It’s been a fun week tailing the AI Model! Let’s close out the weekend with three more best bets using our red-hot AI Model at the top-rated sportsbooks.
Picks Summary:
- Seth Lugo Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (+100)
- Mookie Betts Under .5 Runs (+110)
- Luis Torrens Under 1.5 Total Bases (-180)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Kansas City Royals vs. San Diego PadresÂ
Sunday, June 22, 2025 – 04:10 PM EDT at Petco ParkÂ
Our AI Model believes Seth Lugo will give up only 4.499 hits in tonight’s game for the Royals. Yet, his prop is currently at 5.5 hits allowed with the under at just +100. Lugo is a veteran pitcher and should be able to limit damage.
Lugo Has a Great Matchup!
Seth Lugo has been far from perfect this season.
Over the last 30 days, Lugo has allowed a .153 ISO and wOBA of .298 with 44.4% of ground balls and just 22.6% of strikeouts. Still, he’s kept his wOBA down over the last 30 days and will now face a Padres’ projected lineup that has combined to hit just a .107 ISO and wOBA of .277.
The Padres’ projected lineup has struck out 25.7% of the time while hitting below 20% of line drives against righties over the last 30 days. In addition, the Padres have hit a .244 BABIP against righties during the last month with the projected lineup.
Lugo has an ideal matchup. He’s thrown more than 92 pitches per start this season and has done a very good job at limiting runners on base.
The Pick
I’m with the AI Model and will back Seth Lugo to allow below 5.5 hits in today’s game against the Padres.
MLB Pick: Seth Lugo Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (+100) at Caesars Sportsbook
Washington Nationals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Sunday, June 22, 2025 – 04:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
The AI Model thinks Mookie Betts will earn just .293 runs in tonight’s game against the Nationals. Meanwhile, his run prop is at .5, with the under up to +110. There’s value in fading Betts from scoring a run tonight.
Even The Best Struggle Sometimes!
The Dodgers have one of the best lineups in baseball. However, Mookie Betts certainly hasn’t contributed the way he’d like lately. He’s hit just a .049 ISO and wOBA of .270 against his last 70 righties. Ultimately, he’s nailed 32.1% of hard contact and as a result, he’s earned a .245 BABIP.
Betts isn’t hitting righties well and will face Michael Soroka, who has limited righties very well as of late. Soroka has kept righties to a .135 ISO and wOBA of .253 over the last 30 days. He’s also limited line drives to 15.4% and has walked only 3.4% of righties. Don’t be surprised if Mookie Betts has an 0-for.
The Pick
Let’s ride the plus-money bet with fading Mookie Betts in the run category.
MLB Pick: Mookie Betts Under .5 Runs (+110) at Caesars Sportsbook
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Sunday, June 22, 2025 – 07:10 PM EDT at Citizens Bank Park
Our AI Model predicts Luis Torrens will finish tonight’s game with .509 total bases. However, you can find his total bases prop at 1.5, with the under up to -180. Fade the Mets’ catcher!
Luis Torrens Has Struggled Against Lefties!
Luis Torrens will likely be tonight’s starting catcher for the New York Mets. Torrens has hit a .000 ISO and wOBA of .000 against his last eight lefties. He’s also struck out 25% of the time and has walked none.
Tonight, he’ll battle Jesus Luzardo of the Phillies. While Luzardo has struggled a bit against righties lately, he’s still held his first 285 righties this season to a .145 ISO and 23.1% of fly balls.
Luzardo has given up a 6.2% barrel percentage to righties, yet has also allowed a .378 BABIP. That number should start to trickle down if he continues to limit the barrel percentage.
The Pick
Take Torrens to hit under 1.5 total bases tonight.
MLB Pick: Luis Torrens Under 1.5 Total Bases (-180) at Caesars Sportsbook
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
