The winless Miami Dolphins travel to Buffalo to take on the undefeated Bills in this week’s edition of Thursday Night Football.
The Bills are coming off a huge win over the New York Jets to improve to 2-0 and are in first place in the AFC East. The Miami Dolphins fought hard but fell short in a 33-27 loss to the New England Patriots, and they now look to save their season and potentially their head coach’s job when they take the field after 2 tough losses. The Bills will look to keep rolling as this year can finally be their Super Bowl year.
When these two division rivals take the field, who should you back to make a winning NFL pick?
Thursday Night Football Odds
This line opened with the Buffalo Bills favored by 12.5 points, and the Miami Dolphins have taken a little money to move the line to Miami +12.
This line shows you how different these two teams are perceived right now by the market. The Bills are a true Super Bowl contender and one of the top teams in the league. The Miami Dolphins are the favorites to have the first head coach fired this season. Miami Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel is on the hot seat, and if the Dolphins don’t cover the spread, this might be his last game as the Dolphins head coach.
Thursday Night Football Picks
Bills -12
The Miami Dolphins are a lazy team, and former players have criticized coach Mike McDaniel’s practices as the softest, easiest practices in the league. Buffalo Bills head coach Sean McDermott does not jump off the page with creative and unique play designs, but he consistently teaches and develops his players, and the team plays with a sense of discipline and togetherness.
Obviously, having one of the best players in the world in Josh Allen makes Sean McDermott’s job much easier, but regardless, McDermott understands what it takes to be a leader of men. Mike McDaniel might know how to draw up a great play call, but the lack of discipline and accountability on the Miami team is glaring.
This will be an interesting game to see how Miami reacts to their tough loss to the New England Patriots. Miami was close to getting the win when their running back De’Von Achane ran out of bounds on what appeared to be a go-ahead touchdown towards the end of the game. That’s how close the margins are for winning and losing in this league.
However, when you look at the Buffalo Bills, you see a team that is so much better than the rest of the league. The Buffalo Bills just traveled to New York and absolutely manhandled their division rival, the Jets, 30-10. I believe the Jets have a better roster and are a better-coached team. If the Buffalo Bills can do that to the Jets on the road, what are they going to do to the Dolphins at home? This mismatch is simply too big. Mike McDaniel makes a fine offensive coordinator somewhere, but he’s not cut out to be a head coach in the National Football League.
Expert Pick: Buffalo Bills -12 (-110) at BetMGM
Under 49.5
I’m not too high on Miami, but if Buffalo puts up points at will, which is quite possible given the weak Miami defense, will they play a prevent style defense that will allow the Dolphins to grab meaningless scores late in the game? That could push this game over the total. However, after getting an early lead, I do think the Buffalo will try to run the ball and control the clock, limiting the amount of possessions in the game. Also, Buffalo will be able to get a huge lead early.
The Dolphins’ offense looked serviceable against the Patriots, but the Bills are at a different level right now. The Dolphins offense will once again be shut down, playing in the frigid fall air of Buffalo, rather than the warm, humid environment in Miami that the Dolphins love so much. As the game gets colder, so does the Dolphins’ level of play. Bet the under.
Expert Pick: Under 49.5 (-110) at BetMGM
Thursday Night Football Prop Bets
James Cook – Rushing Yards
James Cook held out of training camp saying that he was worth more money, and so far, everything that he has done proves that he did deserve all of the extra cash he received when renegotiating his contract.
After getting 44 yards against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 1, Cook exploded for 132 rushing yards against the New York Jets. Baltimore has an excellent defense, the Jets are a work in progress, and Miami’s defense is absolutely awful.
James Cook will take advantage of a team that is not putting forth 100% effort. Stopping the run is mainly a display of effort. Take James Cook to have another huge game.
Expert Pick: James Cook Over 62.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at BetMGM
De’Von Achane – Touchdowns (+100) at BetMGM
The Miami Dolphins used to be built around Tyreek Hill, but now their primary weapon is explosive running back De’Von Achane.
Achane can break a run for big yards out of the backfield, but is even more dangerous when catching passes. When Achane is at his best, he’s getting an even mix of rushes and receptions. He is targeted in the pass game quite often, especially down in the Red Zone, where he can be schemed to only make one man miss, which is one of his specialties. When you combine blazing speed with good instincts, you have a dangerous runner.
Although the Dolphins are in trouble this year, they still have bright spots, and one of them is the play of De’Von Achane. Bet on Achane to reach the end zone this Thursday night.
Expert Pick: De’Von Achane Anytime Touchdown (+100) at BetMGM
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