Top MLB Prop Picks
- Lance Lynn Under 18.5 Outs Recorded (-170) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Hunter Greene Over 6.5 Strikeouts (128) at BetMGM
- Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120) at Bet365
- Clayton Kershaw Under 1.5 Walks (-139) at Caesars Sportsbook
It’s a full slate around Major League Baseball on Friday with clearly the marquee matchup featuring the first meeting of the season between the bitter rival Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres.
We have two player prop picks from that game and two from another Friday game, via the MLB odds from the top-rated books.
Chicago White Sox vs. Cincinnati Reds
Friday, May 05, 2023 – 06:40 PM EDT at Great American Ball Park
This interleague series opener is an Apple TV+ national TV matchup between two bad teams. The White Sox have been one of the most disappointing clubs in the AL under first-year manager Pedro Grifol.
Injuries haven’t helped – All-Star shortstop Tim Anderson should start Friday after getting Thursday off; he just returned from a long IL stint early this week – but it primarily has been a terrible rotation.
Lance Lynn’s Prop
Two years ago, right-hander Lance Lynn finished a career-best third in the Cy Young voting in the AL but this year, at age 36 (next week), he looks rather shot at 0-4 with a 7.16 ERA – which followed a lesser regression in 2022.
Chicago is 0-6 in his six starts and he has allowed 37 hits and 15 walks in just 32.2 innings. Lynn also has surrendered at least four runs in four of his past five. There has been some speculation that Lynn is out of shape – White Sox broadcaster Steve Stone recently had to apologize for basically calling Lynn fat – and that he’s having issues adjusting to the pitch clock.
Lynn is 4-0 with a 1.93 ERA (6 ER/28.0 IP) in his last five starts against the Reds, but he hasn’t seen them since 2021, back when he was good. Now he’s in one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in the majors. Only Denver’s Coors Field is more conducive to hitters.
MLB Pick: Lynn Under 18.5 Outs Recorded (-170) at Caesars Sportsbook
Hunter Greene’s Prop
It’s rising young star Hunter Greene (0-1, 2.89 ERA) opposite Lynn. The 23-year-old hasn’t allowed more than three earned this season and just one earned in his past three outings combined.
He has allowed just one home run all season, on Opening Day, and will enter Friday’s start with a streak of 25.0 consecutive homerless innings, the longest of his career.
No White Sox have seen him, which should mean plenty of Greene strikeouts the first time through the lineup at least. Greene has whiffed 40 in his six starts.
MLB Pick: Greene Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-128) at BetMGM
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres
Friday, May 05, 2023 – 09:40 PM EDT at Petco Park
At least for the foreseeable future, Dodgers-Padres has supplanted Yankees-Red Sox or Cardinals-Cubs as the best rivalry in the sport. These teams truly don’t like each other. It will be a raucous sellout all weekend and a true home-field advantage.
The Dodgers dominated the 2022 regular-season series but then were upset in four games in the NLDS by San Diego. While the Dodgers were rather quiet this offseason and lost the likes of All-Stars Trea Turner and Justin Turner, the Padres signed All-Star shortstop Xander Bogaerts… in part to keep him from signing with LA.
Clayton Kershaw’s Prop
Dodgers lefty Clayton Kershaw has won three Cy Young Awards and he might win a fourth if he keeps pitching like he has at 5-1 with a 1.89 ERA, but the 35-year-old is due to get injured because he always spends time on the IL at this point in his career.
He was named the NL Pitcher of the Month for April; the seventh career NL Pitcher of the Month Award for Kershaw and his first since May 2016. Kershaw is the sixth pitcher ever to win at least seven times, joining:
- Roger Clemens (15)
- Greg Maddux (10)
- Randy Johnson (8)
- Pedro Martínez (8)
- Johan Santana (8)
Kershaw had a 0.75 ERA in 12 innings last year in the regular season against San Diego. He has pitched against San Diego 45 times in his career and is 23-9 with a 2.03 ERA in 292 innings.
MLB Pick: Kershaw Under 1.5 Walks (-139) at Caesars Sportsbook
Freddie Freeman’s Prop
It’s just the third start off injury for San Diego’s Joe Musgrove (1-0, 10.80). He’ll round into shape and that ERA is inflated due to allowing seven runs in 3 1/3 innings last Saturday against the Giants in the altitude of Mexico City.
LA’s Freddie Freeman simply murders Musgrove’s career, going 11-for-24 with two doubles, a triple and homer.
MLB Pick: Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120) at Bet365
