SELECT SCORE:
Though betting on football favorites remains the most popular bet for the majority of bettors, sharper bettors are always on the hunt to find underdogs. Why? The simplest explanation is underdogs provide two chances to win against a point spread compared to favorites.
An underdog selection can win against the spread or outright. How does one identify these dogs that have the potential to win or at the very least beat the oddsmaker’s number in college and pro football? Let’s break it all down.
Start With the Right Research
Underdogs come in all shapes and sizes. Understanding their most current form is important. Here are traits of those catching points on a football weekend.
- Underdog in good form vs. favorite a little off
- Advantageous head-to-head record
- Injuries that could impact favorite
If two teams have played comparable schedules but the pooch on the receiving end of points has been more consistent than the favored club, this could be a winning opportunity. Maybe the fave’s quarterback is having accuracy issues, while the ball-chucker you are considering is throwing darts to his receivers, that could be a QB edge that engineers an upset.
In all sports, sometimes one team has another’s number. Maybe the lesser squad always “get up” for a game against a chief rival or for whatever reason they just match up well versus this opponent despite not performing as effectively against others both clubs face. Catching points with a squad that always believes it has a chance can matter.
Injuries to key players or even a particular position can swing an outcome in an underdog’s favor. An example, the dog has a good passing offense and faces a favorite that suffered injuries to its secondary, leaving them vulnerable. The favored crew has to blitz more in obvious passing situations, which could leave them to permit big plays if blocked up properly.
Finding Meaningful Traits
Whether it is the NFL or college football, underdogs having unique skills can turn into a difference-maker.
A Powerful Running Game vs. a Weaker Run Defense
The running game can wear down a favored opponent, which can be a great tool for covering point spreads. This run offense has to feature a strong offensive line and have running backs that hit the point of attack with abandon. While the opposing defense is good, their main weakness is stopping the straight-ahead run offense.
If your underdog pick can establish the line of scrimmage and pound away, that can take away a foe’s willingness to be blocked play after play. Also, having a running quarterback is a great way to frustrate the favored opposition. Possessing even a modest passing offense helps prevent the foe from loading the box to stop the rush.
Potent Passing Offense That Scores Points Can Matter
In today’s football, the passing offense can be the great equalizer when facing a more talented squad. Finding a quarterback with a strong arm and variety of pass-catchers with different skills can rattle a better team.
If this dog not only moves the ball by passing but scores enough touchdowns and points to make their opponent feel nervous having to match digits when facing a supposedly inferior foe, that can be the right side-to-back betting football.
Again, if this is an area where the favorite is less accomplished, this can turn into a winning wager. You have to understand matchups.
Lock Down Defense Can Keep a Dog in the Hunt
In the NFL, if the underdog is Top 7 in scoring defense and total defense, they will give their club a shot at an upset. The spreads in such games are normally within four points of the opposing club and if this dog can generate turnovers, all the better.
In the collegiate game, when the stop troops concede below 20 points and/or 315 or fewer yards, this underdog is capable of having their club hang around and maybe win late. More often than not this type of defense will be a single-digit dog unless they are taking on one of the elite in the sport. With this defense positioned to receive points against the key numbers of 3, 6, and 7, that might be enough with the help from at least an average offense.
Motivation and Home Underdogs
Motivation can be a powerful tool. If the pooch was embarrassed the previous year, that might be enough for this unit to play hard for all 60 minutes and beat a number.
Sometimes home underdogs receive a little too much credit, as it varies greatly from year to year. But it never hurts to complete the research and determine if the home club catching points can put together a complete effort before its crowd. As stated, you want a home team in the right situations to pull an upset and this should be backed by thorough research that proves they can engineer such a feat.
