The MLB is back from its All-Star break with 15 games on the slate today. I reviewed all the games tonight and added three top player props using our AI Model for assistance. Let’s start the weekend with a bang.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Friday, July 18, 2025 – 9:40 PM EDT at Chase Field
The AI Model thinks Alec Burleson will contribute 1.042 total bases in tonight’s game against the Diamondbacks. However, his prop is stuck at 1.5, with the under at -115. There’s good reason to fade Burleson tonight.
Brandon Pfaadt Doesn’t Make It Easy
Alec Burleson has easily been the hottest hitter on the Cardinals against righties. He’s hit a .339 ISO and wOBA of .453 with only 10.4% of strikeouts against righties in the last 30 days.
However, he’s hit just 23.5% of line drives and has earned just a .319 BABIP. That’s nothing to get excited about. He’s had some good contact, but it hasn’t resulted in better results.
On the other hand, he’ll battle Brandon Pfaadt of the Diamondbacks. Pfaadt has limited his last 48 lefties to a .254 wOBA and has allowed only 16.7% of line drives to lefties over the last month.
We can all admit that Pfaadt wasn’t pitching well to begin the season. But he’s turned it around and looks a lot better.
I’m on Burleson to add under 1.5 total bases tonight.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Friday, July 18, 2025 – 10:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
Our AI Model suggests Mookie Betts will earn .336 runs tonight. However, his run total is at .5, with the under at -130. There’s value in Betts to go under in the runs category.
The Struggles Continue For Betts
Mookie Betts didn’t even make the All-Star Game this year. Instead, he’s hit a .063 ISO and wOBA of .190 against his last 67 righties as a right-handed batter.
Tonight, he’ll battle Quinn Preister of the Milwaukee Brewers. Priester hasn’t been perfect against righties over the last month. However, he’s faced 203 righties this season and has earned more than 61% of ground balls against righties.
Priester has also limited righties to 20.3% of fly balls and 15% of line drives. He’s not going to add a super high amount of strikeouts, especially against Betts. But he’ll likely get some weak contact to keep Betts off the bases.
Grab Mookie Betts to add below .5 runs tonight. Our AI Model knows!
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners
Friday, July 18, 2025 – 10:10 PM EDT at T-Mobile Park
Our AI Model predicts Jose Altuve will earn .514 singles tonight. That said, his singles prop is at .5, but the under is juiced to +110 MLB odds. The plus-money value gives us a 12.2% expected value bet. We’ll take that any time!
Altuve Won’t Have It Easy
Jose Altuve will likely battle Luis Castillo of the Mariners tonight. While Altuve has hit a .362 ISO and wOBA of .491 against his last 69 righties, he’s set to face a red-hot Luis Castillo.
Castillo has held his last 56 righties to a .075 ISO and wOBA of .193. He’s struck out nearly 27% of right-handed batters over the last month and has added more than 47% of ground balls.
As we know from the past, good pitching usually beats good hitting. Altuve has been great against righties, but Castillo has been even better against righties. Castillo has even added more than 14% of swinging strikes and more than 27% of whiffs, while limiting line drives to 18.4%.
Let’s take Altuve to add below .5 singles tonight.
The Prop Picks
These three props —Alec Burleson under 1.5 total bases, Mookie Betts under 0.5 runs, and Jose Altuve under 0.5 singles— have solid value based on our AI Model’s projections and current market prices.
If you’re tailing these plays, head over to Caesars Sportsbook to lock in the best available odds before the lines move. And if you want more daily picks like these, stay tuned for sharp insights all season long.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
