Top Sportsbooks have released their NCAAB odds for tonight’s action. One game, in particular, interests me as worth investing in: Oklahoma State vs. West Virginia.
Picks Summary
- John-Michael Wright under 1.5 assists (+105) at Bet365
- Erik Stevenson under 14.5 points (-115) at Bet365
- Erik Stevenson under 2.5 threes made (-185) at Bet365
Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. West Virginia Mountaineers
Monday, February 20, 2023 – 07:00 PM EST at WVU Coliseum
West Virginia’s Pressure Defense
Much of the reasoning for my player prop recommendations for this game comes from West Virginia’s defensive style. Historically under Bob Huggins, the Mountaineers are known for their defensive pressure. They especially like to ratchet up this pressure in their home games, where they feed off the crowd’s energy.
It is tempting to think that the Mountaineer defense lacks the same level of intensity as previous seasons because it does not have a high steal rate. But the Mountaineers rank second in the Big 12 at forcing turnovers that are not steals.
They still apply ball pressure—they will indeed do so all the way down the court, where they will have at least one defender breathing down the opposing ball-handler’s back. I say “at least” because the Mountaineers like to apply pressure also by ganging up on opposing ball-handlers.
This will be evident, especially on ball screens, where opposing ball-handlers will be suffocated by West Virginia’s pressure, which will prevent him from comfortably being able to dribble, find the roll man, or pass to someone else.
John-Michael Wright (Oklahoma State)
With West Virginia’s defense in mind, one player whom I am interested in targeting is Cowboys guard John-Michael Wright. Wright has bounced around between the point and shooting guard positions, evincing his lack of comfort being his team’s facilitator, which is a role that his current team—he is a transfer from High Point—only during the season had him occupy.
Given his relative lack of success as a ball-handler—indeed, his turnover rate is higher than his assist rate—he is particularly susceptible to pressure from opposing defenses. Thus, he will be particularly vulnerable to West Virginia’s defense given its inclination to apply to strong pressure on ball-handlers.
Because assists require passing and passing is made more difficult by ball pressure, we must expect a low assist total from Wright tonight.
NCAAB Pick: John-Michael Wright under 1.5 assists (+105) at Bet365
Erik Stevenson (West Virginia)
Mountaineer guard/forward Erik Stevenson often epitomizes hero ball, or the ball-hog, the guy who dribbles furiously while refusing to pass and who tries his best to create his own individual scoring opportunity. While Stevenson’s comfort with ball-handling qualifies him as a multi-level scorer, his best games have typically been those in which he was on-point from behind the arc.
The problem with his reliance on shooting threes is that he is a streaky shooter. For example, he converted seven of his 10 three-point attempts against Auburn before converting one of six of them against Oklahoma State. More recently, he shot 7 of 12 from deep against Oklahoma before making only one three-pointer against Iowa State.
Given this tendency, one must like him to shoot poorly tonight and therefore to score few points. Of course, Oklahoma State’s highly-ranked defense will play a role in Stevenson’s poor shooting tonight. OK State has the top-level rim protection in the form of Moussa Cisse to encourage its perimeter defenders to guard the three-point line aggressively—because Cisse will be positioned inside in case opposing ball-handlers blow by their defender as a result of the latter’s refusal to sag.
NCAAB Pick: Erik Stevenson under 14.5 points (-115) at Bet365
Stevenson’s Threes Prop PickÂ
The following prop on Stevenson’s productivity (or rather lack thereof) follows from the first. Since the start of Big 12 play, Stevenson has yet to make more than a single three-pointer in a game following one in which he made multiple threes.
Of course, his Big 12 competition is also better than his non-conference competition, which helps explain why he is making less than 30% of his three-point attempts. His problems shooting against stronger competition give us all the more reason to expect him to make fewer threes tonight.
NCAAB Pick: Erik Stevenson under 2.5 threes made (-185) at Bet365
To Recap
In case it isn’t obvious, I like the OK State-West Virginia game to be low-scoring as two good defenses will prevent offenses that lack reliable ball-handlers from gaining rhythm in the half-court. For the above reasons, I am all over the “under” on the player prop options for this game.
