When Saint Valentine of Rome was facing execution for continuing to perform marriages, which Emperor Claudius II (aka Claudius the Cruel) had banned in order to keep the army ranks flush, he probably wasn’t thinking about the holy union between artificial intelligence and college basketball.
That’s because Valentine didn’t have the free OddsTrader BetStation app. If he did, he could have given Claudius some hot tips on which teams to bet on and changed the course of history.
Let’s honor his memory with our latest batch of AI-generated college basketball picks, all three taking place on St. Valentine’s Day – and all three on the Over, which the computers seem to love even more than red roses and chocolate.
Picks Summary
- Creighton vs. Providence: Over 140.5 (-110) at SugarHouse
- Michigan vs. Wisconsin: Over 131 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Butler vs. Villanova: Over 128.5 (-106) at FanDuel
Creighton Bluejays vs. Providence Friars
Tuesday, February 14, 2023 – 07:00 PM EST at Amica Mutual Pavilion
There’s only one game on Tuesday’s slate between two ranked teams, and it’s No. 18 Creighton (Under 14-10-1) taking on No. 24 Providence (Under 14-11) in a game you can watch with your significant other on Fox Sports 1.
Aren’t These Two Under Teams?
Yes, but the computers say Providence will win this Big East battle 77-76, which is 12.5 points more than that 140.5-point total on the NCAAB odds as we go to press. It also suggests that overtime could be in the works.
The secret sauce here is the Friars and their not-so-holy defense. Ken Pomeroy has it ranked No. 61 overall according to his advanced efficiency stats, well behind their No. 22-ranked offense. Providence is especially bad at interior defense, ranking No. 348 out of the 363 Division I clubs in 2-point attempts allowed at 41.0 per game.
Creighton (No. 28 offense, No. 12 defense) doesn’t share that imbalance with Providence, and both these teams operate at an average pace of around 67 possessions per game, but the Bluejays are even more generous in the paint at 44.2 2-point shots allowed per game (No. 361). Maybe they should just exchange cards while they’re under the basket.
NCAAB Pick: Over 140.5 (-110) at SugarHouse
Michigan Wolverines vs. Wisconsin Badgers
Tuesday, February 14, 2023 – 09:00 PM EST at Kohl Center
Meanwhile, over in the Big Ten, Michigan (Over 14-11) and Wisconsin (Over 13-11) are cooking up another Over for your NCAAB picks. The computers have each team scoring 70 points in regulation, already blowing out their 131-point total at Caesars Sportsbook before they go into overtime.
Have They Fired Juwan Howard Yet?
Nope. Howard continues to be Michigan’s head coach, although that 62-61 loss to Indiana (Under 145) last Saturday has the Wolverines on the verge of missing the Big Dance.
Don’t let that result scare you from betting the Over this Wednesday. They might be substandard at both ends of the floor, but Michigan is better on offense (No. 46) than defense (No. 68), and they’re not particularly good at stopping 3-pointers (21.3 attempts per game, No. 169).
It’s a bit strange to see Wisconsin with a profitable Over record given their incredibly slow pace of 63.0 possessions per game (No. 346), not to mention the superiority of their defense (No. 30) over their offense (No. 145). But they make up for it by shooting far better from the perimeter than down low, and each of their last two games did indeed go to extra time.
NCAAB Pick: Over 131 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Butler Bulldogs vs. Villanova Wildcats
Tuesday, February 14, 2023 – 08:00 PM EST at Finneran Pavilion
The appetizers and the entree have been served up – now it’s back to the Big East for dessert. Butler (Under 16-8-2) and Villanova (Under 13-12) are looking at a total of 128.5 points at FanDuel, but the computers like the Wildcats to win 73-65.
Did Their Last Game Go Over?
It certainly did: Butler beat Villanova 79-71 back on January 13 to blow out their 134-point total, and that was with the ‘Cats shooting just 32% from long range and 70% from the free-throw line.
That’s not what usually happens with Villanova. They lead Division I at 81.9% from the line this year, although Butler runs a very tight ship, committing only 13.1 fouls per game (No. 361).
As you may know, the ‘Cats are one of the slowest teams in college hoops, getting in just 63.6 possessions per game (No. 338). But they are markedly better on offense (No. 47) than defense (No. 97), so that should help our cause. Bet accordingly – the AI has spoken.
NCAAB Pick: Over 128.5 (-106) at FanDuel
