The 2023 NFL Draft begins next Thursday, April 27. Few drafts have ever had this much intrigue and differing opinions on the top prospects like this class.
We have already seen a trade pulled off for the No. 1 pick. Could someone else move up to No. 2 or No. 3? How far will Jalen Carter, once the favorite for the first defender off the board, fall after some off-field concerns? Is any superstar getting traded on draft night?
With many of the top-rated sportsbooks offering betting markets on these draft picks, we look at the five trends, stats, and storylines to keep in mind going into this hard-to-predict draft.
1. The Night of Quarterbacks
Unlike last year, quarterbacks will be at the forefront of this draft class. Many expect Bryce Young to go No. 1 to Carolina, but we could also see C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, and Will Levis go in the top 10, if not higher too.
This is closer to the new norm in the NFL than last year when Kenny Pickett was the only quarterback drafted in the top 70 picks. Some even think Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker has a shot to make it five quarterbacks drafted in the first round, but some of the quarterback-needy teams may end up waiting until later for him.
But with four signal callers expected to go so high, this will lead to a lot of debates on the internet for years to come about which teams got it right. Who messes up so badly like in 2017 when the Bears chose Mitchell Trubisky while Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes were still on the board?
On the other hand, someone like Levis could be the Josh Allen of this class, a quarterback who was chosen after Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold in 2018 before quickly proving he was the better choice.
Historic Evening
The Panthers, Texans, and Colts are the most quarterback-needy teams at the top of the draft but do not be surprised if teams like Tampa Bay, Detroit, Las Vegas, and Washington show interest as well in the first round.
The lack of a slam-dunk prospect like Andrew Luck or Trevor Lawrence in this draft adds to the intrigue of the scouting departments having to figure out how legitimate these players are.
But either way, it should be a historic night as Young, Stroud, and Richardson will make 2023 only the second draft ever with three Black quarterbacks drafted in the first round. The last and only time was in 1999 with Donovan McNabb, Akili Smith, and Daunte Culpepper. This 2023 class would be the first draft ever to start with two Black quarterbacks should two get selected with those top two picks.
2. Does Houston Pass on a Passer, Making Arizona Trade the No. 3 Pick?
With the betting odds up to -2000 at some sportsbooks for Young going No. 1 to Carolina, the real intrigue in this draft may not come until the Texans are on the clock for the No. 2 pick. Long considered a quarterback pick, there are growing expectations that the Texans will skip a passer at No. 2 and take the best defender in Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson.
The dilemma here is that Arizona, holders of the No. 3 pick, have long been rumored to eventually trade this pick to a quarterback-needy team. Should the Texans not take a quarterback, then someone may want to jump ahead of the Colts at No. 4 to make sure they get their quarterback, whether it is Stroud, Richardson, or Levis.
Of course, Arizona is also a very logical fit for Anderson at the defensive end, so it could be a real battle between Houston and Arizona for the services of the best defender. If the Cardinals are out of the Anderson sweepstakes and not taking a quarterback to replace Kyler Murray, then they absolutely better field all the offers they can in those 10 minutes.
3. Will Aaron Rodgers Get Traded on Thursday Night?
Speaking of trades, some big names could be moved on draft night. We saw it last year with a record nine trades involving first-round picks, including moves that sent wide receiver A.J. Brown to Philadelphia and wide receiver Marquise Brown to Arizona.
Could the long-awaited Aaron Rodgers to the Jets trade finally go down on draft night? With the Jets holding the No. 13 pick and the Packers holding the No. 15 pick, those picks could be switched if that is going to be part of the compensation for Green Bay sending Rodgers to the Jets.
The Packers and Jets could both be looking at a tight end with those picks. They could also go an entirely different way, so it would be very good for the Jets especially to know if Rodgers is in the fold or not for 2023. The Packers seemed prepared to move on with Jordan Love either way.
Of course, it would be humorous if the Packers ended up drafting a skilled player with their first-round pick after trading Rodgers. For all of his 18 seasons in Green Bay, Rodgers never saw the team draft a first-round wide receiver or tight end. The last such choice by the Packers was Javon Walker in 2002.
4. Does Philadelphia Land RB Bijan Robinson?
One of the few players to have a consensus about his prospects is Texas running back Bijan Robinson, widely considered the best at his position in this draft.
The team most commonly associated with Robinson is Philadelphia, which would make sense for many reasons.
- The Eagles are a run-dominant offense that will be looking for a workhorse after losing Miles Sanders in the offseason.
- Robinson is a very talented player with good hands and a feel for the receiving game, another dimension that Sanders lacked.
- The Eagles have great draft capital and flexibility with picks No. 10 and No. 30 in their possession.
- Philadelphia has a very talented roster with few holes after losing the Super Bowl to Kansas City, so the luxury pick of a running back is plausible here.
Robinson figures to be the only first-round running back in this draft. His over/under for draft position is 16 with the Under 16 (-175) having favored odds right now. That could mean the Eagles at No. 10, or the Eagles could trade down and take him a little later than that.
But it would be one of the best fits for a team and player in the first round if Robinson went to the Eagles.
5. Will Tight Ends Outdo the Wide Receivers in First Round and in 2023?
In this draft, the odds are heavily in favor of over two tight ends being drafted in the first round (-500) while it is closer to even for Over 3.5 wide receivers (-120).
There will likely be more wide receivers drafted in the first round than tight ends, but which players will have the biggest impact?
The wide receiver class has a lot of fans and critics alike with the top prospects still being Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Zay Flowers, Jordan Addison, and Quentin Johnston. Flowers has been a late riser in the draft process, but Ohio State’s Smith-Njigba remains the favorite to go off the board first. But he is not likely going to be a top-10, slam-dunk picks like Larry Fitzgerald, Julio Jones, or Ja’Marr Chase.
But there is a lot of hype for the tight ends with some placing a top-50 grade on as many as five tight ends in this draft. Michael Mayer and Dalton Kincaid both stand out as probable first-round picks and if they end up in the right offensive situations, they may even challenge for an Offensive Rookie of the Year award this season. That is an award that has never been won by a tight end, but there is a first for everything.
