This season already feels very different from the last one. Florida was National Champion last year, but the Gators this year are 5-3 and have failed to collect a signature win. UConn was down last year after winning two consecutive national titles, but the Huskies are now looking like their old selves.
For our College Basketball picks today, we want to leverage our awareness of these changes. In addition to betting on the high-profile battle between the Gators and Huskies, I will also recommend investing in the Illinois vs. Ohio State matchup.
Attacking the Basket Creates Success
I like UConn and Ohio State tonight because both teams have decisive matchup advantages. These are two of the best teams at scoring inside the arc – UConn ranks 33rd in two-point percentage, while Ohio State ranks number one.
These aren’t offenses that simply bully opposing defenses. Instead, they have the basketball equivalent of high-level offensive coordinators. UConn’s actions are more complex for opposing defenses, while Ohio State’s rely more on pace. Both teams face a defense that, based on what it’s displayed thus far, appears utterly unprepared to handle their opponent’s inside attack.
Meanwhile, UConn has an elite defense with the personnel to handle Florida’s offens,e while Ohio State’s defense matches up uniquely well against Illinois’ offense.
Florida Gators vs. UConn Huskies (-4.5)
This is a revenge matchup: UConn lost by two points to the Gators in last year’s Round of 32. To ask for a five-point shift, relative to last year’s game, in UConn’s favor feels like an extremely modest ask because the 8-1 Huskies, who recently won at Kansas by five, are clearly one of the nation’s top teams now, whereas Florida has lost to TCU and to its two high-profile opponents.
Florida’s defense has regressed relative to last year. The Gators rank eleventh in defensive efficiency only because they punished teams like Merrimack. They allowed Duke, TCU, and Arizona to flourish inside, allowing over 80 points to the latter two teams because they, unlike Duke, did not flounder from behind the arc or the free-throw line. UConn can thus easily exceed 80 points against the Gators.
On defense, UConn has only allowed Arizona, with its elite offense, to reach 70 points. The Huskies bring strong ball pressure from their perimeter defenders and top-quality shot-blocking talent. They rank 58th in steal percentage, positioning them well against a Florida offense that commits a ton of turnovers.
The Gators are extremely inefficient from deep, so they’ll have to rely on ball-handling and bigs to navigate UConn’s mixture of tall rim-protectors and stout on-ball defenders. UConn’s interior defense, despite having faced super tough matchups, ranks top 16 in two-point percentage and block percentage. The Huskies will thus find it simple to contain Florida’s one-dimensional offense, which will fail to keep pace with the Huskies’ scoring.
Expert Pick: UConn -4.5 (-110) at BetMGM
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (+4)
Illinois is a great example of why it is necessary to look past surface-level statistics. The Fighting Illini appear daunting because their defense ranks 26th in two-point percentage. They just held Tennessee to 62 points by shutting down its inside scoring. But the Buckeyes are a completely different beast, with their offense ranking 132 spots ahead of Tennessee’s in two-point percentage.
Ohio State will establish tempo on its home floor to create a faster pace of play than the Illini prefer. With its speed, as well as its incessant barrage of moving players and the presence of its highly efficient shooting threats behind the arc, Ohio State’s offense will ensure that maximal driving space is available to its scorers.
The Buckeyes will thrive inside against an Illinois defense that has struggled mightily against offenses that excel at leveraging the threat that they pose from behind the arc in order to attack the basket. Alabama and Texas Tech both shoot a lot of threes and were accordingly able to lean on their inside scoring to score over 80 points against the Illini.
On defense, the Buckeyes are one of the best teams at limiting three-point makes. They held Notre Dame to three-of-ten from behind the arc, for example. They will make an Illini offense that relies heavily on shooting threes uncomfortable.
Illinois lost its conference opener at Northwestern last year because traveling in Big Ten country is notoriously tough. Ohio State’s matchup advantages will do the most, though, to secure its victory
Expert Pick: Ohio State +4 (-110) at Caesars
Place Your Bets
My top NCAAB picks today are UConn and Ohio State. Remember to sign up with multiple top sportsbooks so that you can line-shop and take advantage of these favorable picks!
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