The Indiana Pacers came through in Game 3 and now lead the NBA Finals, 2-1, with another home game tonight.
The Pacers have been incredibly gritty throughout the postseason and continue to defy the odds. Now they’re just two wins away from winning the NBA Finals.
That said, if the Thunder can steal Game 4, they’d tie up the series and re-take home-court advantage. This series is far from over. So let’s give it a closer look before heading to our top-rated sportsbooks.
Picks Summary:
- Pacers +6.5 (-115)
- Under 227 (-112)
- Cason Wallace Over 10.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-130)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Friday, June 13, 2025 – 08:30 PM EDT at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
While our AI Model thinks the Oklahoma City Thunder will escape with a 113-111 win against the Indiana Pacers, it still believes the Pacers will cover the +6.5-point spread.
Additionally, the model believes there will be 224 points. Yet, the total is currently at 227 with the Under at -112. The Under is another very solid play tonight.
Finally, the AI Model thinks Cason Wallace will add 11.73 points + rebounds + assists. Yet, his prop is at 10.5, with the Over at -112. That’s one of the most valuable player props for tonight.
The Pacers Are Gritty!
The Indiana Pacers used another fourth-quarter comeback to add their second win of the NBA Finals.
The Pacers have earned quite a few fourth-quarter comebacks this season. They’re a team that isn’t known for its defense. However, they stepped up in the fourth quarter in Game 3, holding the Thunder to only 18 points in the win. Additionally, the Pacers shot nearly 52% from the floor and still won, despite making fewer free throws and three-pointers.
Indiana played exactly how the Thunder want to play. The Pacers didn’t turn the ball over nearly as much. In addition, the Pacers added seven more blocks along with seven more steals at home. All the data loves the Thunder from the entire season. However, the Pacers have consistently proven just how good they are every day.
At +6.5, you can’t go wrong with the Pacers at home.
The Thunder Will Need To Defend Better!
There’s going to be some urgency from the Thunder in Game 4. Oklahoma City really won’t want to be down 3-1 in the NBA Finals. That would mean, even with a win in Game 5 at home, they’d be on the brink of losing the NBA Finals in Indiana in Game 6.
The Thunder are still the best defense in the NBA. They’ve held postseason opponents to 107.1 points per 100 possessions and have given up an effective field goal percentage of just 51.2%.
In addition, the Thunder have gained 18.1% of turnovers and typically win the turnover battle with ease. That’s not how Game 3 worked out, but statistically, it’s likely the Thunder will add more turnovers in Game 4 with some adjustments. Oklahoma City needs to get back to its brand of basketball.
The Pacers will make it difficult, but the best way to win this game is by slowing down their offense and limiting possessions. That would help the Under.
Cason Wallace Is Making An Impact!
The Oklahoma City Thunder decided to go shorter in the postseason and threw Isaiah Hartenstein on the bench. This has allowed Cason Wallace to play with the best players on the Thunder.
Wallace added 12 points + rebounds + assists in Game 3 against the Pacers. In that game, his usage rate was 14.2%, the highest since mid-May. He’s only had one potential assist in each of his last three games, but he’s still had at least three rebound chances in four of his previous five games.
Over the last ten games, Wallace has also attempted more than six shots per game. He’s also shot at least 50% in two consecutive games leading into this one. Ultimately, Wallace hasn’t shot it well from three-point range, but he’s getting attempts and volume. That’s all you can ask for.
Therefore, consider taking Wallace to add at least 11 points + rebounds + assists in tonight’s Game 4 matchup against the Pacers. Remember, he can perform well, and the Pacers can still cover the spread.
NBA Picks:
- Pacers +6.5 (-115)
- Under 227 (-112)
- Cason Wallace Over 10.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-130)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
