We’re headed to the playoffs! It’s mid-January, and we’ve got some intriguing games on the horizon this weekend. The one that catches our eye the most is this one. The Chargers against the Jaguars. Despite Jacksonville being the home team, the Chargers are favorites by 2.5 points at the NFL odds boards.
Yeah… the Chargers team that played their starters in Week 18 and lost to the Denver Broncos. That team is the favorite against an up-and-coming Jacksonville Jaguars team.
The Jaguars didn’t play the best offense against Tennessee last weekend, but we’re willing to give them a pass, knowing they struggled in a win-or-go-home, divisional matchup. That’s usually how those types of games go.
Jacksonville’s defense stepped up when the Jaguars needed it the most, and now Trevor Lawrence is in the postseason for the first time going up against Justin Herbert, who is also in the first postseason of his career with the Chargers.
Neither team has been in the postseason for a long time. Experience isn’t a thing. But Doug Pederson is probably the better head coach in this game. He’s got a Super Bowl title to his name.
Back the Jaguars. Here’s why.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Saturday, January 14, 2023 – 08:15 PM EST at TIAA Bank Field
Why You Can’t Trust Los Angeles
The Chargers won 10 games this year. They put together a great season despite losing so many players throughout the season to injury.
The Chargers are now primarily healthy, except for Mike Williams and Joey Bosa. But Justin Herbert found a way to win with whatever he was given week-by-week.
Herbert led the Chargers with 25 touchdowns and ten interceptions with 4739 yards passing. He always had Austin Ekeler by his side, who scored about a touchdown per game and had over 900 yards rushing despite earning only 204 carries. Ekeler was used a lot in the passing game and was a key contributor when most of the other starters on offense were injured.
The Chargers need a more robust offensive line. The pass protection was better than the run block this year, which allowed Herbert to have a great season passing the football.
Jacksonville Is Up For the Challenge
However, Jacksonville will be prepared. The Jaguars have an average secondary, but the pass rush has been able to force many mistakes. Just look at what happened in last week’s game to Joshua Dobbs.
The Jaguars have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL and should be able to disrupt Herbert, especially when they stop the run just as well upfront.
The Jaguars Are The Home Team
In a playoff atmosphere, it’s good to be the home team. The Jaguars are starting to develop as a team, with Trevor Lawrence in the picture. Lawrence had 25 touchdowns with eight interceptions on the season. He threw for 4113 yards and developed a solid connection with guys like Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram.
Kirk was signed to a long-term deal, and the Jaguars were mocked for it. Instead, Kirk has 84 catches for 1108 yards and eight touchdowns. This new Jaguars regime has an eye for talent and built their team around fits and needs.
Lawrence also has a familiar face in the backfield. His former Clemson teammate, Travis Etienne Jr., rushed for 1125 yards in his first season in the league. He’s also added five touchdowns and has had some big games for the Jaguars this season.
The Jaguars have a better offensive line and are also below-average in the run game with the line, but the run game has still been more effective for Jacksonville.
What Should We Expect?
Los Angeles has been extremely poor against the run throughout the season, and with Etienne running the show, the Jaguars should be able to break out for a couple of significant gains against the Chargers in the run game.
That would help keep the offense balanced too.
The Betting Pick
The Jaguars will be at home with a more balanced offense and a much better defense. Yet, they’ll be underdogs against a Chargers team that hasn’t made the playoffs since Herbert was on the roster.
The Chargers are one of the worst run defenses in the league. The pass rush isn’t getting to the backfield quickly enough. They have a solid secondary, but if Lawrence has time in the pocket, it won’t matter.
The Jaguars will also be able to play more balanced on offense. Meanwhile, the Chargers will need help to earn a heavy amount of yards in the run game with Ekeler.
Therefore, we’re rolling with the Jaguars at home in the Wild Card round. It’s an Upset Alert!
NFL Pick: Jaguars (+124) at SBK
