We’ve got a full 15-game slate to look at today in the MLB! Today, we’re targeting plus-money plays using the AI Model. Thankfully, I’ve found some good value plays and shared them below.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Saturday, July 19, 2025 – 7:05 PM EDT at George M. Steinbrenner Field
Our AI Model thinks the Orioles will earn a 4.2-3.5 win over the Rays tonight. However, the Orioles are listed as +106 on the moneyline and are underdogs. There’s tremendous value in the Orioles!
Kremer Must Throw Strikes
The Tampa Bay Rays are super aggressive. The lineup has walked just 4.5% of the time against righties over the last 30 days. But that’s a good thing for Dean Kremer, pitcher of the Orioles.
Kremer has struck out 24.5% of batters and has walked only 4.3% of batters over the last 30 days. He throws strikes and can limit damage, as he’s holding a .136 ISO and wOBA of .262 during the previous 30 days.
Kremer will compete against Zack Littell, who has fewer strikeouts. He’s also allowed 30.8% of fly balls over the last month and has given up close to 25% of line drives.
The Orioles should work the count more and get on base with walks and better at-bats. Additionally, Littell has earned a .238 BABIP over the last month, despite giving up a 9.2% barrel percentage. He’s also added just 11.1% of swinging strikes and has allowed 50.8% of hard contact over the last 30 days.
The AI Model likes the Orioles moneyline at +106 MLB odds, and I agree. Go O’s!
Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers
Saturday, July 19, 2025 – 7:05 PM EDT at Globe Life Field
The AI Model suggests the Tigers will add a 5.0-3.7 win over the Rangers tonight. While you can consider the Tigers at -105 on the moneyline, the bigger value play is the Tigers at -1.5 (+164). They’re projected to win by 1.3 runs using the AI Model!
Keider Montero Deserves Credit
The Detroit Tigers will send out Keider Montero for tonight’s game against the Rangers. The right-hander isn’t going to surprise with high strikeouts. But he has limited his last 55 batters to a .290 wOBA with 51.2% of ground balls.
Meanwhile, he’ll take on a Rangers lineup that has just a .318 wOBA against righties over the last month. There are numerous inconsistencies with this Texas lineup.
On the flip side, Kumar Rocker will take the hill for the Rangers. He’s allowed a .247 ISO and wOBA of .345 against his last 89 batters. Detroit has five hitters who have smashed a .167 ISO or better. They’re more balanced overall.
Let’s back the Tigers at -1.5 (+164) at Caesars Sportsbook!
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Saturday, July 19, 2025 – 7:15 PM ET at Chase Field
The AI Model believes the Diamondbacks will add a 6.2-3.3 win over the Cardinals. However, the Diamondbacks are +106 on the moneyline at home tonight. That’s another big-time value play. You can also consider taking the Diamondbacks at -1.5 for greater odds.
Sonny Gray Has Been Great, But…
The St. Louis Cardinals will send out Sonny Gray tonight. The right-hander has struck out more than 31% of batters and has allowed just a .059 ISO and wOBA of .214 over the last month. In addition, he’s added more than 54% of ground balls during that time and has allowed only 17.6% of fly balls.
However, he’s only averaged 70.4 pitches per start over the last month. He might pitch well, but the Cardinals might have to tap into their bullpen early.
Meanwhile, Ryne Nelson will get the start for the Diamondbacks. He’s dominated lefties, holding them to a .087 ISO and wOBA of .194 over the last month. Plus, St. Louis has hit just a .158 ISO against righties collectively over the previous month. That doesn’t move the needle.
We’re on the Diamondbacks moneyline at +106.
Final Verdict
With 15 games on tap, the AI Model highlights three underdog value plays that stand out: Orioles ML (+106), Tigers -1.5 (+164), and Diamondbacks ML (+106). Each comes with favorable matchup data and line value. Lock in these picks now before the odds shift, and check back for more edges throughout the weekend.
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
