The Indiana Pacers exposed some of the New York Knicks’ weaknesses in Games 1 and 2 in the Eastern Conference Finals. Ultimately, the Pacers stormed back in Game 1 and then out-hustled the Knicks in Game 2 to go up 2-0 in the Eastern Conference Finals on the road.
Now they’ll head home, where they can clutch an NBA Finals appearance in two games.
There have been reports that the Knicks are considering starting Mitchell Robinson over Josh Hart. While this is significant, Hart will still play many minutes and be a factor in this game. Robinson has been the X-factor in this series for the Knicks, especially on the glass. New York would love to start out the game stronger and get ahead early.
However, our AI Model suggests the Pacers will earn a 113-109 victory over the Knicks tonight. Since the Pacers are slight favorites, the best bet for this game is the Pacers at -2.
Meanwhile, Caesars has set the total at 223.5. Our Model expects just 222 points, so the Under is also the ideal play in this game using that scenario.
Finally, the AI Model likes Miles McBride to record 11.28 points + rebounds + assists. Yet, his prop is at 9.5, with the over at -122.
The Knicks haven’t used their bench very often in this series. But that could change tonight now that the Knicks need to adjust to stick around in this series. McBride would be one of the few bench players with more minutes if the Knicks make that adjustment.
The Picks
- Pacers -2 (-110)Â
- Under 223.5 (-110)Â
- Miles McBride Over 9.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-122)Â
Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
New York Knicks vs. Indiana Pacers
Sunday, May 25, 2025 – 8:00 PM EDT at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Is New York’s Offense Good Enough?
The New York Knicks have scored only 114 points per 100 possessions in the NBA Playoffs. This is an average number, and it’s ultimately because the Knicks have shot a 52% effective field goal percentage.Â
The Knicks dominate the offensive glass and get to the foul line rapidly. But they’ve shot poorly from the field throughout the playoffs and have turned the ball over nearly 14% of the time.
The Pacers will foul a lot and have allowed a 52.7% effective field goal percentage. They’re not an elite defense, especially since they’ve allowed 30.4% of offensive rebounds. But as long as the offense keeps at it, it won’t matter.
There’s No Stopping The Pacers
The Pacers have scored 121.2 points per 100 possessions in the playoffs. They’re easily the best offense in the Eastern Conference and have limited turnovers to 11.9%.
The Pacers haven’t dominated the offensive glass, but they’ve surely improved over the last two games against the Knicks.
Indiana has dropped a 59.3% effective field goal percentage in the postseason, which is also the best in the NBA. The Pacers aren’t the best at getting to the foul line, though, the Knicks have fouled at a high rate to begin with.
That said, the Knicks have to adjust to play better defensively. They’ll also want to limit turnovers and bad shots, or they’ll dig themselves a hole in this series.
It’ll be hard for the Knicks to win this game. But if they want to give themselves a chance, they’ll want to slow this game down and keep the Pacers away from fastbreak opportunities.
The Knicks Must Play Their Bench!
In consecutive games, the Knicks have run out of gas in the fourth quarter. It’s likely because the starters are playing too many minutes and just don’t have the energy that the Pacers have deep in the game.
Since the Knicks are toying with starting Mitchell Robinson, it’s clear New York is looking to make more adjustments to salvage this series.
Miles McBride has earned at least 12 points + rebounds + assists in three of his last four games. He’s also played more than 25 minutes in each game and could be used even more in Game 3.
The Pacers rank 26th in field goals attempted by point guards and rank 24th in field goal percentage by point guards. They’re also 17th in assists. McBride must be a factor for the Knicks to have any chance. He’ll get his minutes. Let’s take him to add at least 10 points + rebounds + assists.
NBA Pick: Pacers -2 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
NBA Pick: Under 223.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
NBA Pick: Miles McBride Over 9.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-122) at Caesars Sportsbook
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