The Las Vegas Raiders haven’t won a playoff game in over 20 years, and few are expecting that drought to end this season given the fact they share an AFC West with a trio of teams that made the playoffs last year.
But the Raiders should be more competitive than the 4-13 product they put on the field last year. They at least know who their quarterback is after acquiring Geno Smith from the Seahawks, and they’ve reunited him with the coach he’s had his best success with in Pete Carroll, the oldest coach in NFL history as he’ll be 74 this season.
The Raiders also used their No. 6 pick in the draft on Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty, who was the Heisman Trophy runner-up and is a fascinating back to go along with an offense that just saw tight end Brock Bowers break rookie records for his position.
The offense is going to help this team stick around in more games this season, and they could even get in some shootouts if Smith adjusts quickly to his new surroundings in an offense expected to be fast-paced with offensive coordinator Chip Kelly returning to the NFL coaching ranks for the first time since 2016.
Before heading to the top-rated sportsbooks, let’s look at our favorite props and team picks for how the Raiders will fare in 2025.
Picks Summary:
- Geno Smith Over 3575.5 Passing Yards (-110)
- Brock Bowers Over 4.5 Receiving Touchdowns (-110)
- Ashton Jeanty Over 1050.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
- 2025 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Winner – Ashton Jeanty (+275)
- 2025 Raiders Under 7.5 Wins (-185)
- 2025 AFC West Division Finishing Position – Raiders in 4th (-145)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
2025 American Football Conference Winners Odds
Geno Let It Sling—Chip’s Raiders Built to Chuck
- Over/Under 3575.5 Passing Yards
While teams coached by Pete Carroll have a reputation for establishing the run, let’s not pretend he hasn’t featured some strong and prolific passing attacks at USC and Seattle in his heydays. Also, when Geno Smith is your quarterback, you are going to do your share of pocket passing at volume.
Smith passed for 4,282 yards in the 2022 season when Carroll replaced Russell Wilson with him as Seattle’s new starter. Smith also led the NFL in completion percentage (69.8%) and made the Pro Bowl after throwing 30 touchdowns. It was also enough to get the Seahawks in the playoffs.
The next 2 seasons, including 2024 with Carroll no longer his coach, Smith regressed a little in his efficiency, but he still threw for 248.3 yards per game, which works out to 4220 yards on a 17-game pace. Smith has only missed 4 games to injury in the 5 seasons where he was a full-time starter in the NFL, so he’s usually a durable pocket passer.
Geno’s Got Weapons—and a Green Light to Launch
With the Raiders, Smith is going to see a decline in the wide receiver talent around him, but don’t sleep on Jakobi Meyers being a reliable 1,000-yard receiver for him. He already broke 1,000 yards last year with far worse quarterback play in Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew.
The Raiders also have some young talent to explore like Tre Tucker, and they drafted Jack Bech in the 2nd round and got a potential hidden gem in the 4th round in Dont’e Thornton Jr., who can run a 4.3 40-yard dash at 6’5”.
However, Brock Bowers is the best weapon in this passing game, and look for Geno to hook up with him often.
They are also a safe bet to run a faster pace of offense this year with Chip Kelly calling the shots. In 2013 with the Eagles, Kelly’s passing game produced that 27 touchdown to 2 interception season from Nick Foles, and in 2014, he got 268.7 passing yards per game from Mark Sanchez, a poor quarterback.
The Raiders are going to throw the ball with impunity, and don’t forget they likely still have the worst defense in the AFC West and will have to keep up with their opponents by throwing the ball.
Geno Smith is a very good choice for hitting his over in passing yards this season.
NFL Pick: Geno Smith Over 3575.5 Passing Yards (-110) at Bet365
New QB, Same Beast—Brock Bowers Breaking the Plane
- Over/Under 4.5 Receiving Touchdowns
Brock Bowers was even better than advertised in 2024, as he was already named an All-Pro as a rookie. He might even be the best tight end in the NFL already, with respect to George Kittle, when you consider how Travis Kelce is going on 36 and has slowed down.
Bowers had volume on a bad team in his favor last year, but who is to say something similar doesn’t happen this season with better quarterback play to help him out? He had 153 targets and is used to being his team’s No. 1 option, going back to his days at Georgia, where he won national championships.
Bowers had 112 catches for 1,194 yards and 5 touchdowns last year. Is he a good bet to go over 1,000 yards again, as his line is set at 1000.5? Yeah, I’d say he is. But I think with the better quarterback play, you could see Bowers hit 5 touchdowns before he hits 1,000 yards this season as Smith should look for him in the red zone, and he also showed he can make big catches down the field last year.
Smith played with some pretty random tight ends in Seattle. Even AJ Barner caught 4 touchdowns from him last year. But when you give him Bowers as his best receiving option, he should find him for at least a handful of touchdowns this year.
NFL Pick: Brock Bowers Over 4.5 Receiving Touchdowns (-110) at Bet365
Best NFL Futures Betting Sites
SELECT SCORE:
5
SELECT SCORE:
5
- Dynamic Betting Variety
- User-Friendly Interface
- Daily Odds Boosts
- Multilingual Support
SELECT SCORE:
5
SELECT SCORE:
5
- Bettor-friendly Platform
- Robust Search and Filter Tools
- Comprehensive Betting Resources
- Personalized Promotions
Jeanty Duty: Raiders’ Rookie About to Run Wild
- Over/Under 1050.5 Rushing Yards
- Offensive Rookie of the Year
We used to annually get the “best running back since Adrian Peterson” talk in the draft each year, but that’s quieted down a bit in recent years as workhorse backs have been devalued by the NFL.
But maybe that’s changing again after a 2024 season where Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry were dynamite for their new teams, and no one blinked an eye when the Raiders took Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty with the No. 6 pick in April.
He is the favorite to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year (+275), and here’s why he’s a good pick for that given the competition:
- The field is not strong with wide receivers unlikely to be clear No. 1 options like last year when we had Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr., Ladd McConkey, etc.
- No tight end or offensive lineman has ever won the award.
- Quarterback Cam Ward (Titans) is one of the few contenders, but unless he pulls a C.J. Stroud (2023) or Jayden Daniels (2024), it’s hard to see him winning it on a Tennessee team that needs a ton of work.
- Having a good team record is less important for a running back to win this award than it would be for a quarterback where it’s sometimes central to the argument.
As for the reasons Jeanty should excel in Vegas, let’s remember that Chip Kelly wants a high snap count, and he wants a strong running game. With the 2013 Eagles, LeSean McCoy had the best season of his career with a rushing title (1,607 yards) and the most yards from scrimmage (2,146) that season.
New-Look Raiders Offense Has Jeanty Written All Over It
Jeanty is unlikely to win the rushing title if only because the Raiders will likely trail too often for that, but he should be able to clear 1050.5 rushing yards as the lead back in an offense that’s improved in most areas.
Jeanty rushed for 2,601 yards at Boise State last year. Absurd numbers to go along with his 29 rushing touchdowns. He won’t sniff that against NFL competition in 2025, but you don’t take him No. 6 unless you plan to make him a workhorse, and the Raiders certainly need it after getting so little from the ground attack last year with random backs after Josh Jacobs went to Green Bay.
The marriage of Kelly and Jeanty should be a strong one, and if he can rush for over 1,100 yards and double-digit touchdowns while offering some great highlight plays, that should be enough to get him the OROY award too.
NFL Pick: Ashton Jeanty Over 1050.5 Rushing Yards (-110) at Bet365
NFL Pick: 2025 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Winner – Ashton Jeanty (+275) at Bet365
2025 Raiders Regular Season Wins: More Leak Than Fortress
- Over 7.5 wins (+150)
- Under 7.5 wins (-185)
No need to sugarcoat things.
The 2024 Raiders had an abysmal plan with making Antonio Pierce their coach with a quarterback battle between Minshew and O’Connell. The 2025 Raiders come in with a much better plan of reuniting Carroll and Geno, but if we’re being honest about them too, that’s usually only good for sticking around .500.
However, in the Raiders’ case this year, they join a division that the Chiefs have won 9 years in a row.
It’s arguably the best division ever for head coaches with the success of Carroll, Andy Reid, Jim Harbaugh, and Sean Payton. It could also be one of the best ever for quarterback play if Bo Nix continues developing in Denver after he threw 29 touchdowns as a rookie, which is only bested by Justin Herbert (31) of the Chargers.
That Mahomes guy also threw 50 touchdowns in his 1st year as a starter in 2018.
Even With Carroll, Vegas Defense Remains a Liability
Unfortunately, the Raiders may still have the worst defense in the division after signing some free agents of low-impact value from other teams this spring to join forces with Maxx Crosby, their only elite player. The elephant in the room is that Carroll hasn’t coached a top 10 defense since 2016, which is part of why the Seahawk stopped advancing far in the playoffs.
Then there’s the schedule outside of the division. The Raiders have to play the NFC East, which has the finalists from the title game last year, and the Cowboys should be better this year with a healthy Dak Prescott and a new coach.
A 7-10 finish is certainly possible as Carroll will make this team more competitive. But when you’re lacking this much in a stacked division, it’s hard to trust a team like this to go 8-9 or better, so we’ll confidently take the under with the juice on the odds.
NFL Pick: 2025 Raiders Under 7.5 Wins (-185) at Bet365
2025 Raiders – Division Finish
With a record no better than 7-10, the Raiders won’t make the playoffs in 2025.
You can bet on that market (-450), but those odds are generally not any fun to bet on. Instead, you should look at betting on exactly where the Raiders finish in the AFC West in 2025, which has the current odds:
- 4th (-145)
- 3rd (+240)
- 2nd (+550)
- 1st (+1600)
There will come a day where the Chiefs take a step back, but there’s no logical reason to expect it to be this year. They’ll finish ahead of the Raiders again.
Chargers, Broncos, Chiefs All Outpacing the Raiders
The Chargers have Herbert and Harbaugh in Year 2, and they were already 11-6 with the No. 1 scoring defense last year despite Herbert not trusting any of his receivers but Ladd McConkey, a rookie. Harbaugh hasn’t finished worse than 8-8 in the NFL and that should continue this year unless Najee Harris invites the whole team to a fireworks celebration for Labor Day.
The Broncos have a better defense than the Raiders, arguably improved it with Dre Greenlaw and a first-round corner, and they got their running back in the 2nd round (R.J. Harvey) to give them a more formidable ground game around Bo Nix, who has a great offensive line and coaching mind in Payton supporting him.
The AFC West very well may not get 3 playoff teams again in 2025, but the gaps in the division are still big enough to trust that the Raiders should bring up the rear and finish in 4th place again for your NFL picks.
In fact, I like the value on the Raiders finishing last (-145 at Bet365) more than I like the under 7.5 wins (-185) as you could theoretically see them finish 8-9 and in last place behind the Chargers (9-8 or better), Broncos (10-7 or better), and Chiefs (12-5 or better).
NFL Pick: 2025 AFC West Division Finishing Position – Raiders in 4th (-145) at Bet365
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
