There are two schools of thought when it comes to this week’s Thursday Night Football bets.
The first is we just take the biggest edges available on the NFL odds board, and size our bets accordingly; the second is to sacrifice some of that edge and put together a profitable same-game parlay that looks “recreational” enough to avoid getting our action capped.
Both schools are valid in general, but the sharp route is our preferred choice for Thursday’s matchup.
Best Bets for Dallas vs. Detroit
There isn’t much to choose from between the Dallas Cowboys (6-5-1 SU, 7-5 ATS) and the Detroit Lions (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS).
If you look at the full 2025 season thus far, Detroit (plus-76 point differential) has obviously outperformed Dallas (plus-9), but the Cowboys have bridged the gap of late, sweeping their last three SU and ATS while the Lions went 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS.
Looks like another toss-up for tonight’s NFL picks.
Thursday Night Odds (DET –3, –115)
There it is: Another point spread with the home team favored by a field goal. It’s the classic sign of an even matchup on paper, or at least close enough.
The reports we’re looking at show sharp action and big bets on Cowboys +3, and the wiseguys are also fond of Under 54.5, albeit with less volume than the point spread. Both lines have held steady since the first Week 14 NFL odds were posted, with roughly equal consensus on either side.
Thursday Night Pick: Under 54.5 (–112)
If we go purely by the projections, the Cowboys show 4.1% Expected Value at +3 (–105) on the spread, and 7.5% EV at +145 on the moneyline.
However, we’re more confident in the Under, even though it checks in at closer to 2% EV.
The predicted final score of Dallas 25, Detroit 27 gives us 2.5 points of breathing room below this total, compared to one point with the spread – even if we’re dealing with the magic number 3. Make it a classic underdog-Under parlay if you want both in your NFL picks this week.
Lions’ Jared Goff (Under 22.5 Completions –110)
We usually feature the Over in our NFL player props, but most of the prop projections for Thursday’s contest are pointing at the Under, which makes sense given the sharp action on the total.
The key here is Dallas acquiring DT Quinnen Williams and LB Logan Wilson at the trade deadline. Also, Jared Goff (22 completions per game) would have missed Thursday’s total in two of these last three games for the Lions.
Goff is projected for 23.1 completions against Dallas, but that number probably doesn’t give the recent additions of Williams and Wilson enough weight. We’ll follow the sharps and hit the other side of our Goff prop instead.
Bet on Thursday Night Football Now!
All these Under bets are on the sharp side, which is the main reason we’re avoiding the SGP altogether – we also don’t have big enough edges to unleash the kind of big bets that risk setting off the wiseguy alarms at the sportsbooks.
Stick with a sharp-friendly location for this week’s Thursday Night Football bets; the comprehensive reviews at OddsTrader will help you choose which books to open accounts at, so you can shop around for the best price on the board when you place your wager.
Big Bucks, No Whammies With OddsTrader Turbo
We might be going against some of the NFL projections for this week’s picks, but that’s only because of the larger context that numbers sometimes miss, like Williams and Wilson joining the Big D.
You’ll get the best of both worlds when you sign up for our premium betting suite at OddsTrader Turbo; all the projections are at your fingertips, and our exclusive BetStation chatbot will provide the context by answering any questions you might have about Thursday’s matchup. Try OddsTrader Turbo free for 30 days and see for yourself why it’s the hottest commodity in sports betting.
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.