With a full slate of games on the horizon tonight, I’ve added three plays using our AI Model for tonight’s MLB action.
Let’s earn some profit at the top-rated sportsbooks to start the weekend! And don’t forget to check out our YouTube channel for more betting advice.
Picks Summary:
- Fernando Tatis Under .5 Singles (+116)
- Oswald Peraza Under .5 Hits (-103)
- Royce Lewis Under .5 Hits (+120)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres
Friday, May 30, 2025 – 09:40 PM EDT at Petco Park
The AI Model expects Fernando Tatis to add only .604 singles in tonight’s contest. However, his line is currently at .5, with the under juiced to +116. There’s value on the Under since it’s at +116.
Fernando Tatis Could Have a Hard Time
Fernando Tatis has had success against right-handed pitching this season. He’s recorded a .195 ISO and wOBA of .324 with 18.8% of strikeouts and 8.2% of walks against righties over the last 30 days.
However, he’s in line to face Mitch Keller of the Pittsburgh Pirates. While Keller has struggled against lefties, he’s held his last 64 righties to a .066 ISO and wOBA of .265. Keller has also induced 50% of ground balls against righties in the previous month and has produced nearly 27% of strikeouts against righties.
This won’t be an easy matchup for Tatis. After all, Tatis has a .246 BABIP against righties in the last 30 days and has hit more than 62% of ground balls against righties in the previous month. Tatis has also hit just 18% of fly balls and below 15% of line drives against righties. That doesn’t bode well for Tatis with a matchup against Keller tonight.
The Pick
Consider fading Tatis tonight. He might not strike out, but he’s not hitting the ball with the barrel and keeps putting the ball on the ground. It’ll be hard to add a single doing that.
MLB Pick: Fernando Tatis Under .5 Singles (+116) at Caesars Sportsbook
New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Friday, May 30, 2025 – 10:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
The AI Model believes Oswald Peraza will add only .278 total bases tonight for the Yankees. Meanwhile, his prop is at .5, with the Under at -103. There’s plenty of value fading Peraza tonight.
Tony Gonsolin Is Shutting Down Righties!
The New York Yankees will battle Tony Gonsolin of the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight. Gonsolin is a right-handed thrower who has held his first 47 righties to a .140 ISO and wOBA of .281. He’s also added 42.6% of strikeouts against righties in that time and has limited walks to 8.5%.
So far, righties haven’t figured out Gonsolin. That said, Oswald Peraza, New York’s utility infielder, has hit a .300 wOBA against righties over the last month. He’s also hit 45.8% of ground balls, 20.8% of fly balls and has a .136 BABIP against righties over the same time period.
Peraza has shown off a little power against righties over the last month, but against Gonsolin, it doesn’t look promising.
The Pick
I’m on Peraza to add Under .5 hits using our AI Model. This play looks great analytically.
MLB Pick: Oswald Peraza Under .5 Hits (-103) at Caesars Sportsbook
Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners
Friday, May 30, 2025 – 10:10 PM EDT at T-Mobile Park
Our AI Model predicts Royce Lewis will earn .479 hits in tonight’s game against the Mariners. Yet, his hit line is Under .5 at +120. We love our plus-money fades! Here’s another one to consider.
Royce Lewis Looks Lost!
Royce Lewis has smashed a .100 ISO and wOBa of .194 against his last 54 righties. He’s struck out only 11.1% of the time, but he’s only added 15.9% of line drives. That’s why his BABIP is stuck at .140 over the last 30 days against righties.
Meanwhile, he’ll battle Bryan Woo of the Mariners. Woo has held his last 73 righties to a .068 ISO and wOBA of .234. He’s struck out nearly 25% of righties and has walked none in the previous 30 days. He’s also limited righties to 18.2% of fly balls and has added more than 47% of ground balls against righties.
Lewis will likely come around eventually. But it more than likely won’t happen against Woo, who has been one of the most consistent pitchers in the MLB this year.
The Pick
Let’s take Lewis to go Under .5 hits tonight.
MLB Pick: Royce Lewis Under .5 Hits (+120) at Caesars Sportsbook
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
