We’re looking for some underdog plays for today’s MLB slate. While our AI Model isn’t predicting many upsets, there are still plenty of player props that have value at plus-money that we can attack at the top-rated sportsbooks.Â
Check out the best underdog plays for tonight’s slate in the MLB below.
Picks Summary:
- Gabriel Arias Under .5 Hits (+145)
- Landon Knack Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (+104)
- Luis Garcia Under .5 Singles (+120)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians
Saturday, May 31, 2025 – 04:10 PM EDT at Progressive Field
The AI Model suggests Gabriel Arias will add .529 hits in tonight’s game for the Guardians. Meanwhile, his prop is currently at .5, with the under at +145. There’s some insane value on Arias not to get a hit.
Gabriel Arias Might Get Benched Soon!
The Guardians have to be getting fed up with Gabriel Arias. The right-handed infielder has hit a .047 ISO and wOBA of .271 against his last 74 righties. He’s also struck out 24.3% of the time and has hit 50% of ground balls with only 20.8% of line drives against righties in the last month.
He’s set to take on Kyle Hendricks, a veteran righty, who hasn’t performed very well at all this season. However, I’ll trust the veteran righty against any batter who is hitting as weak as Arias is.
Hendricks has at least limited line drives to 22.9% and rarely walks hitters. As long as he stays ahead in the count against Arias, Hendricks should be able to keep Arias away from earning a hit.
The Pick
I’ll side with the AI Model and take Gabriel Arias to add no hits in tonight’s game at +145.
MLB Pick: Gabriel Arias Under .5 Hits (+145) at Caesars Sportsbook
New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Saturday, May 31, 2025 – 07:15 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
The AI Model thinks Landon Knack will give up only 3.941 hits in tonight’s game for the Dodgers. However, his prop is currently at 4.5, with the Under at +104. There’s value with Knack’s Under in hits allowed.
Can Landon Knack Pitch Around Trouble?
The Dodgers will ride Landon Knack tonight. The right-hander has allowed a .241 ISO and wOBA of .342 to his last 88 batters. However, he’s limited lefties to a .093 ISO and wOBA of .232. He’ll likely face more lefties than righties in the Yankees’ lineup tonight.
The top of the New York order has produced. However, the bottom four batters in the Yankees’ lineup have hit a .302 wOBA or worse over the last 30 days against righties. Plus, the Yankees have struck out more than 22% of the time with the projected lineup. There are six batters in the lineup with strikeout rates of at least 22.7% against righties in the last month.
The Pick
Let’s trust Knack tonight and take his Under 4.5 hits allowed at +104.
MLB Pick: Landon Knack Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (+104) at Caesars Sportsbook
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Saturday, May 31, 2025 – 10:10 PM EDT at Chase Field
The AI Model believes Luis GarcÃa will earn .469 singles tonight for the Nationals. Yet, his prop is at .5, with the Under at +120. Here’s another plus-money underdog prop to consider for tonight’s slate.
Luis Garcia Is About To Cool Down!
The Nationals are getting some insane production out of Luis GarcÃa. The Washington infielder has hit a .239 ISO and wOBA of .368 with only 16.7% of strikeouts against righties over the last month. However, he’s facing Brandon Pfaadt, who has delivered against lefties over the last month. He has struggled with righties as a right-handed pitcher, but he’s held his last 65 lefties to a .150 ISO and wOBA of .273.
Pfaadt isn’t falling behind counts against lefties and has allowed a .217 BABIP to lefties over the last month. I’d expect Pfaadt to help cool down a red-hot Garcia tonight.
The Pick
Let’s take Garcia to hit under .5 singles tonight at +120.
MLB Pick: Luis Garcia Under .5 Singles (+120) at Caesars Sportsbook
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
