There’s nothing better than some MLB on Father’s Day! I’ve added three underdog plays using the AI Model for today’s slate and listed them below. Consider getting these bets in at the online sportsbooks before you go out for the holiday!
Picks Summary:
- Gabriel Arias Under .5 Hits (+120) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
- Jose Iglesias Under .5 Singles (+140) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
- Enrique Hernandez Under .5 Hits (+115) at Caesars Sportsbook
Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle Mariners
Sunday, June 15, 2025 – 04:10 PM EDT at T-Mobile Park
The AI Model believes Gabriel Arias will earn just .545 hits in today’s game against the Mariners. Yet, his hits prop is at .5, with the under at +120. There’s value in Arias’ under today.
Does Gabriel Arias Need Glasses?
The Guardians will likely bat Gabriel Arias 8th in the lineup today. The right-handed shortstop has hit a .060 ISO and wOBA of .243 with more than 34% of strikeouts over the last month against righties. Arias has also hit 22.6% of line drives and still has a BABIP of .290, which isn’t terrible. That said, his production likely won’t improve today against Emerson Hancock.
Hancock is a right-handed pitcher who has held his last 44 righties to a .122 ISO. He’s also induced 44.1% of ground balls against righties and has allowed just 35.3% of hard contact over the last month to righties. Arias will soon get into a rhythm. However, it is unlikely to happen against Hancock.
The Pick
Let’s back Arias to add below .5 hits at +120 odds using the AI Model.
MLB Pick: Gabriel Arias Under .5 Hits (+120) at Caesars Sportsbook
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Sunday, June 15, 2025 – 04:10 PM EDT at Chase Field
The AI Model thinks Jose Iglesias will earn .512 total bases today. However, his prop for singles is at .5, with the under juiced to +140. This is an 18.3% positive EV play that you’ll absolutely want to consider for the Padres-Diamondbacks game.
Has the Luck Run Out For Iglesias?
Jose Iglesias has added a .000 ISO and wOBA of .296 against his last 22 righties. He’s a right-hander himself, but he’s hit more than 73% of ground balls against righties while adding a 0% barrel percentage against righties over the last month.
Meanwhile, he’ll battle Merrill Kelly of the Diamondbacks. Kelly has been as good as the best pitcher in baseball over the last month. He’s struck out 32.2% of batters in that time and has allowed only a .092 ISO and wOBA of .222 to his previous 118 batters.
Kelly has limited fly balls and has earned more than 49% of ground balls over the last month. He’s really turned things around over the last month and has a very good matchup on paper against Iglesias.
The Pick
I’ll fade Iglesias. It’s unlikely he’ll get anything going against Kelly and the Diamondbacks.
MLB Pick: Jose Iglesias Under .5 Singles (+140) at Bet365
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Sunday, June 15, 2025 – 07:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
The AI Model predicts Enrique Hernandez will add .433 hits tonight. Yet, his prop is currently at .5, with the under at +115. This is another hits prop where the under has value.
Enrique Isn’t Hitting Lefties!
The Dodgers will likely bat Enrique Hernandez 7th in tonight’s lineup against Kyle Harrison of the Giants.
Harrison is a left-handed pitcher who has limited his last 57 righties to a .137 ISO. He’s also struck out nearly 23% of righties and has added almost 13% of swinging strikes with only a 5.3% barrel percentage to righties.
Meanwhile, Hernandez, a right-handed hitter, has hit a .130 ISO and wOBA of .263 with 26.9% of strikeouts against lefties. He’s got a BABIP of just .200 and has hit more than 56% of ground balls with only 12.5% of line drives against lefties over the last month. That’s nothing to get excited about.
The Pick
Grab Enrique Hernandez to add below .5 hits tonight at +115.
MLB Pick: Enrique Hernandez Under .5 Hits (+115) at Caesars Sportsbook
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