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MLB Computer Picks for August 4: Phillies to Beat Red-Hot Royals

Brandon Marsh Philadelphia Phillies Miami Marlins
Brandon Marsh 16 of the Philadelphia Phillies and teammates celebrate a 4 2 win against the Miami Marlins Sam NavarroGetty ImagesAFP

It’s the start of the weekend! Let’s earn some profit in the MLB to start the weekend right! Here are our three favorite computer picks using our AI Model in the MLB.

Picks Summary


Kansas City Royals vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Friday, August 4, 2023 – 07:05 PM EDT at Citizens Bank Park


Our AI Model believes the Phillies will earn a 5.6-3.5 win over the suddenly red-hot Kansas City Royals. Philadelphia is a heavy favorite but might still have value with a projected score like that.

The Royals are suddenly red-hot. But that won’t last forever.

Jordan Lyles will take the mound for the Royals. He’s struck out only 16.7% of batters this season, allowing a .224 ISO and wOBA of .338 to 479 batters. Lyles has been awful against lefties over the last month. He’ll have to face tough lefties like Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Bryson Stott, and Brandon Marsh tonight.

On the other hand, Aaron Nola will get the call for the Phillies. He’s the ace of the staff but has struggled recently. However, the Royals have only hit a .153 ISO and wOBA of .293 against righties over the last month. Nola has kept his walks down, which will limit the damage if he starts to leave pitches over the zone.

The Royals rarely walk and have only four players with above-average stats against righties. I agree with the AI Model. Let’s ride with the Phillies at -1.5.

MLB Pick: Phillies -1.5 (-120) via Caesars Sportsbook


Miami Marlins vs. Texas Rangers

Friday, August 4, 2023 – 08:05 PM EDT at Globe Life Park


The AI Model believes the Rangers will earn a 6.6-4 victory over the Marlins in tonight’s series opener. The Rangers are just listed at -145, but the model expects them to crush. However, the Over might be the play in this game, with the total sitting at 8.5.

The Marlins will pitch Jesus Luzardo for tonight’s matchup against the Rangers. Luzardo has had a solid season and has held teams to a .129 ISO and wOBA of .306 over the last month. He can earn many grounders and strikeouts and limit high-fly balls.

But he will face a Rangers lineup with a .343 wOBA against lefties over the last month. Luzardo won’t have an easy task going up against this lineup. They’ve got three batters hitting a below-average ISO against lefties in the last month.

Meanwhile, the Rangers will give Jordan Montgomery the ball. He’s a left-handed pitcher who just came from the St. Louis Cardinals. The left-hander has struggled against lefties but has held his last 84 righties to a .304 wOBA.

Montgomery will only have to face two lefties in the Miami lineup, and he’s done very well keeping walks down. However, the Marlins have hit a .248 ISO and wOBA of .389 against lefties over the last month. Miami’s got a ton of potential against Montgomery tonight. Therefore, I’d be more comfortable riding the Over than taking the Rangers on the moneyline.

MLB Pick: Over 8.5 (-105) at Caesars Sportsbook


Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Friday, August 4, 2023 – 08:10 PM EDT at American Family Field


The AI Model suggests that the Brewers will earn a two-run victory over the Pirates tonight, 6-4. With The Brewers at -165, this is another valuable play from our model.

It’s been an ugly start to Quinn Priester’s rookie season. Priester is a highly regarded prospect for the Pirates, but he’s allowed a .311 ISO and wOBA of .412 since getting called into the majors. He’s faced 73 batters and has walked 15.1% and struck out only 17.8% of batters.

The Brewers have limited strikeouts well and continue to work walks. Therefore, this is an excellent matchup for the Milwaukee lineup tonight.

On the other hand, Colin Rea will get the start for the Brewers. He’s a righty struggling badly against lefties. However, the Pittsburgh lefties in the projected lineup have hit a .278 wOBA and have struck out 35.8% of the time against righties over the last month.

Rea has earned 26.4% of strikeouts in the last month and has earned nearly 32% of strikeouts against righties. The righties in the lineup have also struck out 34.3% of the time combined. Therefore, the Brewers have an edge at -165 to defeat the Pirates in tonight’s ball game. Let’s take Milwaukee on the moneyline here.

MLB Pick: Brewers (-165) at Caesars Sportsbook


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