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MLB Computer Picks for August 3: Brewers Bogart Betting Value


The Milwaukee Brewers are still a sharp pick on the MLB odds board – and even more so this Thursday versus the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Were the Milwaukee Brewers buyers or sellers at the trade deadline? Yes, yes they were. The Brewers were expected to add some talent ahead of Tuesday’s cut-off point, as they battle the Cincinnati Reds over the National League Central crown. And they did just that – while also shedding some talent.

Maybe they didn’t need much fixing anyway. The Brewers (58-51, plus-6.67 betting units at press time) have been one of our go-to choices for our baseball picks, and the computers at OddsTrader have Milwaukee coming out on top this Thursday when they host a team that was sold at the deadline.

Picks Summary:


Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Thursday, August 03, 2023 – 07:15 PM EDT at American Family Field


Remember when the Pirates (48-59, plus-1.38 units) were one of the best teams in baseball? That didn’t last long; Pittsburgh’s early-season success ran out at the end of April, sending this woebegone franchise back on track for their fifth losing season in a row.

Then again, maybe GM Ben Cherington knows what he’s doing. The former 2013 MLB Executive of the Year (as per The Sporting News) has made some smart moves since taking over the Pirates in 2019, and he made some more this past week, sending out the following players in exchange for a fine haul of prospects:

  • C Austin Hedges (.467 OPS)
  • DH Ji-man Choi (.731 OPS)
  • SP Rich Hill (4.70 xFIP)
  • 1B Carlos Santana (.732 OPS)

That last name is significant for Thursday’s MLB picks. Santana was shipped to Milwaukee, who picked up an additional bat from the New York Mets in LF Mark Canha (.725 OPS). Will Santana and Canha move the needle for a Brewers team with designs in the playoffs?

Maybe a little, but as far as Thursday is concerned, the OT computers have the Brewers winning 4.8 runs to 3.7. That seems a bit much given Milwaukee’s –120 moneyline odds; we’re still happy to recommend a single-unit wager at this price, even if you trim that projected winning margin in half.

Just one unit, though. As usual, the computers appear more interested in Pittsburgh starter Mitch Keller’s 3.97 ERA than his 3.69 xFIP, and there’s a slight difference between those numbers for Milwaukee’s Adrian Houser (4.43 ERA, 4.56 xFIP) as well.

MLB Pick: Brewers ML (-120) at WynnBET


Oakland Athletics vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Thursday, August 03, 2023 – 10:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium


Apparently, it’s still safe to bet the Over with Oakland (Over 56-46-5) on the diamond. Their pitching has been awful this year, to the point where the A’s had virtually nothing to offer opposing teams at the deadline.

JP Sears (4.09 ERA, 5.00 xFIP) “should” be one of those struggling pitchers, but he’s been fortunate to induce a .235 BABIP against this year – and the Over is still 10-9-2 in his 21 starts thus far.

None of those starts was against the Dodgers (Over 61-39-5). They’ve got the best Over record in the majors by far. While they did improve their bullpen by acquiring reliever Joe Kelly (3.10 xFIP) from the White Sox, that might not be enough to offset the struggles that Julio Urias (4.98 ERA, 4.38 xFIP, Over 9-6) has endured this year.

The OT computers can smell the value. They’ve got L.A. winning this game six runs to 2.8, and there’s no roof at Dodger Stadium to stop those 10-mph winds blowing towards right field, so bet accordingly – the computers have spoken.

MLB Pick: Over 8.5 (-120) at Caesars Sportsbook


Chicago White Sox vs. Texas Rangers

Thursday, August 03, 2023 – 02:05 PM EDT at Globe Life Field


The Rangers (Over 53-45-9) didn’t take any half-measures at the trade deadline. With the Houston Astros breathing down their necks in the American League West, Texas went out and grabbed Max Scherzer (4.01 ERA, 4.08 xFIP) from the New York Mets. The former three-time Cy Young winner will start Thursday against the sell-everything White Sox (Under 53-47-8).

But is Scherzer already washed up at age 39? Perhaps; the OT computers still like Texas to win this contest 6.5 runs to 3.2, which looks about right given how Chicago unloaded INF Jake Burger (.806 OPS) and half their bullpen at the deadline.

Scherzer being less than his old self will help our cause. So, will the White Sox send Touki Toussaint (3.50 ERA, 4.95 xFIP) to the mound for his sixth start of the season? Alas, the roof will likely be closed in Arlington, so the 100-degree weather won’t help us out. Make it a slight lean unless you can get something closer to –105 vig by the time you read this.

MLB Pick: Over 8.5 (-119) at SBK


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