The computers at Oddstrader have been on fire recently. Here are three more plays for today’s slate in the MLB from the AI Model.
Picks Summary
- Mariners -1.5 (-120) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Reds +1.5 (-185) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Royals/Athletics Over 8.5 (-102) at Caesars Sportsbook
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox
Monday, August 21, 2023 – 08:10 PM EDT at Guaranteed Rate Field
Our AI Model believes the Mariners will earn a 5.6-3.2 victory over the White Sox tonight. Therefore, you can forget about the moneyline.
Seattle will pitch Luis Castillo for tonight’s matchup. Castillo has struck out 26% of batters over the last month and has limited walks to 5.5%. In the last 30 days, he’s also held batters to a .294 wOBA and has watched righties hit 60% of ground balls.
The White Sox should have a balanced lineup with at least four righties. The entire projected lineup for the White Sox has hit just a .117 ISO and wOBA of .296. Castillo has nothing to worry about.
Meanwhile, Touki Toussaint will man the mound for the White Sox. The right-hander has been awful against other right-handers in the last month. Toussaint has allowed a .263 ISO and wOBA of .414 to righties while walking 15.6% of them over that span.
Julio Rodriguez and Dylan Moore are two righties that can do severe damage against Toussaint. Take the Mariners on the run line, as the AI Model has suggested at the MLB odds board.
MLB Pick: Mariners -1.5 (-120) at Caesars Sportsbook
Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Angels
Monday, August 21, 2023 – 09:38 PM EDT at Angel Stadium
Our AI Model believes the Reds will lose tonight’s game 5.5-4.9, but that would still get them a win on the run line!
The Reds are underdogs but probably shouldn’t be. Graham Ashcraft will take the mound for the Reds. He’s allowed a .118 ISO and wOBA of .276 to his last 131 batters. He’s earned over 49% of grounders and has held teams to 22.1% of fly balls in that month.
He’ll take on an Angels lineup that has only hit a .284 wOBA over the last month. That projected lineup has also struck out nearly 24% of the time. Ashcraft doesn’t earn high strikeouts, but the Angels have six batters striking out at least 23.2% of the time against righties.
Meanwhile, Lucas Giolito will get the call for the Angels. He’s watched his last 56 lefties hit a .227 ISO and wOBA of .416. His last 62 righties have also hit a .276 ISO and wOBA of .372. Giolito will earn plenty of strikeouts in this game, but when he allows some hits, it’s usually trouble.
The Reds’ projected lineup has slugged a .193 ISO and wOBA of .325. The Reds have power and will use it to their advantage in this game.
I’ll take the Reds +1.5 at one of the top sportsbooks, even with heavy juice. I think the Reds can win this game outright. The AI Model doesn’t wholly agree, but the AI Model believes this game will be close. That’s enough for me.
MLB Pick: Reds +1.5 (-185) at Caesars Sportsbook
Kansas City Royals vs. Oakland Athletics
Monday, August 21, 2023 – 09:40 PM EDT at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
The AI Model suggests that the Royals and Athletics will go over 8.5 runs, with a combined score of 6.1-5.5. That’s 11.6 runs!
I know that the Athletics have struggled at the plate against lefties over the last month, but Tucker Davidson is on the mound for the Royals. He’s allowed a .372 wOBA throughout the season and has given up over 40% of hard contact against teams this season.
I wouldn’t trust Davidson, especially knowing he won’t go deep in this game. Davidson has averaged 26.38 pitches per appearance, so he won’t go incredibly deep.
On the other hand, Paul Blackburn will get the start for the Athletics. He’s been good, except he’s allowed 31.5% of line drives throughout the season. Meanwhile, the Royals have slugged a .178 ISO and wOBA of .344 and have only struck out 19.2% of the time against righties over the last month.
That’s got to count for something. The Royals offense has been outstanding recently and likely won’t stop against the Athletics.
Let’s take the Over 8.5 at -102 in this game. The AI Model even thinks we’ll get closer to 12 runs!
MLB Pick: Over 8.5 (-102) at Caesars Sportsbook
