We’re down to two weeks of NFL games to decide the playoff seeds. For this week’s top NFL predictions, we have NFL picks Week 17 for a trio of important games, including a Saturday special playoff rematch from last year between the Houston Texans and Los Angeles Chargers.
Let’s look at the latest NFL odds from top-rated sportsbooks.
NFL Picks Week 17 At-a-Glance
Our NFL picks for Week 17 look at the Chargers facing Houston’s top-ranked defense, the AFC North rematch between the Steelers and Browns, and whether the Jets can stay close with the Patriots in the AFC East.
But let’s start with Saturday’s game in Los Angeles, where the Chargers are still alive for the AFC West title.
Houston Texans vs. Los Angeles Chargers (Chargers -1.5)
Saturday, December 27, 2025 – 04:30 PM ET
These teams matched up in the wild card round last year, and Justin Herbert threw a career-high 4 interceptions after finishing the 2024 regular season with 3 picks.
The scary part is that this Houston defense is even better this year, with great pass rushers and an improved secondary that is fast and playing with a ton of confidence. They’ve already led Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes into two of the worst games of their careers.
Worse, Herbert has been pressured and hit frequently as he has to play without his starting offensive tackles. He had hand surgery recently and continues to be an effective scrambler, but he does take his share of hits and has thrown more picks this year.
But Houston’s offense is not always reliable with C.J. Stroud, as evidenced by Houston’s close call with the lowly Raiders on Sunday.
This game should have a playoff atmosphere with both teams fighting for better seeds, and they are both well coached with strong defenses. But let’s trust that Houston defense to travel and make life hard on Herbert again in an upset win.
Expert Pick: Texans +1.5 (-110) at BetMGM
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns (Browns +4)
Sunday, December 28, 2025 – 01:00 PM ET
Before this AFC North matchup kicks off, we might know that the Steelers have won the AFC North if Baltimore loses in Green Bay on Saturday night. But given this rivalry and that it’s only Week 17, Mike Tomlin will likely play all of his healthy starters here anyway to get to 10 wins and let them rest in Week 18 before the wild card round.
But one Steeler likely missing here will be wideout D.K. Metcalf, who was suspended for 2 games for punching a fan in Detroit. He’s appealed, but chances are he’ll be out Sunday.
The passing game likely wasn’t going to be a big part of the offense anyway, as the Browns are elite at stopping it, and Myles Garrett will be looking to set the single-season sack record with just 1 more sack.
That’s why you should expect Pittsburgh to barely throw the ball, lean on the running game that’s really picked things up with Kenneth Gainwell, and for the defense to force rookie Shedeur Sanders into mistakes like he’s had every week against the better teams.
The Steelers should cover the spread in an ugly, low-scoring game.
Expert Pick: Steelers -4 (-110) at BetMGM
New England Patriots vs. New York Jets (Jets +13.5)
Sunday, December 28, 2025 – 01:00 PM ET
This AFC East rivalry has been one-sided for years, with the Patriots long getting the best of the Jets. It already happened in Week 11 when the Patriots beat the Jets 27-14 as New York had no answers for Drake Maye.
Aaron Glenn’s defense really hasn’t had answers for any quarterback this year. The 2025 Jets have zero interceptions on defense in 15 games, giving them a chance to set an NFL record for futility. To make matters worse, the offense has largely been ineffective.
The Patriots are coming off a comeback win at Baltimore, where Maye had his first 300-yard passing game in the NFL. They are so close to locking up the AFC East and still alive for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, too.
They should be able to dominate the Jets on both sides of the ball to win this game by 2 touchdowns to cover the spread again.
Expert Pick: Patriots -13.5 (-110) at BetMGM
Place Your Week 17 NFL Bets Now!
For our NFL picks Week 17, our most anticipated game is Saturday afternoon to see if Justin Herbert can handle that Houston defense any better than he did in January.
We’re going with Houston in that one, and we also recommend the Steelers to cover against the Browns for their 10th win, and for the Patriots to cover against the Jets once again.
Timing is very important for sports betting success. You’ll want to keep up on the latest news and line movement, ensuring you are placing your most optimal NFL bets. So register at different sportsbooks to make sure you are getting the best prices for your NFL picks.
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