There are some new matchups to look forward to in the MLB tonight! With nine games on the slate, I asked the AI Model for its best three value bets. Here’s what it came up with.
Let’s check out the latest odds from top-rated sportsbooks before you lock in your picks.
The Picks
- Willson Contreras Under .5 Hits (+180)
- Marcelo Mayer Under .5 Hits (+130)
- Bryce Johnson Under .5 Hits (+120)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Monday, June 23, 2025 – 07:45 PM EDT at Busch Stadium
Our AI Model believes Willson Contreras will add .638 hits in tonight’s game. However, while his hit prop is at .5, the under is up to +180. There’s plenty of value in fading Contreras tonight.
It’s Hard To Hit Ben Brown!
The Chicago Cubs will send Ben Brown to the mound tonight. The right-hander has limited his last 68 righties to a .141 ISO and wOBA of .301. He’s barely fallen behind and has walked only 4.4% of righties in the previous month as a result.
Brown has also limited righties to 22% of fly balls and 20% of line drives, while inducing 46% of ground balls against righties. He’s been electric, despite only adding 20.6% of strikeouts against righties during that time.
Brown will battle Willson Contreras, who has had some really good at-bats against righties. However, despite the good at-bats, he’s only earned a .250 BABIP.
Don’t expect things to change significantly against Brown, who has consistently been excellent against righties over the last 30 days.
Brown has given up only a 6% barrel percentage and has still allowed a .306 BABIP. That number should drop if he continues to pitch as well as he has.
That’s not good news for Willson Contreras. Let’s back Willson Contreras to add below .5 hits tonight.
MLB Pick: Willson Contreras Under .5 Hits (+180) at Caesars Sportsbook
Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels
Monday, June 23, 2025 – 09:38 PM EDT at Angel Stadium
The AI Model thinks Marcelo Mayer will earn .498 hits in tonight’s game for the Red Sox. Yet, his prop is currently at .5 hits, with the under at +130. Here’s another plus-money bet to get excited about!
Is Marcelo Mayer Getting Lucky?
The Red Sox’s young third baseman, Marcelo Mayer, has hit a .268 ISO and wOBA of .330 against his last 63 righties. However, he’s also struck out 27% of the time and has hit 55% of ground balls with only 12.5% of line drives.
With that, he’s had a .222 BABIP, which makes complete sense with his high ground ball rate.
He’ll battle Jack Kochanowicz of the Angels, who has allowed a .262 ISO and wOBA of .375 to his last 71 lefties. That said, Kochanowicz has allowed only 16.3% of line drives and has earned 51% of ground balls.
This sounds like the perfect matchup for Kochanowicz. Grab the Under .5 for Marcelo Mayer.
MLB Pick: Marcelo Mayer Under .5 Hits (+130) at Caesars Sportsbook
Washington Nationals vs. San Diego Padres
Monday, June 23, 2025 – 09:40 PM EDT at Petco Park
Our AI Model predicts Bryce Johnson will add .434 hits. Meanwhile, like the other bets, his prop is set at .5 with the under at +120. These underdog hit props have been money lately. Consider this one, too!
Bryce Johnson Won’t Keep Up His Hot Start!
Bryce Johnson has faced 42 lefties dating back to last season. However, against those 42 lefties, Johnson has combined to hit a .059 ISO and wOBA of .249.
He’ll face Mitchell Parker tonight. Ultimately, Parker is a lefty who has struggled against righties. However, he’s still added nearly 12% of swinging strikes against righties.
On the other hand, Johnson has hit 67.7% of ground balls with only 12.9% of fly balls and a 0% barrel percentage since last year against lefties.
It’s hard to rely on those kinds of numbers. Consider Johnson’s under .5 hits tonight.
MLB Pick: Bryce Johnson Under .5 Hits (+120) at Caesars Sportsbook
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-GAMBLER
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
