The Kansas City Chiefs should rest a little easier this year now that the pressure of a historic Super Bowl three-peat is off the table. They had their chance, and it didn’t go well against the Eagles in Super Bowl 59. Still, most teams would kill to be in this team’s shoes as they eye a record-tying 8th-straight AFC Championship Game.
But there is a little doubt with the Chiefs after their latest Super Bowl blowout. Their Super Bowl LX odds are +800 at Bet365, trailing the Eagles (+650), Ravens (+650), and Bills (+650), who are in a 3-way tie right now.
Patrick Mahomes turns 30 in September, completing the best run of quarterback play for anyone in his 20s. But Travis Kelce is going to be 36 in October and this will likely be his last season. Defensive leader Chris Jones is also starting to get up there as he just turned 31.
The Chiefs continue to hold off the Bills and Ravens in the AFC, and they’ll face both teams in the first half of the 2025 regular season. They’ll also see the Eagles in a Super Bowl rematch in Week 2, so it’s a tough schedule, especially at the start as 7 of their first 10 games are against playoff teams from last year.
Eventually, there will be a season where the Chiefs don’t get to the AFC Championship Game with Mahomes, but does the streak end here? Let’s look at our favorite player props and NFL futures picks for the 2025 Chiefs. It’s still a dynasty until proven otherwise.
The Picks
- Patrick Mahomes Over 27.5 Passing Touchdowns (-110)
- Rashee Rice Over 950.5 Receiving Yards (-105)
- Xavier Worthy Over 825.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- 2025 Chiefs Over 11.5 Wins (+100)
- 2025 Chiefs to Win AFC West (-110)
- 2025 AFC Championship Winner – Kansas City Chiefs (+300)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
American Football Conference Odds
Patrick Mahomes
- Over/Under 27.5 Passing Touchdowns
There’s this chatter that Patrick Mahomes is on the decline as he enters his age-30 season, but that’s largely a pile of rubbish. There are flaws within the Kansas City offense that is hindering his ability to put up pretty stats like earlier in his career, but he’s still great enough to find different ways to win games, doing whatever it takes.
Last year, Mahomes played most of the season without his top 2 wide receivers (Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown) because of injuries. They started 4 different left tackles because of bad play and injuries. They had an injury to Isiah Pacheco at running back. So, you had Mahomes throwing to a 35-year-old tight end in Kelce who has lost a step, a washed-up version of DeAndre Hopkins they traded for at midseason, and a rookie in Xavier Worthy who had trouble keeping his feet in bounds on deep catches.
Then you had the least explosive running game with Kareem Hunt in the backfield. The musical chairs at tackle gave Mahomes some issues with hits and setting his feet to deliver more accurate passes down the field.
Incredibly, this team still won 15 games and another No. 1 seed. The offense played its best game of the season against Buffalo in the AFC Championship Game, which makes the beatdown in the Super Bowl against the Eagles all the more disappointing.
But late in that Super Bowl rout, Mahomes corked a deep touchdown pass to Worthy, about the only Chief who had a great game that night as he didn’t feel any pressure about a three-peat given his rookie status. That was one of the only 4 plays all year where Mahomes attacked the deep middle of the field to Worthy, who set a combined record with a 4.21 40-yard dash in 2024.
For the Chiefs’ sake, let’s hope that play sparks a renaissance in this offense in 2025 to utilize the speed and youth at wideout with Worthy and Rice, who are no longer rookies. Rice looked excellent last year before he tore his ACL, and it sounds like he won’t face punishment for his off-field issues with speeding in a car. He should be fully recovered for Week 1.
This is the season where the Chiefs need to move away from Kelce as the leading receiver and work on getting Rice and Worthy to over 1,000 yards each. Be more explosive while still taking the short passes and extending drives on 3rd down.
Mahomes’ line for touchdown passes is 27.5. He had 27 in 2023 with the receivers who led the league in drops. He had 26 last year with all the injuries around him. The Chiefs rested starters in Week 18 both years too, so he could have gotten to 28 both times with those situations.
But let’s think the offense will be at its best since 2022 this year with Mahomes coming back with a vengeance and a chip on his shoulder after that Super Bowl loss. It’s time to let it rip again, so the over 27.5 touchdowns should be one of the best NFL picks for any quarterback’s props this season.
We’re not saying Mahomes is the best pick for NFL MVP (+650 at Bet365), but he’s certainly a top contender for that award again, which would be his 3rd.
NFL Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 27.5 Passing Touchdowns (-110) at Bet365
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The Young Wide Receivers: Time to Shine
We’re looking at pair of picks for the wide receivers’ yardage this season in Kansas City:
- Rashee Rice – Over/Under 950.5 Receiving Yards
- Xavier Worthy – Over/Under 825.5 Receiving Yards
Like we just said with Mahomes this year, this should be the season where they reinvent themselves again on offense and move away from a Kelce-centric passing game and use these budding young receivers. Kelce’s line is 675.5 yards, but it’s hard to judge how a 36-year-old tight end who clearly can’t play at a high level every week anymore will do.
Instead, it’s more logical to bet on Mahomes getting his wideouts involved as Rice and Worthy barely played together last year, and now they get to go into a season where they’re not just rookies trying to learn on the fly.
Rice looked fantastic early last year when Mahomes was finding him frequently on quick passes and over the middle of the field. It was a big blow when he tore his ACL, which happened on a freak play when Mahomes tried tackling a defender and crashed into Rice’s knee. Rice had 288 yards (72.0 per game) and he wasn’t even able to play a full 4 games.
Rice had 938 yards as a rookie. I think he cracks his first 1,000-yard season this year as the No. 1 receiver in this offense.
As for Worthy, he stepped up down the stretch and finished with 638 yards as a receiver and a league-high 287 yards in the playoffs. Hopefully Mahomes and Worthy will put in the work this summer to connect on those deep balls, and hopefully the Chiefs try to use him more in the middle of the field. Avoid that tightrope on the sideline.
While Kelce’s presence and the return of Hollywood Brown does complicate things for these players, they are the future in Kansas City. Kelce and Brown are not, so they need to do big things for this offense to create a new version of itself as things have gotten a bit stale the last few years.
That’s why we’re banking on Rice and Worthy to both go over and possibly both reach 1,000 yards this year.
NFL Pick: Rashee Rice Over 950.5 Receiving Yards (-105) at Bet365
NFL Pick: Xavier Worthy Over 825.5 Receiving Yards (-110) at Bet365
2025 Chiefs Regular Season Wins – Over/Under 11.5 Wins
The 2025 Chiefs currently have the following odds at Bet365 for their season win total:
- Over 11.5 wins (+100)
- Under 11.5 wins (-130)
We know the floor for the Chiefs has been 11 wins in the Mahomes era, and they are slightly favored to finish under 11.5 wins this season. They were 15-1 with starters last year, but Mahomes did lead 7 game-winning drives to get to that number.
Teams who do such things usually regress to the mean the following year, but the Chiefs have been down this road before. In 2020, they also won 7 straight games by 1-7 points (NFL record), a season where they also beat Buffalo in the AFC title game before the offensive line was dominated in a Super Bowl loss.
The next season (2021), the Chiefs started 3-4 before rallying to finish 12-5, so they’ve done it before. Still, the schedule is tough this year when your division had 2 other playoff teams last year in the Chargers and Broncos, and the Raiders should be better after adding Pete Carroll, Geno Smith, and Ashton Jeanty to go with tight end Brock Bowers and Maxx Crosby.
Then you have to play the NFC East, which has the NFC finalists (Philadelphia and Washington) from last year, and the Chiefs will be in Dallas for Thanksgiving. They have to host the Lions in Week 6, another 15-2 team from last year. They go to Buffalo in November and the Chiefs haven’t been able to beat the Bills in the regular season since 2020.
It’s tough, but if this team can get to the Week 10 bye in decent shape, then the home stretch looks less daunting and they can clean up in the wins department from there. Frankly, the biggest concern may be in Week 1 against the Chargers as that game is in Brazil, and last year the field conditions were not good in that game and the Packers had some big injuries; namely Jordan Love. You have to hope the Chiefs escape that one healthy and with a big win to start the year.
But with even odds and the expectations for a more explosive offense, we’ll trust Mahomes to get to 12+ wins for the over.
NFL Pick: 2025 Chiefs Over 11.5 Wins (+100) at Bet365
2025 Chiefs – Division Outcome
We certainly see the Chiefs making the playoffs again as they have -400 odds for that. Then barring a transformation of Bo Nix into Drew Brees in Denver, they should still finish on top of the AFC West for the 10th year in a row. That’s one of those situations where you have to keep picking them until someone proves they can dethrone them.
NFL Pick: 2025 AFC West Winner – Kansas City Chiefs (-110) at Bet365
2025 Chiefs – Season Outcome
Getting the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl at +800 odds is pretty good value compared to where they were going into the last few seasons as one of the favorites. The Chiefs have already made history by appearing in 5-of-6 Super Bowls, so going to a 4th straight would tie the 1990-93 Bills for a record, and going to 6-of-7 would be another record for this team.
I think you can pick the Chiefs to win the AFC Championship Game again, but trusting this team to prevail in the Super Bowl is a bit hard right now. The NFC teams have always had more talent than them, and they usually have the stronger defense that can do the things it needs to do to get after Mahomes, who will have to start a 6th Super Bowl with a 6th-different left tackle when he gets back to the big game.
The Chiefs may have landed a good tackle in the draft in Josh Simmons, who slid because of injury. It’s hard to trust a rookie tackle in a Super Bowl team, but the Chiefs have made many things work during this run.
Still, despite a storybook ending for Kelce on the big stage, I would stop short of picking this team to outright win it all at Super Bowl LX. They may need some trial and error with their new offensive approach, and don’t discount the impact the schedule will have as a team like Buffalo gets to host all of its toughest opponents, which could help them get a No. 1 seed for a change.
But as always, the Chiefs will draw plenty of ratings and discussion every week, and you know Mahomes will keep them competitive. Without that three-peat pressure and the sting of getting blown out against the Eagles, who very well could see them again in February, you have to like this team’s chances to give it another go at a Super Bowl.
NFL Pick: 2025 AFC Championship Winner – Kansas City Chiefs (+300) at Bet365
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