We’re guaranteed two more games in the NBA Finals. However, whoever wins Game 5 has the chance to end it in Game 6 and hoist the NBA Championship trophy.
The Pacers earned Game 1, but the Thunder responded in Game 2. Then, the Pacers added Game 3, but the Thunder won Game 4.
Will that same pattern continue into Game 5, or will the Thunder finally take control and lead in this series?
The Picks
- Pacers +9.5 (-115)
- Under 225 (-110)
- Myles Turner Over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-128)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Monday, June 16, 2025 – 8:30 PM EDT at Paycom Center
Our AI Model expects the Thunder to win, 115-107. However, Indiana is a 9.5-point underdog and would still cover the spread in this scenario.
Additionally, the total remains at 225 points, whereas our AI Model expects only 222 points. The Under is another high-valued play tonight.
Meanwhile, if you’re looking for a player prop, consider Myles Turner to add at least 19.5 points + rebounds + assists. Our AI Model thinks he’ll add 22.02 PRA in tonight’s Game 5 showdown.
The Pacers Will Show Up When Everyone Counts Them Out
The Pacers have been in this situation before. Many analysts and media personnel have discussed how the Pacers needed to win Game 4 if they were going to win the series.
Many are counting the Pacers out completely despite the series being tied at 2.
However, the Pacers continue to defy the NBA odds and perform better than expected. The Pacers had a poor offensive performance in Game 4 and still managed to stay competitive until the end. The Pacers shot just 42.5% from the field and hit only 30.6% from downtown. They also lost the rebounding battle by ten and conceded two more points off turnovers than the Thunder.
At one point, the Pacers led by ten in that game. But they never trailed by more than seven in its entirety.
Indiana will always be able to get to the foul line. The offense has also shot a 57.7% effective field goal percentage. They can certainly improve their performance on the offensive side of the ball, even on the road. They showed that they could keep up with Oklahoma City in Game 1.
NBA Pick: Pacers +9.5 (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
Let’s Give Indiana’s Defense Some Credit, Too!
The Thunder are the league’s best defense. They’ve held teams to 107.2 points per 100 possessions and rank second in the NBA postseason in defensive effective field goal percentage.
The Pacers haven’t been nearly as consistent. However, the defense did its part in Game 4. The Thunder shot 47.4% from the field and hit only three threes in the entire game. The Thunder went 3-for-16 from downtown.
Indiana did a good job defending the perimeter and made the Thunder earn every basket. Of course, Oklahoma City got to the foul line at a high rate and delivered 89.5% from the free throw line in that game. But all of those points were still earned. The Pacers gave up nothing easy.
They’ll need to limit fouls better. But overall, the Pacers have done well defensively in this series. It’s helped them stick around. It’s why the Under is a top play tonight.
NBA Pick: Under 225 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Myles Turner Can Do Everything
In two consecutive games, Myles Turner has missed out on at least 20 points + rebounds + assists. That said, he’s hit this line in 73% of games this season and has averaged more than 29 minutes per game over the last ten.
Turner hasn’t been earning as many rebound chances over the last two games. However, in the previous ten games, he’s still added nearly six rebound chances and one assist chance per game.
In addition, he’s attempted more than nine shots per game and has hit nearly 51% from the field. He’s added more than four three-point attempts per game over the last ten games, too.
Against the Thunder in Game 4, Turner even found the foul line six times for the first time in the series.
He’s aggressive, long, physical, and a leader. He’ll need to step up for the Pacers to have success tonight.
NBA Pick: Myles Turner Over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-128) at Caesars Sportsbook
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
