The AI Model has been great to start the second half of the MLB season. Let’s see if it can continue its hot start with three more player props for today’s slate of games. Let’s dive into the best picks for today!
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners
Sunday, July 20, 2025 – 4:10 PM EDT at T-Mobile Park
The AI Model thinks Randy Arozarena will earn 1.218 total bases today for the Mariners. Currently, his total bases prop is at .5, with the Over at -140. We don’t always see over bets for total bases with the AI Model. But this one is too good to pass up.
Randy Arozarena Is Red-Hot
The Mariners are set to take on Hunter Brown of the Astros. He’s never easy to hit. However, Brown has only struck out 22.6% of his last 53 righties. He’s allowing balls to get put into play by righties a lot more in the previous 30 days.
Meanwhile, Randy Arozarena of the Mariners has hit a .372 ISO and wOBA of .436 against his last 87 righties. He usually doesn’t want to walk and stays aggressive at the plate. Plus, he’s hit nearly 70% of hard contact with a 19.6% barrel percentage against righties over the last month.
Meanwhile, we’re only asking for one base hit from Arozarena. He’ll have a few matchups against Brown but should also get a look at a bullpen pitcher as well today.
Randy Arozarena Prop Pick
I’m comfortable with riding Arozarena to add at least one total base in today’s game against the Astros.
MLB Prop: Randy Arozarena Over 0.5 Total Bases
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Sunday, July 20, 2025 – 4:10 PM EDT at Chase Field
Our AI Model suggests Merrill Kelly will allow 4.449 hits in today’s game against the St. Louis Cardinals. However, his prop is stuck at 5.5, with the under at -140. Kelly is expected to have a better game, according to our AI Model.
The Cardinals Are Struggling
The Diamondbacks will send out Merrill Kelly for today’s game against the Cardinals. While Kelly hasn’t been perfect, he’s been able to limit his last 116 batters to a .302 wOBA. In addition, Kelly has limited his previous 116 batters to 21.8% of line drives, and he’s only walked 9.5% of batters in the last month.
Meanwhile, he’ll take on a Cardinals projected lineup that has hit a .132 ISO and wOBA of .295 over the last month against righties. Only Brendan Donovan and Alec Burleson have good numbers against righties. The other seven haven’t consistently contributed over the previous month.
Merrill Kelly Prop Pick
Let’s take Kelly under 5.5 hits allowed at Caesars Sportsbook.
MLB Prop: Merrill Kelly Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-140)
Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers
Sunday, July 20, 2025 – 7:10 PM EDT at Globe Life Field
Our AI Model predicts Wenceel Perez will record .528 hits. Yet, his prop is at .5, with the under at +140. That’s a good plus-money prop to consider for tonight’s ESPN Game of the Week.
What About The Barrel
Wenceel Perez will likely bat 6th for the Tigers tonight. He’s a switch-hitter who will bat from the right side against lefty Jacob Latz.
Perez has been great, hitting a .357 ISO and wOBA of .486 in 16 at-bats. However, he’s shown weak contact, with a 0% barrel percentage and only 25% of fly balls. The 16 at-bats are a short sample size. It’s more likely he’ll see regression moving forward.
Especially since he’ll battle Jacob Latz of the Rangers, who has held his last 42 righties to a .026 ISO and wOBA of .185. Latz has earned close to 36% of strikeouts when facing righties over the last 30 days.
Wenceel Perez Prop Pick
Fade Perez and take his under in the hits category at +140.
MLB Prop: Wenceel Perez Under .5 Hits (+140)
Our Top MLB Player Props
Backed by recent trends and AI projections, Sunday’s MLB slate offers value on three player props: Arozarena Over total bases, Kelly Under hits, and Perez Under hits. Track the lines throughout the day, and lock in value before prices shift.
Good luck with your bets, and check back tomorrow for more AI-powered MLB picks!
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