It’s time for the Home Run Derby. I’ve added three props you should consider to make money tonight at our top-rated sportsbooks. These are all plus-money spots!
Picks Summary
- Pete Alonso to Make the Final (+165) at BetRivers
- Luis Robert to Make the Final (+175) at BetRivers
- Randy Arozarena to Defeat Adolis Garcia in First Round (+120) at Caesars Sportsbook
2023 Home Run Derby
Monday, July 10, 2023 – 08:00 PM EDT at T-Mobile Park
Pete Alonso
The first-round matchup between Pete Alonso and Julio Rodriguez will be the matchup everyone wants to see.
Rodriguez will be hitting in his home park against a two-time Derby champion Pete Alonso. Rodriguez defeated Alonso in 2022 after crushing 31 home runs in the semifinal matchup. However, Rodriguez ended up losing in the finals. Knowing Pete Alonso, he wants his revenge. He takes this Derby very seriously and would love to earn another Derby championship.
This matchup wasn’t just picked for the rematch. The bracket is based on home run totals during the season. Alonso has the second most home runs in the field, while Rodriguez is 7th of the right contestants.
Rodriguez hasn’t been a power threat this season for the Mariners. Of course, things will be different in the Home Run Derby. However, Alonso has never been taken out in the tournament’s first round, and it’s unlikely that that will happen to him this year.
He’d then get Mookie Betts or Vlad Guerrero Jr. He’d be the easy favorite against either. Vlad has struggled to find power throughout the season, and Betts has no confidence in himself to win the Derby.
That would be a solid path for Alonso to land into the Final.
MLB Prop Pick: Pete Alonso to Make The Final (+165) at BetRivers
Luis Robert Jr.
Luis Robert hasn’t been in the Home Run Derby yet, but he’s got the most home runs hit in the MLB in this field of eight. He’s facing Adley Rutschman, who is a switch-hitting catcher. No switch-hitter or catcher has won the Derby before.
This is a solid first matchup for Robert, despite him being a right-handed batter. Rutschman will likely bat left-handed, but I don’t think it’ll matter.
Robert would then face the winner of Randy Arozarena and Adolis Garcia. I’ll discuss this matchup shortly, but I like Arozarena’s chances. Robert acknowledged that he’s already practicing with bullpen catch Luis Sierra and hitting with a timer. He’s taking this just as seriously as Pete Alonso.
Most batters will practice and take it seriously, but some will just go in there, wing it, and hope for the best. That’s not what Robert is doing. Lucas Giolito said that hanging him a curve ball is a home run every time.
Even his manager, Pedro Grifol said that Robert has the makeup to win. I’ll take my chances and back him to earn at least a final appearance against Alonso.
MLB Prop Pick: Luis Robert to Make The Final (+175) at BetRivers
Randy Arozarena
When Randy Arozarena is hot, he’s hot. Remember the World Baseball Classic? He could do no wrong. He’ll take on his former teammate and friend Adolis Garcia, so you know that this matchup is going to be competitive and fun.
Garcia has more power than Arozarena, but when the meatballs come in, Arozarena probably has a quicker stroke and can hit more home runs than Garcia.
Arozarena acknowledged that he’s already won a Home Run Derby in his career, including a High-A derby he participated in and won. Arozarena also said he loves hitting homers in batting practice and thinks he’ll transition well into the Home Run Derby, even with so many people watching.
Arozarena has that demeanor about him. He’s always smiling and loose. Nothing seems to bother him. That should help keep the nerves down. He’ll look underwhelmed as he hits bomb after bomb in the first round.
Let’s take Arozarena to earn an upset in the first round of the Home Run Derby.
MLB Prop Pick: Randy Arozarena to Defeat Adolis Garcia in First Round (+120) at Caesars Sportsbook
