How to Attack NFL Specialized Season Props

Josh Allen Buffalo Bills New York Jets
Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills throws a pass against the New York Jets. Elsa/Getty Images/AFP.

The popularity of NFL props has taken on a life of its own. Once the domain of the Super Bowl with its sheer volume, now the number of football props is left to people’s imagination of those creating them at the best sportsbooks.

The days of a few simple prop bets on some of the games have gone the way of “Tiger King”, never to be seen again. With so many choices, it can be overwhelming looking at all those props that are season-long or weekly.

We are going to hone in on NFL season props and discuss methods to enhance profitability.


Using NFL Team Prop Bets to Your Advantage

Every semi-serious football bettor is aware of certain types of futures bets to win the Super Bowl, conference, division, and season win totals. By August 1, those have been in the marketplace long enough and the numbers have been adjusted so that at least a portion of potential value is removed.

Instead, you have to dig deeper into the abyss to find more that offers value. Not every sportsbook will offer each of these, but if you have even a couple of betting accounts, you open up your window of opportunity. Here is what we mean.

Seek to find these wagers:

  • Team Odds to Make the Playoffs
  • Alternate Win Totals
  • Exact Finish in a Division
  • Worst to First in a Division
  • First Time Super Bowl Winner
  • Combined Wins of Two Bad Teams (Over/Under)

Why You Should Look for These Props

The beauty of looking for and finding these NFL prop bets is they all align directly with your normal preseason handicapping. You don’t have to do any unique or unusual research, they all fit within the realm of what you normally do annually.

That’s why it is smart to seek these props out early enough, sometimes from mid-July until the first part of August. Writing these down or saving them somewhere on your computer/mobile device can keep these potential wagers as top-of-the-mind since you will be doing research over a variety of different times before the season commences.

You are bound to find any number of appealing wagers. It is best to be highly selective and stick with those that fit what you are seeking answers for as part of your research.

Never Go in This Direction for Prop Bets

When looking at team or player props that are more specialized, sportsbooks will try and entice you with betting odds that signal, at least by the numbers, they are all but certain to win.

If there are no – free lunches – rest assured there are no guaranteed winners!

While each person will think differently about what their threshold on losing a bet is, once a prop bet is any more than -350 to -400, you should definitely pass. The key is not how much you win, but rather, what it costs you to be wrong.


Using NFL Player Prop Bets to Your Advantage

What is different about player props compared to team props is the potential injury factor. Always know a player’s history. 

The best way to use these is to find players you follow or care about. This way you have an interest because they are on a team or division you follow or among your favorite players.

Once this is established, look for the components that fit. Take quarterback Josh Allen as an example.

  • Josh Allen Passing Yards – Over/Under
  • Josh Allen Rushing Yards – Over/Under
  • Josh Allen Passing Touchdowns – Over/Under
  • Josh Allen Rushing Touchdowns – Over/Under
  • Josh Allen Total Touchdowns – Over/Under

What to Take Into Consideration

What to take into consideration is his numbers from the last three seasons to set a benchmark. This gives you a clear indication of his history.

Next, what is the status of the team? Are they on the rise, leveled off, or in decline? Does Allen have as many weapons around him to think Over bets or has something changed? Also, this is not just about Allen, but a quarterback who is a great runner like Allen will have more rushing yards when 27 you younger, than when he reaches his 30s.

This is making astute observations through knowledge instead of just following the numbers.


Final Thoughts

In conclusion, there is money to be made on NFL props and the smart bettor understands their limitations and places themselves in the best position to win. 

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