an especially unlikely scenario.
Rousey is tenacious, and while it’s been ages since she’s fought professionally, I expect her to tap into some of the raw power and technique that made her so fearsome in the past.
I might think differently about this fight if Carano had a shorter layoff than Rousey, and there’s a chance that it could be ugly and last a little while. However, my brain says to expect Rousey to win by another quick submission.
Verdict: Rousey via Submission, Round 1
Where to Bet Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano
Compared to regulated sportsbooks, offshore betting sites offer deeper betting markets, superior promotions, and more user flexibility. Different payment options mean you don’t have to link your bank or use a credit card, and unregulated markets come with a wider range of props.
Of course, we also want you to be safe when you’re setting out to bet on Rousey vs. Carano or any other MMA event. That’s why we’ve personally reviewed some of the best offshore sportsbooks available. If it gets our stamp of approval, you can trust that we’ve deposited our own money and conducted hands-on tests of all the features offered by the betting site.
The best choices include BetOnline, Bovada, and Everygame, as mentioned above. The list doesn’t stop there, though. Heritage Sports, BetAnything, and BookMaker also rank among the very best books in the industry.
Responsible Gaming
Sports betting should add to the thrill of game day, never take away from it. Practice responsible gaming by setting a budget you can actually afford to lose, sticking to it, and treating each wager as entertainment instead of a payday. Chasing losses or borrowing cash to bet are red flags worth taking seriously. If gambling starts feeling more like a problem than a pastime, call the National Council on Problem Gambling at 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help anytime.
Final Thoughts
Regardless of whether this fight leads to something more for Rousey or Carano, it’s an event worth watching. The card is stacked with talent, including Nate Diaz and Mike Perry, and Netflix has proven to be a legitimate platform for fights.
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool
