After the Indiana Pacers earned games 1 and 2 in the Eastern Conference Finals, the New York Knicks responded with a Game 3 victory.
The Knicks made numerous adjustments in Game 3. They played more of the bench, which provided a legitimate spark and helped pull off an upset win on Sunday. Now this series is just 2-1 in favor of the Pacers. The Knicks have the chance to earn home-court advantage back with a win in Game 4 tonight.
Let’s take a closer look before heading to the top-rated sportsbooks.
Picks Summary:
- Pacers -2 (-110)
- Under 221 (-110)
- Mitchell Robinson Under .5 Assists (+120)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
New York Knicks vs. Indiana Pacers
Tuesday, May 25, 2025 – 08:00 PM EDT at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Our AI Model likes the Pacers to win 111-108 over the Knicks at home. With the Pacers at -2, Indiana against the spread is the best bet. Meanwhile, the total is stuck at 221. The AI Model thinks the Under is the play, since the projected total is only 219 points.
Lastly, our AI Model predicts that Mitchell Robinson will earn 0.084 assists tonight. His prop number is at .5, but the Under is +120. There’s value in Robinson not adding an assist in tonight’s game.
Can Jalen Brunson Stay On The Court?
The Knicks have gone on massive runs in two consecutive games with Jalen Brunson on the bench. He’s not being benched due to poor play. Instead, he’s been getting into foul trouble a lot in this series.
Brunson’s inept defense and high turnovers have hurt the Knicks when he’s on the floor. Ultimately, the Knicks have distributed the ball more effectively and have taken better shots with Brunson on the bench.
Brunson is a great scorer, but he hasn’t done anything else for the Knicks. It’s why Delon Wright, Miles McBride and Landry Shamet played an integral part in Game 3. Those guys played tremendous defense and rallied the Knicks back in the third quarter.
Ultimately, the Pacers are targeting Brunson and trying to get him into foul trouble. He’s been baited and has been called for some fouls that probably shouldn’t be called. We’ll see how Brunson responds in Game 4, but it truly does feel like the Knicks have been better off without Brunson lately.
The Pacers Know What’s Coming!
It’s rare for the Knicks to go deep into the bench in the playoffs. However, the Knicks did just that to spark the team in Game 3. The Pacers should be more prepared for the Knicks’ bench.
New York’s defense will continue to be dominant, but the Pacers should at least be able to score at a higher rate in Game 4. After all, the Pacers rank second in the NBA in points per 100 possessions and first in the NBA in effective field goal percentage in this postseason. Indiana will probably score at a better rate in Game 4, but should also be able to get more stops against the Knicks’ depth in Game 4.
That’s why the AI Model likes the Under 221 and the Pacers to cover the two-point spread.
Don’t Count On Mitchell Robinson For An Assist!
Mitchell Robinson is on the court for several reasons. But it’s not for his assists and playmaking.
Robinson has earned just one assist in four of his last ten games. He’s hit this line in only 45% of his previous 20 games. Ultimately, Robinson is getting more playing time. But any time he touches the ball, teams don’t mind fouling him and putting him to the foul line.
When Robinson gets touches, he’s going straight for the dunk. Outside of that, he likely won’t get many opportunities even to earn an assist. He’s had just one potential assist in all three of these games. If his teammate doesn’t bury the one potential assist in 30 minutes, he’s out of luck. The opportunities for Robinson don’t come around very often.
That’s why I agree with the AI Model on Robinson to go Under .5 assists at plus-money.
The Picks
- Pacers -2 (-110)
- Under 221 (-110)
- Mitchell Robinson Under .5 Assists (+120)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
