The Indiana Pacers are just one win away from making it into the NBA Finals. However, they’ll be on the road in Game 5 against the New York Knicks, which won’t make it easy.
Ultimately, the Pacers added back-to-back road wins to begin this series. They’ve had success in Madison Square Garden during the playoffs. However, with all hands on deck, the expectation at the top-rated sportsbooks is that the Knicks lock in and force a Game 6.
Picks Summary:
- Knicks -4 (-110)
- Under 223.5 (-112)
- Bennedict Mathurin Over 9.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-120)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Indiana Pacers vs. New York Knicks
Thursday, May 29, 2025 – 08:00 PM EDT at Madison Square Garden
Our AI Model suggests the Knicks will win 113-108 over the Pacers tonight. Meanwhile, the Knicks are -4 (-110) and would cover against the spread with that five-point projected win.
In addition, our model believes the Under 223.5 is the right play since the projected total is just 221. That’s another top-tier play for tonight’s Game 5 matchup.
That said, if you’re looking for a player prop, consider Bennedict Mathurin to add at least 10 points + rebounds + assists. Our AI Model thinks he’ll achieve 11.59 points + rebounds + assists after putting up 20 points alone in Game 4. At -120, you can’t go wrong with backing the Over 9.5 points + rebounds + assists here.
What Do The Knicks Need To Do Tonight?
The New York Knicks struggled to defend the Pacers in Game 4. They also turned the ball over too much and conceded 20 points off turnovers. That was the difference in the game. The Knicks lost by nine points and gave up 11 points off turnovers and 22 fast-break points.
The Pacers aim to initiate the fast break and score quickly. Ultimately, the Pacers didn’t do that in Game 3 but got back to regularly scheduled programming in Game 4. They added 12 more assists, shot 51.1% from the field and added way more fast break points, forced more turnovers and scored more in the paint.
The Knicks have to slow the game down and defend. New York needs to make the Pacers uncomfortable. The Pacers aren’t worried about getting mismatches anymore. They’re concerned about finding quick, open looks.
Indiana excelled in Game 4, but the Knicks should have some adjustments prepared for Game 5.
Slow The Game Down!
As suggested earlier, the Knicks need to slow the pace of the game. The Pacers move fast, and when they move fast, they’re able to get easy buckets around the rim or from downtown. The Knicks struggled in transition defense in Game 4 and had difficulty maintaining consistency on the offensive end.
While the Knicks consistently got to the foul line, New York shot 46.3% from the floor. It’s not a terrible number, but it won’t win games when the opposition shoots over 50% from the floor. New York should be strong on the glass, and if they’re able to force more difficult shots and make the Pacers use a lot of the shot clock, this game should get under the total with ease.
The Knicks must dictate this game. If they do, the Knicks will likely win and keep the score lower.
The Pacers Should Give Bennedict Mathurin More Run!
Bennedict Mathurin has had two games with at least 12 points + rebounds + assists in the first four games of this series. He’s made little impact in Games 2 and 3, but scored 20 points in Game 4 despite playing 12.5 minutes in that game. His usage rate rose to 43.7% and he reached the foul line 11 times.
While sometimes getting to the foul line is a bit of luck, the Knicks rank 26th in free throw attempts to small forwards this season. Mathurin getting to the foul line is on brand with what the Knicks have done defensively all year.
Mathurin could ultimately add at least ten points alone. We may not need rebounds and assists for Mathurin to add at least 10 points + rebounds + assists.
The Picks
Consider using a same-game parlay for these bets or bet all of them straight. The AI Model has been cooking!
- Knicks -4 (-110)
- Under 223.5 (-112)
- Bennedict Mathurin Over 9.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-120)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
