Today’s Top MLB Pick: Rangers ML (-130) at BetMGM
Baseball is here, and that can only mean one thing: tight lines. This was the first major North American sport that the computers figured out, thanks to baseball’s mechanical, repetitive and easily measurable set of actions. Early adopters of Moneyball made tons of money 20 years ago with their baseball picks; now the MLB odds are the tightest of the bunch, even tighter than the NFL.
We can still use computers to find an edge, though. The machines at OddsTrader have cranked out their MLB computer picks for all 15 games on Thursday’s Opening Day slate; these projections should naturally be more reliable than they are for football and basketball, and there are three games in particular that stand out for their potential profit margin.
Picks Summary
- Phillies vs. Rangers: Rangers ML (-130)
- Guardians vs. Mariners: Mariners ML (-115)
- Pirates vs. Reds: Reds ML (-132)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Texas Rangers
Thursday, March 30, 2023 – 04:05 PM EDT at Globe Life Field
It’s time to start fading the Philadelphia Phillies. They were very fortunate to win the National League pennant last year after going 87-75 (minus-3.05 betting units) during the 2022 regular season. Now they’re +110 road dogs against the Rangers (68-94, minus-16.00 units) in a game that the computers have Texas winning 4.2 runs to 2.7.
So how can we tell the Rangers are the right baseball pick at -130? And how much should we bet? Plug those projected scores into a Pythagorean expectation calculator, and you get Texas winning Thursday’s opener 70.8% of the time, which works out to an equivalent fair moneyline of -242.
Chances are this projected gap of 1.5 runs between the two teams is a bit large. But even if you look at some of the more conservative projections out there on the Web, the Rangers appear to be in good enough shape to win by at least a half-run.
In a low-scoring game like this one promises to be, a half-run is enough of an edge to make Texas worth investing one unit of your bankroll in. Size your bets larger accordingly if you believe the OddsTrader computers are more prescient here.
Either way, fade those dirty Phillies. Their luck may have already run out; not only is OF Bryce Harper (elbow) starting the season on the injured list while he recovers from Tommy John surgery, 1B Rhys Hoskins will now miss the entire 2023 campaign after blowing out his left ACL last week. Woof.
MLB Pick: Rangers ML (-130) at BetMGM
Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle Mariners
Thursday, March 30, 2023 – 10:10 PM EDT at T-Mobile Park
The Mariners (90-72, plus-10.67 units) made the playoffs for the first time since 2001, but unlike the Phillies, they couldn’t parlay their Wild Card into a deep run. Combine that with Seattle’s natural betting value as a regional market tucked away in the Pacific Northwest, plus their offseason upgrades, and you’ve got a compelling “follow” team for 2023.
The computers agree. They have Seattle edging the Guardians (92-70, plus-18.05 units) 3.2 runs to three this Thursday, which isn’t much. Is it enough to make the Mariners the right baseball pick at -115?
Almost. Put those run projections in the Pythagorean calculator, and you have Seattle’s chances of winning at 53.2%, just below the 53.5%, you need to break even at -115 on the moneyline. This time, though, the OddsTrader computers might be a bit pessimistic about Seattle.
The M’s are also looking at about a half-run edge according to the wider range of projections out there. They should be worth at least a slight lean at -115, but be willing to bet that single unit if you think it’s prudent.
MLB Pick: Mariners ML (-115) at BetMGM
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds
Thursday, March 30, 2023 – 04:10 PM EDT at Great American Ball Park
What happens when you put two awful teams on the diamond? One of them still has to win, and in this case, the computers say it’ll be the Reds (62-100, minus-16.63 units) beating the Pirates (62-100, minus-11.65 units) by five runs to 3.4. That’s a butt-kicking in modern times.
Cincinnati’s chances of winning work out to 68.4% using the Pythagorean calculator, and that’s the same as a fair moneyline of -216, so of course we’re going to recommend the Reds at -132.
For safety’s sake, we did check those other projections first, and once again, Cincinnati’s edge
MLB Pick: Reds ML (-132) at FanDuel
