NHL Stanley Cup Finals Computer Pick for June 12: Florida Panthers Lay Down the Hammer

Hard to Keep a Good Thing Down

The Florida Panthers are the ultimate package and they have everything going for them.

Not only are the Panthers the reigning Stanley Cup Champions (having already beaten the Oilers in last season’s final), but they have a confidence and strength that’s hard to match. Their style of play can be very intense and, at times, overwhelming (just ask the Oilers about the previous game).

Yes, the Panthers didn’t have a chart-topping regular season, but boy oh boy, did they bring their A-game when it mattered most. And they now find themselves with a 2-1 series lead in this year’s finals and have home ice advantage yet again tonight.

Marchand Slots Right In

It also seems that the Brad Marchand trade has been a hit with the team, as Marchand has seamlessly fit into the team and their system. Marchand has scored 18 points in 20 playoff games (the 3rd most on the Panthers team) and has scored only two points less than their top post-season scorer, Sam Bennett.

Poor Discipline Lets Oilers Down

The Edmonton Oilers can only blame themselves for the 6-1 defeat last time out, having given up 11 penalties throughout the game (in which the Panthers scored on three of them). The Panthers don’t give up easy leads, and it was smooth sailing from their point of view, having taken a 2-0 lead in the first period.

The Oilers scored early in the second period to give themselves some hope, cutting the deficit to just one goal. But that didn’t last long — the Panthers stormed right back up the ice and scored twice within five minutes of the Oilers’ goal, leaving Edmonton red-faced after briefly clawing back into the game. Suddenly down 4–1, the Oilers were in deep trouble — and let’s be honest, no team is coming back from a three-goal deficit in half a game against this Panthers squad.

Edmonton & Florida Trends & Facts

• Edmonton is 1-6 in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Florida.
• The total has gone Under in 6 of Edmonton’s last 9 games against an opponent in the Eastern Conference.
• Florida is 15-5 in its last 20 games at home.
• The total has gone Over in 5 of Florida’s last 6 games.

The Pick

The Florida Panthers have been very strong on home ice recently and are 6-1 against the Oilers when facing them on their own ice. All the stats and trends point towards a Florida Panthers win on home ice tonight and our computer is predicting a 4-2 Panthers victory.

The question is, do we want to lay the -135 for Florida to do the business? Arguably, we believe the Panthers should win tonight, but the Oilers are a much stronger team than last season, and the +135 moneyline odds are tempting.

All said and done, we believe the Under 6.5 goals to be the best pick ahead of tonight’s game. Not only does it align with our computer pick, but we have to believe both teams will be calling for more discipline.

Although the Under has only hit in 6 of the Oilers’ 20 playoff games to date, we are hoping their desperation comes into play, as they know that keeping the scoreline down is the key to beating the Panthers. One can never guarantee a feast of goals against Sergei Bobrovsky and this Panthers defense.

NHL Pick: Under 6.5 Goals (-125) at Bet365

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