There are plenty of games in the MLB today! Let’s attack the slate with some underdog plays. Using the AI Model, I identified three bets that offer significant value at the top-rated sportsbooks.
Take a look below!
Picks Summary:
- Rob Refsnyder Under .5 Hits (+115)
- Angel Martinez Under .5 Hits (+160)
- Andrew Knizner Under .5 Hits (+105)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox
Saturday, June 14, 2025 – 07:15 PM EDT at Fenway Park
The AI Model believes Rob Refsnyder will add .525 hits in tonight’s game against the Yankees. However, he’s only smacked at least one hit in two of his last 14 games. It’s why this is a +12.6% expected value play.
Can Carlos Rodon Overcome a Red-Hot Refsnyder?
The Red Sox have many elite players in their starting lineup. However, it’s Rob Refsnyder who is batting third in the lineup against lefties. The right-handed slugger has earned a .292 ISO and wOBA of .428 against his last 33 lefties. However, he’s also struck out more than 30% of the time against lefties over the previous month.
Meanwhile, Carlos Rodon will take the mound for the Yankees. He’s already held his last 97 righties to a .100 ISO and wOBA of .215. Rodon has also struck out righties 32% of the time. So there’s a good chance Rodon will add many strikeouts tonight, including a couple against Refsnyder.
Refsnyder can’t have a big day if he can’t connect against Rodon. Plus, righties have hit a .211 BABIP against Rodon over the last month. Things don’t look great for Refsnyder.
The Pick
Let’s add to the underdog portfolio with Refsnyder to go under .5 hits.
MLB Pick: Rob Refsnyder Under .5 Hits (+115) at Caesars Sportsbook
Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle Mariners
Saturday, June 14, 2025 – 09:40 PM EDT at T-Mobile Park
The AI Model thinks Angel Martinez will record .667 hits. Yet, his under .5 hits is currently at +160. There’s a lot of value with the odds at +160!
It’s Not Angel Martinez’s Month?
Angel Martinez has smacked a .143 ISO and wOBA of .200 against his last 56 righties. He’s also struck out 23.2% of the time and hasn’t walked once during that stretch. He’s also got a .171 BABIP and has hit just 16.3% of line drives.
Instead, he’s added 44.2% of ground balls and a 2.3% barrel percentage. That’s not going to keep him in the lineup moving forward.
That said, he’ll battle George Kirby of the Mariners, who was absolutely electric in his latest start. He’s now struck out 28.4% of batters since returning from the injured list and has limited his last 48 lefties to 19.4% of fly balls. He’s also induced 50% of ground balls and has added only 6.2% of walks.
Kirby was unlucky with balls in play to begin the year, especially against lefties. But Martinez hasn’t added solid contact all month against righties.
The Pick
Side with the AI Model and take Martinez to add under .5 hits at +160 odds. Kirby looks terrific right now.
MLB Pick: Angel Martinez Under .5 Hits (+160) at Caesars Sportsbook
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Saturday, June 14, 2025 – 10:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
The AI Model likes Andrew Knizner to record just .363 hits tonight for the Giants. The backup catcher has a line of .5, with the under at +105. It’s never a bad idea to fade the backup catcher!
Clayton Kershaw Will Improve!
The Los Angeles Dodgers will send out veteran lefty Clayton Kershaw tonight. He’s struggled since returning to the mound from his injury. However, he has still managed to hold his first 65 right-handed batters to 43.5% of ground balls and 21.7% of fly balls. He’s also allowed just a 6.5% barrel percentage and has still given up a .333 BABIP. That number should decrease if he continues to post these other numbers.
That said, he’ll take on Andrew Knizner of the Giants. The backup catcher hasn’t had much success since getting on the Giants’ roster. He’s got a .000 ISO and wOBA of .000 against his first four lefties over the last month.
He was always a backup catcher. Backup catchers are known for defense, not offense.
The Pick
Fade Knizner and take his under at +105.
MLB Pick: Andrew Knizner Under .5 Hits (+105) at Caesars Sportsbook
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
