UFC Pick: Angela Hill ML (+145) at Caesars Sportsbook
Best UFC Picks
- Angela Hill ML (+145)
- Anthony Hernandez ML (-200)
UFC returns to Vegas this Saturday, and we’ll witness a style of clashes in the main event as BJJ expert Mackenzie Dern takes on the muay thai skillset of Angela Hill.
Hot prospects Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez and Edmen Shahbazyan exchange leather in the co-main event, both of whom are vying for middleweight rankings supremacy.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC Vegas 73 main and co-main event.
Mackenzie Dern vs. Angela Hill
UFC Vegas 73 Women’s Strawweight Main Event Bout
Saturday, May 20, 2023 – 08:50 PM EDT at UFC Apex
A legend in her own right, Angela Hill (15-12-0 pro-MMA) doesn’t own the most desirable record. Still, when you factor in her UFC experience and the elite level of competition she’s been faced with for the previous nine years, she must be respected.
Hill’s weekend opposition, Mackenzie Dern (12-3-0), doesn’t boast the same high-level MMA experience. Still, she’s a world-class jiu-jitsu practitioner that’s transitioned to the sport positively and now owns a 7-3 UFC record.
Dern vs. Hill: Fight Tape Analysis
It’s never easy gauging how two opposing styles will play out in the octagon, and most critics expect Dern to dominate Hill in ground positions to have her hands raised. However, as the UFC odds place Hill as the underdog, the over is juiced, thus suggesting they expect this fight to go the distance.
In a five-round bout, I don’t believe Dern can maintain her grappling attacks for 25 minutes, and as displayed by her current record, if the submission finish doesn’t come early, it doesn’t come at all. We’ve seen Dern take 6 of her 7 MMA submission victories within the first round, and with the decision-fighting style of Hill, this could present complications for the BJJ purist.
Hill will own a striking advantage, and although a lack of power is concerning, Dern isn’t the greatest wrestler and won’t find it simple to takedown Hill early in the fight.
UFC Vegas 73 Main Event Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with OddsTraders top sportsbooks believe Dern is an expected winner based on their current price. Still, as previously mentioned, the Over total rounds is juiced versus the Under at 4.5.
I can’t envision a world where Dern maintains a top position for 25 minutes, and once the initial five minutes have surpassed, I expect it to be Angela Hill’s fight to lose. Take the dog money in this 50/50 bout.
UFC Pick: Angela Hill ML (+145) at Caesars Sportsbook
Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Anthony Hernandez
UFC Vegas 73 Middleweight Co-Main Event Bout
Saturday, May 20, 2023 – 08:25 PM EDT at UFC Apex
Ronda Rousey hyped Edmen Shahbazyan (12-3-0) as the next big thing many moons ago, and rightfully so. At the time – 2018 – he was undefeated seven consecutive wins by KO/TKO. The hype continued in the UFC until he surpassed the lower level of competition, and ever since, we’ve witnessed a lack of experience become his downfall.
Anthony Hernandez (10-2-0) had a rocky beginning to his UFC career when losing two contests, one via submission and the other by TKO. However, he bounced back in style, submitted one of the most dangerous jiu-jitsu black belts in the UFC (Rodolfo Vieira), overcame Josh Fremd, and most recently submitted a robust Marc-Andre Barriault.
Shahbazyan vs. Hernandez: Fight Tape Analysis
Momentum, fight IQ, and grappling will favor Hernandez this weekend. Riding a 3-fight win streak with two of those bouts ending inside the distance should place “Fluffy” with a confidence level high enough to believe Shahbazyan is no match.
On the feet, we shouldn’t be ignorant towards Shahbazyan as he’ll unquestionably have the advantage. He possesses one-punch KO power and doesn’t waste time head-hunting. That said, composure and a well-planned game plan are all Hernandez will need.
With another striker versus grappler matchup, it’s easier to pick the grappler in Hernandez because his striking is also serviceable to the point where the game plan won’t be overly apparent.
UFC Vegas 73 Co-Main Event Odds & Prediction
The UFC prices at OddsTrader have placed Hernandez as the betting favorite, and I agree with the price.
A wrestling offensive and top control will put Hernandez in the positions required to win, while Shahbazyan won’t have much to offer outside of a stand-up war. And across 15 minutes, the youngster has more potential to fade and surrender to a Hernandez whooping on the mat.
UFC Pick: Anthony Hernandez ML (-200) at Caesars Sportsbook
