Wednesday’s Top AI Pick
- Over 215.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
The Miami Heat continue to be the kings of the comeback this NBA postseason. The Denver Nuggets led 50-35 in the second quarter, but Miami rallied back and shot lights out in the fourth quarter to steal a road game in this series to even the Finals at 1-1. It was the 7th double-digit comeback win for Miami this postseason.
Wednesday night will bring a pivotal Game 3 to Miami, but the Nuggets are still favored by 2.5 points with a total of 215.5 points. The top-rated sportsbooks have been underrating Miami this entire postseason, and even with the potential return of scorer Tyler Herro, the Heat is again home underdogs.
We have our top pick for Game 3 from the computer predictions from OddsTrader.
Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat
Wednesday, June 07, 2023 – 08:30 PM EDT at Kaseya Center
Blueprint for Beating Denver?
We have not seen it often this year, but there is a possible blueprint for beating Denver. It involves making Nikola Jokic the primary scorer instead of setting up his teammates for easy shots at a high volume.
The execution is much harder than the simplicity of the blueprint, but the fact is Denver is 0-3 this postseason when Jokic scores 40 points, and the Nuggets were 7-13 (.350) in the regular season when Jokic had no more than 8 assists.
In Game 2, Jokic was incredible at getting bounces on the rim to go in on his way to 41 points, but he only had 4 assists and 5 turnovers. For the second game in a row, the Nuggets shot over 50% from the field but under 40% from 3 with Michael Porter Jr. (3-for-17 in the series) continuing to shoot poorly in the Finals. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has 13 points in two games, and Jamal Murray missed the game-tying 3 and finished Game 2 with 18 points.
The Nuggets are much deadlier when Jokic is doing triple-double things, but his teammates must deliver for that to happen.
Heat Close in Grand Fashion
The Heat continues to defy the NBA odds this postseason. They attempted just 2 free throws in Game 1, setting a new playoff record for the fewest attempts in a game in NBA history. But this time, they got to the line 20 times, and they were 9-of-10 in the fourth quarter, locking down the Nuggets when it mattered most.
The Heat shot 11-of-16 in the fourth quarter and were 9-of-10 at one point. They continue to get unexpected contributions from a bevy of undrafted players. Gabe Vincent led the team with 23 points, Duncan Robinson scored a quick 10 points to spark the fourth-quarter comeback, and Jimmy Butler was still there to close it with 8 points in the fourth. Bam Adebayo has also been very aggressive in the series for Miami and had 21 points with 9 rebounds.
Miami shot 48.6% from 3-point territory and had 18 more points from 3 than the Nuggets did in Game 2. That allowed the Heat to become the second team this season to beat Denver despite being outshot by over 3 percentage points.
Miami Heat Key Facts
- Miami is 7-2 ATS (77.8%) as a home underdog this season, the best record for any team with at least 6 such games.
- The Heat were +6.8 in Net Rating with Tyler Herro on the court this season, but they were -22.7 in Net Rating in the 2022 postseason when he played 381 minutes.
- Since 2003, the home team is 12-8 in Game 3 of the NBA Finals, including a 2-1 record for coach Erik Spoelstra.
- The Over hits in 60% (24-16) of games where Miami is an underdog this season.
Denver Nuggets Key Facts
- In games following a loss, the Nuggets are 19-13 ATS (59.4%) this season, the 2nd-best record in the NBA.
- Since the 2018-19 season, Denver is 10-2 against Miami, and Game 2 is the only loss that did not occur in the 2020 bubble.
- In the playoffs, 13-of-17 games have gone over 215.5 points for Denver.
- Since 2015, there have been 3 games in the NBA Finals where a team shot over 50% from the field but did not score 110 points, and Denver now has two of those games in this series.
Get Jokic the Help Needed
For all the talk after Game 1 of how Jokic makes everything look so easy with his decision-making, he looked more like a one-man army in Game 2, pressing the ball in the paint and getting enough generous bounces to score 41 points. But 4 assists speak poorly of his teammates, and he will need a lot more help than the 29 combined points from Murray, Caldwell-Pope, and Porter Jr. in Game 2.
Denver was 33-1 this season when shooting over 50% from the field and allowing fewer than 115 points. But make that 33-2 after Game 2. Also, in the 54 games this season where Denver has shot over 50%, Game 1 saw them score a season-low 104 points.
Miami Keeps Defying the Odds?
Miami was the lowest-scoring team in the regular season, but it also was No. 2 in points allowed. In the playoffs, the Heat continues defying odds, especially with 3-point shooting after ranking 27th on offense and 22nd on defense in the regular season.
The Heat beat the Celtics, who took the 3rd-most 3-point shots in NBA history this year, thanks largely to the 3-point shooting volatility in that series. The Heat have 15 games this season where they shot better than 45% from 3, and 7 of them are in the playoffs, including 3-of-4 games going into Game 3 here.
The Heat have only shot better than 45% from 3 in consecutive games once this season, though that was Games 6 & 7 against Boston. They were at 48.3% in Game 2 in Denver. Maybe Gabe Vincent and Duncan Robinson cool down, but Caleb Martin still hasn’t done anything in this series, and Tyler Herro, the team’s best 3-point shooter in the regular season, could be back Wednesday night.
The Heat may be frustrating Denver a bit, but Game 3 has a chance to be the highest-scoring game yet in this series with both teams understanding the intensity required to win this championship. We will take the Over again as our computer pick agrees.
Oddstrader Predicted Score: Nuggets 110 – Heat 110
NBA Pick: Over 215.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
