Baseball is America’s national pastime, so what better way to celebrate Independence Day than a trip to the diamond?
It’s a busy July 4 schedule this Tuesday; the computers at OddsTrader have cranked out their MLB projections, and we’ve got three games in particular that you might want to put in your baseball picks.
Picks Summary
- Diamondbacks +1.5 (-175) at Bet365
- Orioles-Yankees Under 9 (-120) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Angels-Padres Under 7.5 (-120) at Bet365
New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Tuesday, July 4, 2023 – 04:10 PM EDT at Chase Field
Our list begins as usual with the best value on the MLB odds board. The Diamondbacks (50-35, plus-13.68 betting units at press time) aren’t just your classic small-market team – they’re also first in the National League West as we approach the All-Star break, and they’re doing it with above-average play in all facets of the game.
Conversely, you have the Mets (38-46, minus-16.70 units), who are mired in fourth place in the NL East with a combination of mediocre hitting and awful pitching. While the OT computers still have New York winning this contest six runs to 5.6, that’s plenty for Arizona to beat the Mets on the run line.
The Starters
There’s only a 9.5-run total attached to this game, but we’re not going with the Over in this matchup; it’s very likely the computers have gotten tripped up by Arizona starter Zach Davies, who brings a 4.90 xFIP to the mound alongside his 6.54 ERA.
Kodai Senga (3.53 ERA, 4.00 xFIP) also hasn’t pitched quite as well for the Mets as his ERA would suggest. Senga has arguably been New York’s best starter this year, but they’re still just 8-7 behind the three-time Japanese All-Star, dropping 1.49 betting units along the way.
That’s due in part to the No. 29-ranked bullpen on the WAR charts at FanGraphs. Senga allowed three earned runs or fewer in five of those losses for New York, including each of his last two starts; many of the firemen who would normally protect Senga are on the long-term injured list, prompting the Mets to acquire RHP Trevor Gott (3.98 xFIP) from the Seattle Mariners on Monday.
There’s a chance Gott will be ready to throw for New York in time for Tuesday’s contest, but it’s not nearly enough to stop us – or the computers – from recommending the Snakes on the run line.
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-175) at Bet365
Los Angeles Angels vs. San Diego Padres
Tuesday, July 4, 2023 – 06:40 PM EDT at Petco Park
It should be a warm July 4 in both New York and San Diego, but the weather conditions should be more favorable towards the Under in this night game, with 10-mph winds blowing down the third-base line to help us out.
Petco Park is also famously biased towards pitchers. Baseball Savant ranks this venue at No. 28 overall (not including Mexico City and London) with a park factor of 86 for runs, compared to 92 (No. 24 overall) for Yankee Stadium this year.
We’ve also got a strong pitching matchup between Shohei Ohtani (3.40 xFIP) for L.A. and Joe Musgrove (4.01 xFIP) for San Diego. The OT computers say the Angels will win this battle 3.8 runs to three, so keep that in mind for your Under bet.
MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-120) at Bet365
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees
Tuesday, July 4, 2023 – 01:05 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium
The second of our two MLB totals for Tuesday takes us to the Bronx, where the Yankees have the Under at 9-2-1 since Aaron Judge (1.078 OPS) and his injured toe were taken out of the lineup. That includes a 4-1-1 mark following the return of Harrison Bader (.731 OPS) to the outfield, so something else must be at play besides the absence of Judge’s bat.
It might be the relievers. As a group, the Yankees’ pitching staff only ranks No. 19 on the FanGraphs WAR charts, but they improve to fifth when you focus on their bullpen. And as fate would have it, New York sends one of their more promising starters to the hill this Tuesday in Clarke Schmidt (4.40 xFIP), who has the Under at 11-5-1 for the Bombers in his sophomore campaign.
The Orioles (Over 23-13-2 away) aren’t exactly the team we want to see in the other dugout. Nevertheless, the OT computers have Baltimore losing this matchup 4.7 runs to 3.8, as Kyle Gibson (4.48 xFIP) prepares to twirl for the visitors. Gibson has the Under at 9-6-2 thus far, highlighted by a 3-1 win over Schmidt and the Yankees (Under 8.5) on May 25 at this same venue. Bet accordingly – the computers have spoken.
MLB Pick: Under 9 (-120) at Caesars Sportsbook
