I’ve added three player props for tonight’s late portion of the MLB slate. There are some awesome matchups that I’m exploiting. Let’s have a great night!

Picks Summary

• Tommy Pham Over 1.5 Total Bases (+150) at Bet365
• Jack Suwinski Over .5 Total Bases(-135) at Bet365
• Tony Gonsolin Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-125) at BetMGM

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New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres

Friday, July 7, 2023 – 09:40 PM EDT at Petco Park

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Yu Darvish typically has the Mets’ number, but he’s struggled against righties over the last month. That gives the Mets some hope for tonight. Darvish has allowed his last 32 righties to hit a .241 ISO and wOBA of .402. He’s also earned only 15.6% of strikeouts against righties in that time.

Beyond that, Darvish has allowed 41.7% of hard contact to righties and has given up 33.3% of line drives. He’s also not earning a high amount of swinging strikes.

He’ll take on Tommy Pham, who has lit up righties over the last 30 days. Pham is a righty crushing righties, earning a .195 ISO and wOBA of .394 over his previous 84 plate appearances against righties. Pham has slugged 58.6% of hard contact and has hit over 22% of line drives against righties.

Darvish isn’t getting many chases and continues to get beat by righties over the last month. So let’s take a chance on Pham to get at least two total bases at +150 betting odds.

MLB Pick: Tommy Pham Over 1.5 Total Bases (+150) at Bet365

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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Friday, July 7, 2023 – 09:40 PM EDT at Chase Field

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Some believe Zac Gallen has the Cy Young award locked up in the National League. I don’t.

Gallen has allowed his last 57 lefties to hit a .236 ISO and wOBA of .350 over the last month. He’s not getting high-ground balls and has allowed 36.6% of fly balls with 43.9% of hard contact to his previous 57 lefties. Beyond that, Gallen has allowed a 12.2% barrel percentage, and his strikeout numbers are trending down compared to the beginning of the season.

He’ll face a lefty in Jack Suwinski for the Pirates lineup. Suwinski is on fire, hitting a .423 ISO and wOBA of .441 against his last 69 righties. He’s also hit just 18.4% of ground balls and has smacked 47.4% of line drives and fly balls over the last month. Plus, he’s smacked 78.9% of hard contact against righties in that same 30 days with a barrel percentage of 26.3%. His production against righties hasn’t been discussed as much as it should be.

Suwinski is tearing up righties and has another terrific matchup against Gallen coming. Grab Suwinski to earn at least one hit.

MLB Pick: Jack Suwinski Over 0.5 Total Bases (-135) at Bet365

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Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Friday, July 7, 2023 – 10:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium

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Tony Gonsolin isn’t always known for high strikeouts, but he’s got some advantages tonight that I think he’ll exploit.

Gonsolin will take the hill for the Dodgers and face the Los Angeles Angels. The Angels have struck out 24.6% of the time against righties in the last month with their projected lineup. They’ve got five batters striking out at least 23.1% of the time against righties in the previous month.

Meanwhile, Gonsolin has held teams to a .143 ISO and wOBA of .318. He’s also earned over 44% of grounders and has allowed under 20% of fly balls. That should help him get through this Angels lineup that’s typically boom or bust. Gonsolin has struck out 25.6% of lefties in the last month.

The Angels should have seven lefties in the lineup to face Gonsolin. That’s good news for Gonsolin, especially with those lefties striking out 26% of the time against righties in the last 30 days.

The Angels have also earned just 8.7% of walks. Half of their batters aren’t very good at working counts. That should also help Gonsolin get deeper. His pitch count will be low with some balls in play and easy three-pitch strikeouts. Let’s back Gonsolin to earn at least six strikeouts tonight. One per inning sounds very reasonable.

MLB Pick: Tony Gonsolin Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-125) at BetMGM

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