The NFL Week 18 schedule has plenty of games that will lock up the final playoff seeds this Sunday afternoon, including the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
The game we’re focused on today is an NFC South rematch between the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons that could determine the division winner should Tampa Bay win on Saturday against Carolina.
Let’s look at the latest odds and preview this matchup with our Sunday football picks.
Best Bets for New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons
For our best NFL Week 18 bets, we’re looking at the NFC South showdown between the teams who are actually playing the best football right now in the Saints and Falcons.
You’d think this was the division title game instead of Panthers vs. Buccaneers, who are both struggling. But the Panthers could be rooting hard for the Saints should they lose on Saturday.
The Saints have gone 5-3 ever since rookie Tyler Shough took over at quarterback, hitting the team’s preseason win total over 4.5 wins by himself. But the Saints are relying on him as he’s already had:
- Four wins with over 270 passing yards
- A touchdown
- No interceptions
- Tied for the most by a rookie in NFL history
But the Falcons have a very good pass rush and pass defense that has made life miserable in their building this year for the likes of Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford. Shough could struggle with that too, and the Falcons have a veteran in Kirk Cousins who is managing the game well, and don’t forget about the dominance of running back Bijan Robinson.
NFL Early Sunday Odds (Falcons -3.5)
This Sunday’s matchup has the Falcons opening as a 2.5-point home favorite, with the line moving up to 3 or 3.5 points after that impressive win on Monday night against the highly favored Rams. The Falcons are 9-7 ATS this year and have already won 24-10 at New Orleans in Week 12.
The total is about average for NFL Week 18 games at 44.5 points. You do have a rookie quarterback against a good pass defense. But the Falcons have also scored at least 23 points in 8-of-9 games, so their scoring has been fairly consistent with the quarterback switch from Michael Penix Jr. to Kirk Cousins.
Still, the over is just 5-11 in New Orleans games, the second-worst over record in 2025.
NFL Early Sunday Pick
For our Sunday NFL prediction, we are leaning towards the under 44.5 points, but our favorite pick is for the Falcons to cover the 3.5-point spread.
A big part of this is finishing on a high note to get to 8-9, possibly the same record as the other teams at the top of the NFC South, and the hope to keep Raheem Morris’ head coaching job for 2026.
But the Falcons have already faced Tyler Shough, and if not for a pick-six thrown by Cousins, they would have held the Saints to just 3 points in that game. Shough still threw for 243 yards, but it was a struggle to finish drives against this stingy defense.
The Saints are also playing better defense late in the season, but Robinson is such a great back with dynamic runs, and Drake London and Kyle Pitts give Cousins more weapons after London missed the Week 12 game.
We’ll trust the Falcons at home to cover the spread in what should still be a relatively close game and not a massive blowout to end 2025.
Expert Pick: Falcons -3.5 (-102) at BetMGM
Atlanta’s Kirk Cousins (Under 215.5 Passing Yards)
For NFL player props from this game, we like Kirk Cousins to go under 215.5 passing yards.
While he’s looked healthier this year after the torn Achilles slowed him down in 2024, he hasn’t really thrown the ball a lot in this offense outside of the Tampa Bay game. But his best games with Atlanta are all against Tampa Bay, so that’s not a coincidence.
But in his other games, Cousins has gone under 215.5 passing yards in 5-of-7 starts, including 5 games under 200 passing yards.
The Falcons have that great running game with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, and they can rely on their defense at home to keep the score down and not make this a shootout. Cousins had 199 yards in New Orleans and shouldn’t really do any better than that here to end the season.
Expert Pick: Kirk Cousins Under 215.5 Passing Yards (-115) at BetMGM
Your NFL Sunday Betting Game Plan
For your Sunday football picks, our top game in the early afternoon window is the Atlanta Falcons hosting the New Orleans Saints in an NFC South rematch. We have the Falcons covering the 3.5-point spread as our top bet, and we also like Atlanta’s Kirk Cousins to throw for under 215.5 passing yards.
Timing is always important for sports betting success. If you want to play our Sunday football picks or make other NFL picks on Week 18 games, then you should register with other top-rated sportsbooks to get the best odds.
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