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2023 NFL Draft: Team to Draft Player Best Value Bets

Anthony Richardson Florida NFL Combine Lucas Oil Stadium
Quarterback Anthony Richardson of Florida participates in a drill during the NFL Combine on March 04 2023 Stacy RevereGetty ImagesAFP

Few drafts have been as hard to predict as the 2023 NFL Draft, which begins Thursday night. Most expect the Carolina Panthers to take Alabama quarterback Bryce Young with the No. 1 pick they traded up from No. 9 with Chicago to get.

But after that, anything can happen this week. We are looking at the OddsTrader data for sportsbooks offering the best value bets for matching a player with the team that drafts him this week.

Anthony Richardson (Florida QB)

Favorites to Take Richardson

  • Titans (+200)
  • Colts (+300)
  • Raiders (+380)
  • Seahawks (+380)
  • Texans (+1600)

Well, it feels like a done deal that Anthony Richardson will end up in the AFC South. It is just that the only thing we know for sure is he will not end up in Jacksonville.

But so much of this pick makes sense for the Colts and their new coach, Shane Steichen, who just ran an offense with Jalen Hurts to the Super Bowl. Richardson is the kind of inexperienced prospect who Steichen can mold into a capable starter. He is also the kind of athlete the team could use after rolling out swansong Philip Rivers, damaged Carson Wentz, and ancient Matt Ryan the last three seasons.

Unfortunately, logic and the NFL Draft do not often work together, so Richardson going No. 4 to the Colts may in fact be a pipe dream. He can in fact fall to No. 11 to the Titans, who are familiar with trying to develop college passers like Steve McNair and Vince Young. They also may be souring on Ryan Tannehill’s long injury history, poor playoff resume, and diminishing returns.

The Titans feel more realistic in taking a chance at No. 11, but the Colts are still the fun, logical pick with solid +300 odds. If you believe no one believes anything in the media this draft season, then stick with your gut here and take the Colts to take Richardson.

NFL Pick: Team to Draft Anthony Richardson – Colts (+300) at BetMGM


Bijan Robinson (Texas RB)

Favorites to Take Robinson

  • Falcons (+250)
  • Texans (+650)
  • Eagles (+750)
  • Commanders (+850)
  • Cowboys (+1200)

These odds feel very odd. The Falcons would be getting silly value if they used the No. 8 pick to draft a running back after Tyler Allgeier averaged 4.9 yards per carry and rushed for 1,035 yards as a rookie. Similar things can be said for the Texans with Dameon Pierce in town.

But the Eagles and Cowboys make sense as both let their starting running back go (Miles Sanders and Ezekiel Elliott). But the Cowboys are still talking about bringing Zeke back, and they have an excellent player in Tony Pollard.

This pick really should go to Philadelphia, which is about the only team that can justify the luxury pick of a first-round running back. The roster is already so good, the quarterback position is set with Hurts, they can bypass these wide receivers at the No. 10 pick, and they already have good pieces on defense.

Maybe the offensive line deserves more attention in Philadelphia, but a great runner with receiving ability like Robinson, the best back in this class by far, is a smart move for one of the only offenses in the NFL that still loves to run the ball.

With the Eagles having two first-round picks, let’s see this one happen just because it would be fun and logical – a rare combination in the NFL draft. Hard to beat +750 odds for something like that too.

NFL Pick: Team to Draft Bijan Robinson – Eagles (+750) at BetMGM


Hendon Hooker (Tennessee QB)

Favorites to Take Hooker

  • Vikings (+500)
  • Titans (+600)
  • Raiders (+600)
  • Seahawks (+850)
  • Lions (+1000)
  • Texans (+1100)

Hendon Hooker has been favored to go to Minnesota ever since NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah mocked him to the Vikings weeks ago. Hooker was not even in the top six odds before that. Jeremiah is connected, but we have seen TV analysts up to the king himself, Mel Kiper Jr., get fed bad information that comes nowhere close to reality on draft night.

Sure, the Vikings may have a need and some time with Kirk Cousins playing out his contract. But it still does not seem likely that a team will want to use a first-round pick on Hooker after he tore his ACL and will not be anywhere near close to being ready to play this year. He also played in a gimmicky offense that barely asked him to drop back like a traditional pro quarterback.

Some of the other choices here also feel like longshots with the Seahawks paying Geno Smith and Pete Carroll’s age making Seattle a bad fit for a quarterback project. The Raiders also need to win now so that Josh McDaniels can keep his job beyond this year. The Texans should have multiple shots at better quarterback prospects, and the Titans may be the reach of all reaches if they use the No. 11 pick on Hooker.

However, the team that makes a lot of sense here is Detroit with the No. 6, 18, and 48 picks in this draft, so they can move around with a lot of draft capital if they please. They also have a potential stop-gap quarterback in Jared Goff, who may or may not be the long-term answer for the Lions, who are favored in the NFC North this year. Hooker could sit a year or two to learn behind Goff before taking over.

NFL Pick: Team to Draft Hendon Hooker – Lions (+1000) at BetMGM


Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Ohio State WR)

Favorites to Take Smith

  • Packers (+340)
  • Texans (+380)
  • Patriots (+750)
  • Titans (+1600)
  • Jets (+1700)

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is still favored by most to go first among the wide receivers in this class. He can be a No. 1 wide receiver for someone, though he may not have to do that in 2023.

Still, this is a very interesting top five for him, because it includes the Packers and Jets, fresh off their trade swap for Aaron Rodgers on Monday. The Packers get first crack now at No. 13 while the Jets are down to No. 15.

Frankly, the Packers need Smith-Njigba more since the Jets nailed it last year with Garrett Wilson, the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year. They also got Allen Lazard in New York for Rodgers, which is why Green Bay could use another player to go with Christian Watson. It just would be amusing to see them draft a first-round wide receiver or tight end for the first time since 2002 after acquiring a pick in a trade involving Rodgers.

As for the Texans, they need an elite defender or a quarterback with their picks more than they need this wide receiver. The Titans could try to make up for their mistake of trading A.J. Brown last draft night, but the pick to like here is New England.

The Patriots have done a terrible job of drafting wideouts under Bill Belichick, but he has to know the offense does not have enough talent around Mac Jones to get the job done. Getting the best overall wideout in this class would be a nice move at No. 14.

NFL Pick: Team to Draft Jaxon Smith-Njigba – Patriots (+750) at BetMGM


Will Levis (Kentucky QB)

Favorites to Take Levis

  • Colts (-110)
  • Texans (+210)
  • Raiders (+800)
  • Patriots (+1100)
  • Titans (+1200)

Will Levis may be the most polarizing figure in this draft right now. He went from being the (distant) No. 3 quarterback to maybe being the No. 4 after Anthony Richardson’s boost. But with days to go before the draft, some are sending Levis to the Texans at No. 2, and the Colts have emerged as the odds-on favorite with the No. 4 pick to land Levis.

What gives? If Levis goes ahead of C.J. Stroud and Richardson, this feels like the closest thing to 2017 when Mitch Trubisky went No. 2 with Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson still on the board. Granted, these quarterbacks seem unlikely to match what Mahomes and Watson have become in the NFL, but Levis at No. 2 would be a wild pick, yet we see Houston right behind Indy here.

Imagine a draft that goes Young at No. 1, Levis at No. 2, the Cardinals take a defender, and then the Colts could suddenly pick Stroud or Richardson. Again, the intrigue and possibilities after the No. 1 pick are just endless this year with this crazy draft.

We started this off by saying the Colts should take Richardson, and we are still ending it with the Colts taking Levis. Think of it as a hedge, and that we do not believe the Texans are serious about Levis at No. 2. That would be insane, right?

The Raiders could be a fun dark horse here, especially if McDaniels gets the inkling that Belichick would make a trade to land Levis. But we are going to stick with the chalk pick for the first time and go with the Colts to land Levis as the safest pick.

NFL Pick: Team to Draft Will Levis – Colts (-110) at BetMGM

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