MLB Pick: Cubs +1.5 (-145) at Caesars Sportsbook
Picks Summary
- Athletics vs. Pirates: Pirates -1.5 (+110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Cardinals vs. Rangers: Over 9.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Cubs vs. Padres: Cubs +1.5 (-145) at Caesars Sportsbook
It’s a small slate of games. There’s not much to choose from. That’s why we’ve got our AI Model to help us find some value tonight. I like the direction that this model went with tonight’s games. Let’s make some money!
Oakland Athletics vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Monday, June 05, 2023 – 07:05 PM EDT at PNC Park
The AI Model predicts that the Pirates will win their game, 6.7-3.3, tonight. The Pirates are currently 31-27, while the Athletics are just 12-49 on the season.
The Athletics will pitch JP Sears tonight. He’s a lefty with a 5.63 xFIP in the last 30 days. Sears has struck out 18% of batters and has induced 27.1% of ground balls over the last month. He’s done some good things, but that only means regression for Sears. Sears has a BABIP of .215 and has walked 2.7% of batters. Both of those numbers are going to be harder to sustain.
Oakland’s Offense Can’t Hang
Meanwhile, the Athletics are hitting a .128 ISO and wOBA of .273 against righties over the last month, using their projected lineup.
They’ll face Johan Oviedo, who has also had his struggles this season. But he’s at least limited his wOBA to .296 against righties and has an ISO of .145 to his last 76 lefties. He’s done some good things that should roll into tonight’s game.
MLB Pick: Pirates -1.5 (+110) at Caesars Sportsbook
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Texas Rangers
Monday, June 05, 2023 – 08:05 PM EDT at Globe Life Field
Our AI Model predicts 10.4 runs between the Cardinals and Rangers in tonight’s game. That’s the highest projected total for games starting in the nighttime.
Martin Perez will take the hill for the Rangers. He’s holding a 6.10 xFIP over the last month and has struck out under 15% of batters. Perez has also allowed a .330 BABIP and is giving up a .377 wOBA and ISO of .245 to his last 111 righties faced.
The Cardinals will have a lineup with only righties. They hit a .247 ISO and wOBA of .326 against lefties in the last 30 days.
Meanwhile, Adam Wainwright will get the call for the Cardinals. He’s also struggling and holding a 6.02 xFIP with just 12.8% of strikeouts. Lefties are hitting a .453 wOBA and ISO of .286 against Wainwright. Texas should have at least six lefties in their lineup. This projected group is hitting 27.2% of line drives against righties too.
The Over makes sense for your MLB picks.
MLB Pick: Over 9.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres
Monday, June 05, 2023 – 09:10 PM EDT at PETCO Park
Our AI Model has the Cubs losing by just .5 runs against the Padres in tonight’s late-night showdown. The Chicago Cubs will send out Kyle Hendricks, who is still trying to recover from an injury. He’s done some good and bad things, but the veteran typically performs like this.
Hendricks has low strikeouts and high walks. He’s also holding a BABIP of .400, which will drop as he pitches more. No batter has had an extra-base hit against Hendricks so far this season. He has to limit walks and keep line drives down while earning more ground balls. That should work out against the Padres, who have hit only 18.4% of line drives against righties with their projected lineup in the last month.
Meanwhile, Blake Snell will get the call for the Padres. He’s a lefty with a 5.12 xFIP over the last month. Snell will get strikeouts but will also give up many line drives and cannot earn ground balls at a high rate.
The Cubs are hitting a .228 ISO and wOBA of .373 against lefties over the last month. They’ve also hit over 29% of line drives and just 27.6% of ground balls against lefties using their projected lineup over the last month. The Cubs’ offense checks out way better against the opposition. Yet, the Cubs are underdogs in tonight’s game?
Cubs’ Dominance
The AI Model is on to something. In the last month, Chicago only has two batters hitting an ISO lower than .176 against lefties. The projected lineup has also worked nearly 11% of walks, and that rate might even grow against Snell, who continues to walk many batters.
The Cubs at +1.5 looks valuable tonight at the MLB odds.
MLB Pick: Cubs +1.5 (-145) at Caesars Sportsbook
