NBA Pick: Pacers ML (-110) at FanDuel
One of the NBA’s biggest stars is facing a suspension on Monday night, and that’s one of the two plays among the eight matchups we have using the OddsTrader algorithm picks to find the biggest edge.
Let’s get into it!
- Dallas Mavericks vs. Indiana Pacers: Pacers ML (-110)
- Milwaukee Bucks vs. Detroit Pistons: Pistons +16.5 (-110)
Monday, March 27, 2023 – 07:00 PM EDT at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Could the Dallas Mavericks actually miss the Western Conference play-in tournament after acquiring Kyrie Irving to pair with Luka Doncic? The short answer is: yes, absolutely. The Mavericks enter having lost four straight to fall outside the West Top 10. Losses to Memphis and Golden State one understands, but back-to-back defeats to tanking Charlotte? That’s not acceptable.
Doncic had 40 points, 12 rebounds and eight assists in Sunday’s 110-104 loss, and the Mavs were outscored by 11 with him on the court. To make matter worse, he got a technical foul in the third quarter for arguing a call because that’s all Luka does is whine.
It was his 16th tech of the season, meaning a suspension for this game barring the unlikelihood of it being rescinded. Crew Chief Kevin Scott said in a pool report after the game that Doncic used “a profanity directed at the officials in protest to a no-call that was correctly judged in a postgame video review.”
Where’s the Joy?
Doncic recently acknowledged that he is struggling to find joy on the court: “I think you can see it with me on the court. Sometimes I don’t feel it’s me. I’m just being out there. I used to have really fun, smiling on court, but it’s just been so frustrating for a lot of reasons, not just basketball.”
Dallas is just 7-13 since trading for Kyrie Irving and 3-8 when he and Doncic play together. Luka is averaging 33.1 points (second in the NBA), 8.7 rebounds and 8.2 assists. Doncic is averaging 25.6 points, 8.6 rebounds and 8.6 assists in seven career games against the Pacers.
The Mavericks are the second-worst ATS team (28-44-3) in the NBA. At home, Indiana is 21-15 ATS. The Pacers are listing All-Star guard Tyrese Haliburton and center Myles Turner, a Dallas native, as questionable. Haliburton leads the NBA this season in assists with an average of 10.3 per game and ranks second in points/assists double-doubles with 32.
On Feb. 28 when Indiana won 124-122 at Dallas, Haliburton had 32 points and seven rebounds, while Turner had 24 points and seven boards. Needless to say, best to wait and see if those two play but the OddsTrader algorithm has Indiana by a point.
- Mavericks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 0 days rest.
- Mavericks are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
- Mavericks are 7-23-1 ATS in their last 31 games vs. a team with a losing straight-up record.
NBA Pick: Pacers ML (-110) at FanDuel
Monday, March 27, 2023 – 07:00 PM EDT at Little Caesars Arena
File this one under: No NBA team probably should be nearly a 17-point home underdog at the NBA odds board, even one like the Detroit Pistons that is in full tank mode. The Pistons have apparently shut down the likes of Bojan Bogdanovic, Alec Burks and Hamidou Diallo for the season. Detroit has lost five in a row and Coach Dwane Casey won’t be back next season.
The Pistons do still have some younger players going 100 percent each night. Rookie Jaden Ivey had 20 points and eight assists last time out and became the fourth Pistons rookie ever with 1,000 points, 300 assists and 250 rebounds in a season and the only one this year. James Wiseman has been rejuvenated since being traded from Golden State, averaging 13.3 points and 9.0 rebounds in 15 games with Detroit. Marvin Bagley III also looks good.
Detroit is 1-16 against Milwaukee over the last four seasons (since 2018-19), including a 12-game losing streak from Dec. 5 2018-Nov. 24-2021, so it could be easy for the Bucks to be in a bit of a letdown mode after they were routed in Denver on Saturday in a potential NBA Finals preview.
Giannis Antetokounmpo (right knee soreness) is probable for Monday’s game and the Bucks would like to get him out of there as quickly as possible. In Saturday’s game against the Nuggets, Giannis tallied his 37th 30-point game of the season, scoring 31 points. His 37 30-point games this season now match the 37 he had in 2019-20 for the most 30-point games in a season in his career.
The Bucks continue to lead the NBA in scoring this month, averaging a league-high 124.9 points per game. Milwaukee may jump way out early but the Pistons will backdoor cover this when the Bucks take their foot off the gas.
- Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
- Over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Detroit.
NBA Pick: Pistons +16.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook