Whether a favored team covers a huge spread is typically not going to be decided by what the favored team’s starters are capable of. Regardless of how well they match up with their opponent, a mixture of situational factors and bench play is usually going to decide whether the favorite wins by enough points.
One of my best College Basketball picks today is an ATS play for Georgia Tech vs. Duke that accounts for these extra factors. I am also interested in the side for Drexel vs. UNC Wilmington.
Know the Ways in Which Teams Are Stubborn
Teams rely on tendencies to constitute their identity. Identity is obviously a more stable thing than game-to-game matchup dynamics, so identity can become a problem under certain circumstances. For example, Georgia Tech is a massive underdog against Duke. Obviously, when a team falls behind by a ton of points, it should want to shoot more three-pointers than two-pointers in order to make the game competitive. Shooting a lot of threes is not part of Georgia Tech’s identity, however.
The Yellow Jackets are stubborn in the sense that they attempt threes at one of the lowest rates. Stubbornness will also pose a problem for UNC Wilmington tonight.
The Seahawks are utterly bereft of shot-blocking talent and are, partly to try to make up for this deficiency, determined to protect the basket. Consequently, they allow three-point attempts at one of the highest rates. This defensive tendency is something that their opponent today can exploit. Both Duke, a 27.5-point favorite, and Drexel, a 12.5-point underdog, will exploit their opponent’s stubbornness to cover the spread.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. Duke Blue Devils (-27.5)
Expect the best version of Duke today because the Blue Devils are coming off a loss. If you were to look at how Duke responded, in terms of ATS record, to losses last year, then you would be misled. True, the Blue Devils were 1-2 ATS after a loss last year, but we have to break down the two ATS losses in order to understand why this year will be different.
In the Blue Devils’ first such ATS loss, they were up 58-29 with 9:27 to go. In the second such ATS loss, they were up 58-32 with 10:39 to go. They failed to cover the spread because they lacked sufficient depth to continue thriving in the waning minutes.
Duke’s Improved Depth and Late-Game Dominance
This year, Duke is achieving massive blowouts because it is continuing to thrive in the final ten minutes. This is evident in its 41-point win over Western Carolina, its 114-59 win over Army, its 38-point win over Indiana State, and so on. In its 100-42 win over Niagara, for example, its second-best ten-minute phase of the game was the last one.
When Duke beat Georgia Tech by 26 last year, the Blue Devils were not coming off a loss, were playing on the road, and were not as deep. Their improvement in terms of depth is evident in the fact that they rank close to 100 spots higher in bench minutes than last year.
Matchup Advantages Against Georgia Tech
Relative to its 26-point win over Georgia Tech last year, one has to expect a substantially stronger Duke win off a loss and at home. They will have no problem dismantling Georgia Tech, with Duke’s tenth-ranked defense containing a Georgia Tech offense that is one-dimensional in its heavy reliance on scoring inside, and with Duke’s similarly elite offense flourishing against a Georgia Tech defense that has allowed over 80 points to Lafayette, Drake, and Mississippi State and 92 points to Georgia, which is the best offense that it had encountered before tonight. In sum, I am foreseeing a 35-point Duke win in this game.
Expert Pick: Duke -27.5 (-110) at Caesars
Drexel Dragons vs. UNC Wilmington Seahawks (-12.5)
When the Seahawks fell behind early in their last game to a far inferior North Carolina A&T team, the Seahawks showed how deficient their interior defense can be. While they allow a low opposing two-point percentage on the season, they have been facing so many teams that, on offense, rank outside the top 300 in two-point percentage.
The fact that the Seahawks rank 334th in block rate accentuates my point. One can’t count on their interior defense no matter how heavily they are favored. They have to devote more resources to limiting easy layups because they lack shot-blocking talent. Due to their determination to compensate for this lack, they are especially vulnerable to offenses that like to shoot threes. For example, they were upset at home by Howard, even though Howard doesn’t attempt many threes, because Howard was able to be efficient from behind the arc.
Drexel is a great underdog today because the Dragons attempt threes at a high rate and are efficient from deep. In their most recent games, they have been sizzling behind the arc. They now rank in the top 90 in three-point percentage. Drexel, in sum, will score too many points for UNC Wilmington to have a chance at covering the spread.
Drexel’s Defense vs. UNC Wilmington
On offense, UNC Wilmington is at its best behind the arc, on the glass, and at the free-throw line. Drexel’s defense has a strong outlook because it is one of the stingiest in terms of its ability to limit three-point attempts and because it is one of the better teams at defensive rebounding and, recently, also at limiting opposing free throws.
Drexel’s developing defense has held its last eight opponents to 75 points or fewer. 80 points is more realistic for Drexel’s offense than 70 points, so the Dragons can be counted on to cover the spread tonight.
Expert Pick: Drexel +12.5 (-110) at BetMGM
It’s Hoops Season!
The college football season is about to wrap up within the next few weeks. It’s officially college basketball season. After this week, most conferences will be in the thick of the schedule, and games will become much more exciting.
We are backing Duke and Drexel tonight, but remember that there’s value on the board everywhere. Keep checking the OddsTrader dashboard for discrepancies and fire on the +EV bets to continue profiting this basketball season.
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